NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

The Packers lost last week in Detroit, but they still won the first down rate battle by +4.82% and had 30 first downs to 18 for the Lions. They lost because of 4 missed field goals and 3 lost fumbles, but still managed to keep it an 8-point game, so they could have easily won if they didn’t make so many mistakes. This week, they return home, where they have been much better in recent years, going 36-17 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers since 2011.

The Packers also have a much easier opponent this week, as the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league without Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Packers are in a great spot going into a bye. Favorites of 6 or more tend to take care of business going into a bye, going 38-16 ATS since 2014, including 28-11 ATS at home. The Packers are favored by 9.5 here, but, considering how bad the 49ers are, I think that line is short and we are getting good line value with the hosts, who could easily be favored by 12-13 points in this one. The Packers should win this one with ease and cover in the process.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: High

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)

This line was -3 in favor of Cincinnati last week on the early line, but it has since shifted to -1.5, as a result of Pittsburgh’s big 41-17 win over the Falcons last week. After a rough start to the season, the people seem to be back to thinking the Steelers are a top AFC contender, so they are overrated again. As impressive as their win last week was, it came at home against an Atlanta team that is mediocre without all of the players they are missing due to injury.

It was also just their third win by more than a touchdown since the midway point of last season, a span of 14 games, and just their 6th win by more than a touchdown since the beginning of last season, with their other 9 wins coming by a combined 31 points. They’ve also still allowed 26.3 points per game in their last 10 games since losing stud linebacker Ryan Shazier to injury late last season. They held Atlanta to 17 last week, but that was just the second time in those 10 games that they’ve kept a team under 21, with the other instance coming against a TJ Yates led Texans team. Their defensive issues aren’t suddenly fixed just because of one good game.

Despite that, this line suggests the Steelers are slightly better than the hometown Bengals. Even if this line was at -3 like it was last week, suggesting these two teams are about even, we’d still be getting line value with the Bengals, who are the better team in this game. I have this line calculated at -5. The Bengals have begun the year 4-1 and rank 4th in first down rate differential at +5.38%, 8 spots better than the Steelers (+1.18%).

Even more impressive is that they’ve done that with running back Joe Mixon and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, two of their more important players, missing time with injury and suspension respectively. Both returned last week, but they should be much closer to 100% this week after being limited in their returns. The Bengals are the better team at home, so they should be able to win relatively easily, which is really all they need to do to cover this small line. I like them a lot this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1.5

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at New York Giants (1-4)

Last week, the Eagles were my Pick of the Week as 3-point home favorites against the Vikings. They lost by 2, but easily could have won. They had 2 more first downs and one more offensive touchdown than the Vikings on 6 fewer plays, a +9.03% first down rate differential, but lost because of a long defensive touchdown, a goal line fumble, and a bad roughing the passer call. As a result of that loss, the Eagles remain underrated.

Their record isn’t pretty, but they’re still a very talented group and they’re not exactly getting blown out, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 11 points. It’s not a stretch to say they could easily be 4-1 and if that were the case no one would have any concerns about them, especially with Carson Wentz continuing to round into form. The Eagles have also won the first down rate battle in 2 of those losses and have a +3.88% first down rate differential on the year, 7th in the NFL.

After briefly opening at -2.5, this line moved back to -3 in favor of the Eagles, as it was on the early line last week. Despite the lack of line movement, we are still getting good line value with the Eagles. I have this line calculated at -5.5, as the Giants are a mediocre opponent. Despite their record, the Eagles are at least comparable to the Jaguars and Saints, who have both already covered as road favorites in New York against the Giants. The Eagles should do so as well. This isn’t as big of a play as last week, but I will make this a bigger play if the line moves back down to -2.5. In some books, it’s available at -2.5 with higher juice.

Thursday Update: Lane Johnson was surprisingly added to the injury report Thursday morning with an ankle injury and is not expected to play tonight. That knocks my calculated line down to -4, but the line also dropped from 3 to 2 to compensate for Johnson’s absence, so this remains a medium confidence bet. The difference between 2 and 4 might not seem big at first, but only 4% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 24% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Eagles should be able to win this one without Johnson and as mere 2-point favorites that’s basically all they need to do to cover.

Final Update: Johnson is surprisingly active for this one. The line has stayed put at 2 despite that, but I’m hesitant to raise my bet because I’m not sure if Johnson can make it through the whole game.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: Medium

2018 Week 5 NFL Pick Results

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Week 5

Total Against the Spread: 6-9

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence Picks: 1-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 5-1

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 6-2

Low Confidence Picks: 0-3

No Confidence Picks: 0-4

Upset Picks: 1-2

2018

Total Against the Spread: 45-31-2

Pick of the Week: 2-3

High Confidence Picks: 7-3

Medium Confidence Picks: 16-8

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 25-14

Low Confidence Picks: 7-7

No Confidence Picks: 13-10-2

Upset Picks: 7-7-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 730-630-38 (53.58%)

Pick of the Week: 53-37-2 (58.70%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 355-260-14 (57.55%)

Upset Picks: 114-143-1 (44.38%)

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)

The Saints gotten off to a bit of a slow start this season, losing at home week 1 to the Buccaneers and then almost losing at the Browns at home week 2, but that’s been the case in recent years for them too and they’ve always gotten better as the season has gone on. They are just 2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, but 52-38 ATS the rest of the season. With Mark Ingram returning, this is arguably the most balanced offense in the league and the defense still has talent, even if they haven’t played all that well to begin the season. They could easily keep rolling this week.

Their opponent, the Washington Redskins, are not a pushover and this line is a decent size at 6 points, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the Saints and the Saints are in a great spot going into the bye. Favorites of 6 or more tend to take care of business going into a bye, going 37-16 ATS since 2014, including 27-11 ATS at home. The Saints have a good chance to win this one by double digits, so they’re worth a bet as anything less than touchdown favorites.

New Orleans Saints 31 Washington Redskins 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -6

Confidence: High

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)

This was the toughest game of the week for me because I have this line calculated right at -6.5, which is what this line is, and there are no strong situational advantages for either team. The Giants play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but are desperate for a win at 1-3, while the Panthers are coming off of a bye, but there’s no real evidence that teams do better after a bye in recent years. I’m taking the Panthers because I think this game is more likely to be decided by 7 points than 6, but this is my lowest confidence pick of the week.

Carolina Panthers 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at New York Jets: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)

The Jets are one of the worst teams in the league, but are strangely favored by a point at home against a decent Denver team. Under ordinary circumstances, the Broncos would be a smart bet this week, but they’re also in a tough spot, coming off of a close loss against the undefeated Chiefs, with a big home game against the undefeated Rams on deck. The Broncos are 6 point underdogs in that game on the early line and teams are just 42-77 ATS before being home underdogs of 4.5+ since 2014. The Broncos should still win this game relatively easily, but this could easily be a trap game for them so I wouldn’t recommend betting this one.

Denver Broncos 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Denver +1

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)

These two teams are pretty similar. Both have strong offenses, but struggle mightily to stop anyone. The Steelers’ defense took a bit hit when they lost linebacker Ryan Shazier to injury last season, but they were an overrated team even before that. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 13 games. Without Shazier, they’ve allowed an average of 27.33 points per game in 9 games.

The Falcons’ defensive issues are also largely due to injury, as they are missing linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen for extended periods of time and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett joins them on the sideline this week, making matters worse. Those are 4 of their best defensive players and they weren’t a great defense even with them. On offense, running back Devonta Freeman returns, but they’re still without guard Andy Levitre, so they’re not at full strength on that side of the ball either.

This line favors the Steelers by 3 at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, so we aren’t getting line value in either direction. The Falcons are in a slightly better spot though. While the Steelers have to turn around and go to Cincinnati next week, the Falcons are at home for the Buccaneers. Underdogs are 80-45 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The Steelers could have a little bit of split focus this week with the 3-1 Bengals on deck, while the Falcons should be fully focused and cannot afford to fall to 1-4 in the loaded NFC. I wouldn’t recommend betting it, but the Falcons should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Atlanta Falcons 34

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

Through 4 games, the Rams have been the undisputed top team in football. Not only do they rank first in first down rate differential, their +15.50% mark blows away 2nd place +8.37%. In addition to having the best first down rate in the league at a ridiculous 47.24%, the Rams also have the 5th best first down rate allowed in the league at 31.74%. They are one of two 4-0 teams, with an average margin of victory of 18.25 points per game. They may not be quite this dominant for the whole season and their schedule does get harder, but they are the clear team to beat after the first month of the season.

Fortunately or the Rams, their schedule does not get much harder this week. At one point, going to Seattle to face the Seahawks would have been a daunting task. The Seahawks are 44-10 (33-21 ATS) at home in the Russell Wilson era. They are not that dominant team anymore though. A roster already thinned by retirements and off-season losses got even thinner last week when they lost All-Pro safety Earl Thomas for the season. They also remain without talented every down linebacker KJ Wright, who has yet to make his season debut due to a knee injury. They rank 29th in first down rate at -4.29% and could easily be 1-3 if the Cardinals had made a pair of makeable field goals last week. 

The Seahawks have been especially good as home underdogs in the Russell Wilson era, going 4-0 ATS with 4 straight up wins by an average of 9.25 points per game, and this 7 point line is the most the Seahawks have been home underdogs by in Wilson’s entire career, but this line is totally justifiable, given the talent gap between these two teams. If anything, we’re still getting some line value with the Rams. I can’t take them with any confidence because this game could be Seattle’s Super Bowl, but I do expect the Rams to keep rolling this week.

Los Angeles Rams 28 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: None