Giants

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (13-0) at New York Giants (6-7)

The Panthers are 13-0, but don’t expect them to take their foot off their gas, at least not this week and, if their rhetoric is to be believed, not at any point. This week, they can clinch a first round bye with a win and the #1 seed with a win and an Arizona loss. They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but that shouldn’t be the end of the world. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 18th.

The Giants are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have 5 losses by 4 points or fewer, and have a +18 point differential, despite a 6-7 record. However, their turnover margin on the season is +10 and there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. The Panthers are also arguably the toughest opponent they’ve faced all season, so this line is too low at 4.

The Panthers are also in a great spot. While the Giants have to turn around and play in Minnesota next week, another tough game, the Panthers go to Atlanta to play the Falcons, who they just clobbered last week and against whom they’re projected to be 6.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

On top of that, teams are 46-31 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point road favorites. There’s an argument to be made that the Panthers should be favored by 6 or more here and favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012. The Panthers don’t fit that trend, but the logic applies. Superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. The Panthers should win this by at least a touchdown and continue their undefeated season.

Carolina Panthers 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-8)

The Giants host the Panthers next week (against whom they’ll be 3.5 point home underdogs), so they could easily be caught looking forward to that game this week, when they face the Dolphins in Miami, a game in which they’re favored by 2.5. Road favorites like the Giants are 32-46 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Combining the two, teams are 55-82 ATS as road favorites before being 3+ point home underdogs since 1989.

We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. While the Dolphins rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, the Giants aren’t much better at 26th, as they’ve been overly reliant on winning the turnover margin this season. Their turnover margin on the season is great at +10, but there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. Despite that, the public is all over the Giants, probably because they don’t know that. The only thing stopping me from being confident in the Dolphins is the fact that the Giants are 60-40 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004). If the line moves to a field goal, I’d consider putting money on the Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Giants 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Miami +2.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at New York Giants: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Giants, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (6-5) at New York Giants (5-6)

This is technically a home game for the Giants, but considering they’re playing the Jets, with whom they share a stadium, it’s tough to consider this a true home game. The Giants’ season ticket holders will be there and the Giants will have control of the stadium (telling the fans to get loud and be quiet at the appropriate times), but there should also be plenty of Jets fans in the crowd and the Jets are probably going to be pretty comfortable waking up in their own beds and going to play a “road game” in MetLife Stadium.

I went back into the history of this matchup to see if the home team does noticeably better than the road team. Unfortunately, it’s a small sample size, as this is just the 7th time these teams have met since 1989. The road team is 2-4, getting outscored by 1.67 points per game, but the Giants have pretty much always dominated this matchup, winning 5 of 6 by an average of 7.50 points per game. That doesn’t really tell us much so I’m going to conservatively give the Giants one point for homefield advantage. The Giants have never had much of a homefield advantage anyway in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era (since 2004), going 54-43 (47-50 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents by 2.65 points per game, as opposed to 55-46 (60-40 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by 0.11 points per game.

While the Giants have traditionally dominated this matchup, the Jets are the better team right now. They rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 24th. The Jets have outscored their opponents by 44 points on the season, with a +4 turnover margin, while the Giants have only managed +14 with a +10 turnover margin. It’s so tough to rely on winning the turnover margin every week, so I favor a team like the Jets over a team like the Giants by a lot.

The Jets are missing cornerback Darrelle Revis with a concussion for the 2nd straight week, but their offense was so much better last week with center Nick Mangold back and that can’t be ignored. Given that the Giants are only getting 1 point for homefield advantage, this line is way too low at 2. Anything up to a field goal is good value with the Jets, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I wouldn’t venture beyond 3 with the Jets with any sort of confidence, in case this line starts to climb. I like them at 2 though.

New York Jets 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-5) at Washington Redskins (4-6)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Giants have always been a very good road team in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, going 60-39 ATS on the road over that time period, including 51-32 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 3 or fewer, as they are here (favorites of 3 points). On top of that, they’re coming off of a bye and road favorites of 3+ are 42-13 ATS coming off of a bye, including 22-5 ATS in a divisional matchup.

However, the Giants are also overrated. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago and has since jumped to a field goal, a significant line movement considering that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. Despite that, the public is still all over the Giants. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. By taking Washington here, I’d be able to do both.

The line moved as a result of the Redskins 44-16 loss in Carolina last week. That was bad and the Redskins aren’t a great team or anything, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Giants rank 23rd, so they’re not any better. They’ve been able to go 5-5 despite that, because they’ve won the turnover battle by 13 on the season (best in the NFL), but turnovers are hard to rely on every week. The correlation between a team’s turnover margin in one game and its turnover margin in the next game is virtually non-existent. There’s a very good argument to be made that the Giants don’t deserve to be 3 point road favorites here (especially with Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, two key offensive linemen out with injury), despite how good they typically are on the road, which would nullify the aforementioned trend about significant road favorites off of a bye. I’m still taking the Giants, but I’m not confident at all.

New York Giants 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at New York Giants: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (8-0) at New York Giants (5-4)

The Giants have a winning record, but this line might not be high enough at 7.5. The Giants are not nearly as good as their record, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, largely as a result of a defense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Injuries have ravaged a group that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Middle linebacker Jon Beason is out for the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara remains out. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul returned last week, but it’s still unclear how effective he can be after blowing off part of his hand in the off-season. On top of that, the Giants lost talented defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins for the season last week.

The Giants have had success in the win/loss column this season, largely because of a +12 turnover margin, but that kind of thing is very tough to count on every week. The correlation between a team’s turnover margin in one game and its turnover margin in the next game is virtually non-existent. Even if that wasn’t true, their odds of being able to force multiple turnovers against a New England team that has 5 all season aren’t very good. The Giants are going to have a very hard time getting the Patriots off the field. They rank 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains and 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential.

It does help the Giants that the Patriots’ offense is really banged up. Running back Dion Lewis is out for the season and their top 3 offensive tackles, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, and Marcus Cannon are also out for this one, leaving the Patriots with a very weak offensive line and without their top checkdown option. However, the Giants’ defense is so weak that it might not matter much. Defensively, the Patriots are expected to get top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard back from a 3 game absence, but talented linebacker Jamie Collins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. This line, at the very least, is appropriate, given the talent disparity between these two teams and the ease with which the Patriots should put up points.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, with a home game against the Bills on deck. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The Patriots are also 52-28 ATS in the Bill Belichick era against a team that beat them in their previous matchup, as the Giants did in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Patriots, especially with the public all over them and the Patriots’ injury situation looming larger than it has all season, but they should be able to put up a bunch of points and cover this spread.

New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

The Buccaneers have not had much homefield advantage over the past few years. Since 2009, they are 15-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.10 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 16-34 ATS at home over that time period. On the other side, the Giants typically travel well in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004), going 60-39 ATS on the road over that time period.

It also helps the Giants that they’re in their 2nd straight road game. Road favorites are 49-34 ATS off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game.

The spread, 2.5 in favor of the visiting Giants, does seem to take that into account though, at least somewhat. The Buccaneers aren’t very good, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, but neither are the Giants, who rank 24th. The Buccaneers and the Giants rank last and 2nd to last respectively in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season, so this could definitely be a shootout that goes back and forth. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Buccaneers, because about one in six games is decided by a field goal, but we’re not really getting much, if any, line value with the Giants, despite their road prowess and the Buccaneers’ home struggles. The public is also all over the Giants, which makes the Buccaneers a more attractive option, considering the public always loses money in the long run.

The Giants are getting defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul back this week, after he missed the first 8 games of the season, following an off-season firework accident. However, it’s unclear what he can give them in his first game back, as he adjusts to playing with a mangled hand, and the Giants still have a bunch of injuries, with middle linebacker Jon Beason, cornerback Prince Amukamara, and wide receiver Victor Cruz all still out. The Buccaneers have a fair amount of injuries as well, with wide receiver Vincent Jackson, defensive end Jacquies Smith, and safety Major Wright all out, but, like the Giants, they’ve dealt with injuries all season, so this is nothing new.

The Giants are also in an awful spot, hosting the Patriots next week, arguably the toughest game of their season. The early line has them as 6.5 point home underdogs in that one. Road favorites are 30-45 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 41-80 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, 21-52 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+, and 13-30 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, over that same time period. Combining the two, road favorites are 10-27 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs of 6+.

The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are in a good spot, off of an overtime win in Atlanta last week. Teams tend to carry over that momentum as teams are 57-41 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs. There’s enough here for me to put money on the Buccaneers. This will be an even higher confidence pick if the line moves to a field goal or more before game time, which it could. Don’t lock this one in until tomorrow morning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-4)

The Saints were only 2 point favorites in this one last week, but, after their upset victory in Indianapolis, this line moved to 3.5, significant, considering 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. Typically, I like to go against these line movements because I think they’re based on week-to-week overreactions, but, this week, I’m not so sure. The Saints have a worse record than the Giants, but they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 23rd, so we might still be getting line value with the Saints. The Giants have been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin, which is tough to count on every week. For example, they beat the Cowboys by a touchdown last week because they won the turnover battle by 4, which increases a team’s chances of winning to 95.5%. However, teams that win the turnover battle by 4, on average have a +0.0 turnover margin the following week. They’ll probably have to find a different way to win in this one and they might not find one.

Then again, the Saints aren’t very good so it might not take much to beat them. None of that is enough to take the Saints with any sort of confidence. The Saints are also pretty banged up, missing linebackers David Hawthorne and Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Keenan Lewis, well paid veteran starters. However, this is true of the Giants too, as they’re missing cornerback Prince Amukamara, wide receiver Victor Cruz, and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. Both teams have struggled with injuries all season though, so there really isn’t any sort of tiebreaker here.

This is the closest game of the week for me, as there isn’t a clear better side at all. The line’s a little off in New Orleans’ favor, but not measurably. Both teams are banged up. They also have similarly easy games on deck, as the Saints host the Titans and the Giants go to Tampa Bay. New Orleans has enjoyed a great homefield advantage in recent years, going 35-17 ATS since 2008, excluding the season Sean Payton wasn’t on the sideline. However, the Giants have enjoyed equally impressive success against the spread on the road in recent years, going 59-39 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (since 2004). I’m going with the Giants because the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, but this one is as tight as it gets. I like that I get field goal protection with the Giants. If this line shifts significantly, I’d probably have a different pick. I’m expecting a field goal game.

New Orleans Saints 27 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3)

The Giants have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era.  They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-44 (59-39 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.16 points per game. On the other side, the Cowboys are 22-22 at home (14-30 ATS) since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.32 points per game, as opposed to 23-20 on the road (25-17 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 0.26 points per game. The road team generally tends to do well in NFC East matchups overall anyway, for what that’s worth. The road team in NFC East divisional matchups is 37-54 ATS since 2008. On top of that, the Cowboys are 12-3 ATS as 3.5+ point road underdogs since 2010 (4-0 ATS in the division).

However, this line has moved from 5.5 in favor of the Giants last week in the early line to 3.5 now. That cost us a lot of line value. This line is probably still a little bit too high, considering how well the Cowboys typically travel, how little homefield advantage the Giants have, and the fact that the Cowboys rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 19th. We’re just not really getting enough value with the Cowboys to be too confident in them, especially considering the Cowboys are a publicly backed underdog (which I like to avoid), and considering the Cowboys host the Seahawks next week. The Cowboys are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs in that one. Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 39-84 ATS over that same time period before being 6+ point home underdogs. I’m still taking the Cowboys, but I’m not confident at all.

New York Giants 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Eagles are favored here by 4.5 on Monday Night Football, pretty reasonable when you consider that the Eagles rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 16th. However, the Giants are in such a great spot here, hosting a weakened Cowboys team in New York next week, while the Eagles have to go to Carolina to face a Panther team that is currently undefeated. The Giants will be favorites and the Eagles will be underdogs, the opposite of what we have here. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Giants also typically travel well, at least they have since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. They are also 12-5 ATS as divisional road favorites of 3.5+ points over that time period.

The Giants are pretty banged up, which is why this isn’t a higher confidence pick, but they’ve dealt with injuries all season and have been fine (as have the Eagles defensively, without middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso). Left tackle William Beatty, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, and wide receiver Victor Cruz will all miss their 6th straight week to start the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara adds to the injury list, as he’ll be out for a few weeks with a pectoral injury, but top pass rusher defensive end Robert Ayers returns from injury. Star wide receiver Odell Beckham hasn’t practiced all week, but is still expected to play on Monday Night, though he could be slowed after aggravating his nagging hamstring problems. I still like getting the 4.5 points with the Giants a lot.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at New York Giants (2-2)

The Giants have rebounded from an 0-2 start, winning the last two games and putting themselves in good position to win the wide open NFC East. Some are even pointing out that the Giants could easily be 4-0, which is true, as their losses to Atlanta and Dallas were both close, but they certainly haven’t played like a 4-0 team, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. This team does a lot of good things, but they’re missing too many key contributors with injury (William Beatty, Jason Pierre-Paul, Victor Cruz, Robert Ayers) to be a good team. They’ve been overly reliant on a +6 turnover margin, which is something that’s hard to count on in any given week.

The Giants are coming off the most impressive game of their season, a 24-10 win in Buffalo against a Bills team that was considered pretty good going into the game, but now they return home and they’ve never had much of a homefield advantage in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, dating back to 2004. They are 52-42 (45-49 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. The 49ers also have a huge advantage because they’re a West Coast team at night playing an East Coast team. Teams tend to cover the spread about 65% of the time in that situation because, while this is essentially a late afternoon game for the 49ers, it’s a late night game for the Giants.

All of that being said, I’m going with the Giants here. The 49ers are awful, one of the worst teams in the NFL, after all of their off-season losses. They’ve lost their last 3 games by a combined 79 points, after a random week 1 home win 20-3 over a solid Vikings team. Despite that fluky week 1 win, they’re still 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants aren’t great and don’t have a great homefield advantage, especially at night against a West Coast team, but this line is still more than reasonable. I’m not confident, but they should be the right side.

New York Giants 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -7

Confidence: None

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