NFL Picks

Houston Texans at New York Giants: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2)

The Giants are 6-2, but they haven’t played nearly as well as that suggests, coming from behind to barely win most of their victories. In terms of time leading, the Giants rank 4th worst in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 23rd, about three points below average, in line with my roster rankings, which have them four points below average. Unfortunately, the public and the oddsmakers seem to realize the Giants are not nearly as good as their record, with the Giants favored by just 4.5 points at home against the Texans.

The Texans are arguably the worst team in the league, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, about eight points below average. My roster rankings have them slightly better than that, about six points below average, but they are still probably the worst team in the league and my calculated line actually suggests we’re getting some line value with the Giants, calculating them as 5-point favorites. This is one of my lowest confidence picks, but I’m taking the Giants for pick ‘em purposes.

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -4.5

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (2-6) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

A week ago on the early line, the Bears were favored by 1.5 points at home in this matchup with the Lions, but now they are favored by 3, a significant swing, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. I normally like to go against significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play and I think that is the case here. The line movement is likely driven by the Bears’ near upset of the Dolphins last week, but the Lions played a close game with the Dolphins the week prior and then pulled an upset victory over the Packers last week, so it doesn’t really make sense that this line would have moved significantly.

These two teams are pretty similar, below average teams with much better offenses than defenses, but the Lions are a better version of the Bears, with a significant edge in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking two points above average, 9th best in the NFL, with the 23rd ranked Bears are 1.5 points below average. My roster rankings also support that, giving the Lions a 1.5-point edge on offense. The Lions rank dead last in defensive efficiency, so they are worse on that side of the ball, but the Bears rank 28th and have been horrendous defensively since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, so the gap isn’t much between these two defenses, with the Lions having the clear edge on offense. 

Despite the Lions being the better team, the Bears are favored by a full field goal at home, suggesting they are the better team. My calculated line is even and the Lions could easily end up pulling the upset, even if my numbers still have the Bears as slight favorites to win straight up. There isn’t quite enough here for the Lions to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Chicago Bears 28 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)

Despite their 3-6 record, the Jaguars have a positive point differential at +21 and rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average. That’s in large part due to all six of their losses being decided by eight points or fewer. The Jaguars are 9.5-point underdogs this week in Kansas City, which might seem high, given that the Jaguars have yet to be blown out, but the Jaguars rank four points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overperformed their talent level and are likely to regress going forward, and the Jaguars also haven’t played a game this tough yet.

Even after an underwhelming performance against the Titans last week, the Chiefs are still among the best teams in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Chiefs rank 3rd, about eight points above average, led by an offense that leads the league in schedule adjusted efficiency by a wide margin, and my roster rankings support that, with the Chiefs about ten points above average. Overall, my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 12, suggesting that we’re getting a little bit of line value with them as 9.5-point favorites. That’s not enough to bet on them though, especially with the Chiefs in a potential look ahead spot, with a matchup against the Chargers on deck after facing a 3-6 Jaguars team this week. I’m still taking the Chiefs, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Munich

Typically the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, who covers at a 61.9% rate historically, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like an overseas game. However, in this circumstance, the team favored by 2.5 points, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually seems like the lesser of these two teams. The Buccaneers have more name recognition, but the Seahawks have two more wins and it hasn’t been a fluke, as they rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average, which is in line with where they rank in my roster rankings. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are just two points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency (11th in the NFL) and, due to injuries, they are only a point and a half above average in my roster rankings, suggesting the Seahawks are the ones who should be favored by a couple points. There isn’t enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting unless we are getting a full field goal with them and I don’t love going against Tom Brady in this situation (45-12 ATS in his career against teams with a better record than his, 59-31 ATS as underdogs of favorites of fewer than three), but the Seahawks still seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and there is some value with the money line at +125, as the Seahawks should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)

Two weeks ago, the Panthers were 4-point underdogs in Atlanta and covered the spread in a close loss by a field goal in overtime. Given that, it’s surprising to see the Panthers as home underdogs of a full field goal in this rematch. Normally teams are given 1-2 points for homefield advantage, which would put this line at about Atlanta -1, based on Atlanta being -4 at home a couple weeks ago. Atlanta -1 was actually the line for this game on the early line last week, but it has since shifted all the way up to three.

The reason for that shift and for the line being where it is now is that the Panthers were blown out in Cincinnati last week, but I think the line movement is an overreaction, especially since the Bengals also beat the Falcons easily a few weeks ago and now have four double digit victories on the season. My calculated line is still at Atlanta -1.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Panthers, particularly when you consider that 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly. There isn’t enough here for the Panthers to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

This is one of the toughest calls of the week because there aren’t any trends related to this game and the line is right about where it should be, favoring the visiting Dolphins by 4.5 points. The Dolphins only have two more wins than the Bears, but they have been significantly better on offense when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, while the Bears lost the yards per play and first down rate battle in two of their three wins, leading to them ranking 27th in schedule adjusted efficiency, 4.5 points below average, while the Dolphins rank 16th, right about average, despite Tagovailoa missing about two and a half games. With Tagovailoa back, the Dolphins have an eight point edge over the Bears in my roster rankings. I’m taking the Dolphins for pick ‘em purposes, but I don’t have any confidence in them at this number.

Miami Dolphins 25 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -4.5

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at Washington Commanders (4-4)

Going into the season, the Vikings were one of my top underrated teams and I expected a significant improvement in win total from their 7-9 and 8-9 finishes from the previous two seasons, due to better coaching on offense and likely better health on defense. So far, the Vikings are 6-1 and exceeding most people’s expectations, but that also haven’t played quite as well as that would suggest, with five of their six wins coming by eight points or fewer and their one loss coming by 17, giving them a point differential of +29, which is good, but not as good as their record would suggest. 

The Vikings have also benefited significantly from turnovers, ranking tied for 2nd best in the NFL with a +6 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Vikings rank just 15th, about a half point above average. The Commanders also haven’t played as well as their record though, as their four wins have come by a combined 14 points and their four losses have come by a combined 44 points, giving them a point differential of -30 that ranks 5th worst in the NFL. 

With both teams not as good as their records, I actually think this line, favoring the visiting Vikings by a field goal is about right. My calculated line suggests the Vikings are more likely to cover this number than the Commanders, but not by much and the most likely outcome may be a push, given how many games are decided by exactly a field goal. I’m taking the Vikings at -3, but I would take the Commanders at +3.5.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Washington Commanders 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

This is a matchup of the previous two Super Bowl winners and a rematch of a divisional round game from a year ago when the eventual champion Rams barely got the best of the Buccaneers, in a matchup between a 12-win Rams team and a 13-win Buccaneers team. However, going into this matchup, both teams have disappointed significantly this season, with both teams sitting below .500, the Rams at 3-4 and the Buccaneers at 3-5.

The Buccaneers got off to a 2-0 start, but their offense has been middling at best all season, ranking 21st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their dominant defense that lead them to their first two victories has not been nearly as good since, in large part due to key injury absences, which will continue this week, with stud safety Antoine Winfield and top edge defender Shaq Barrett out for this game, among others. The Buccaneers offense is probably better than they’ve played so far, but they’re not the same in the receiving corps and on the offensive line as they’ve been in recent years and quarterback Tom Brady is starting to show his age, even if only a little bit, with a less impressive supporting cast.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been middling on both sides of the ball for most of the season, falling from 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency in 2021 to 16th this season and falling from 9th to 12th on defense. Their offensive problems largely stem from the off-season losses of wide receiver Odell Beckham and offensive linemen Andrew Whitworth and Austin Corbett, but they’ve also had further injuries on the offensive line that have made things worse. On defense, their dropoff has not been as pronounced, as they do seem to be feeling the effects of losing top edge defender Von Miller this off-season.

Overall, I have both teams about even in my roster rankings, which makes this a tough call. I have the Buccaneers as slightly better and this line favoring them by a field goal is what you would expect when a home team is slightly better than the road team, but my numbers have the Rams slightly more likely to cover at this number than the Buccaneers, so I am taking them for pick ‘em purposes. There’s obviously not nearly enough here to bet on either side though and a push might be the most likely outcome, given that the most likely outcome when two evenly matched teams play is the home team winning by a field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

Both of these two teams are 5-2, but they have arrived at that point in very different ways. While all five of the Titans’ wins have come by close margins, with no double digit victories, the Chiefs have three double digit victories in their five wins, which tends to be much more predictive than close wins. As a result, the Titans actually have a negative point differential at -6, while the Chiefs rank 3rd at +51. 

The gap between these two teams is even bigger than that suggests too, as the Titans have faced a significantly easier schedule and have benefited more from the turnover margin (+2 vs. 0), which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of first downs and yards per play, which are much more predictive, the Titans rank 26th in first down rate and 20th in yards per play allowed, leading to them ranking six points below average in overall schedule adjusted efficiency, about 15 points behind the Chiefs (1st in first down rate and 16th in yards per play allowed). 

The Titans are underdogs of 12.5 points in this game in Kansas City, despite their record, and they could get regular starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill back from a one-game absence, after he got some limited practice work in this week, but, even if Tannehill plays, I think we are getting some line value with the Titans, as I have this line calculated at Kansas City -15 in that case. My calculated line would shoot up to Kansas City -18.5 if Tannehill sat, leading to third round rookie Malik Willis making his second career start after an underwhelming debut against the Texans last week. Unless we know Tannehill isn’t playing and the line doesn’t move, I probably won’t bet on this game at such a high number, but the Chiefs should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Tennessee Titans 15

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -12.5

Confidence: Low