Packers

2014 NFL Most Valuable Player Award Pick: Aaron Rodgers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Packers, Uncategorized

The consensus 3 candidates for MVP seem to be Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and JJ Watt. I’ll explain why I feel Rodgers has the edge on both of them. I’ll start with the two quarterbacks, Rodgers and Romo. Comparing the two, Romo had generally more efficient numbers. He completed 69.9% of his passes, as opposed to 65.6% for Rodgers, and averaged 8.52 yards per attempt, as opposed to 8.43 yards per attempt for Rodgers. Rodgers’ 38 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio was better than Romo’s at 34 to 9, but Romo still was #1 in the NFL in quarterback rating at 113.2, while Rodgers was slightly behind at 112.2 at #2.

However, Rodgers led the better offense, as they moved the chains at a 79.38% rate, best in the NFL. The Cowboys were very good offensively, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate that was 4th in the NFL, but the Packers were as good as it got offensively this regular season. Rodgers was a bigger part of his offense than Romo, with 520 attempts to 435 for Romo. Add in Rodgers’ superior rushing numbers (269 yards and 2 touchdowns on 43 carries, as opposed to 61 yards on 26 carries for Romo) and Rodgers actually had 103 more dropbacks than Romo.

Romo played on a team that ran 476 times (excluding quarterback runs), while the Packers ran 382 times. He also played with the strongest supporting cast. DeMarco Murray led a running game that not only carried the ball more times, but also averaged more yards per carry (4.6 to 4.4). Rodgers had a pair of great receivers in Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson and the best guard combo in the NFL in TJ Lang and Josh Sitton and Eddie Lacy is no slouch at running back, but Romo had arguably the best running game and offensive line in the game and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are no slouches in the passing game.

The Cowboys ranked 4th in pass blocking grade, 2nd in run blocking grade, and 2nd in rushing grade on Pro Football Focus, while the Packers ranked 1st, 17th, and 7th in those 7 aspects respectively. Rodgers also had 32 dropped passes to Romo’s 10 and ranked #1 in adjusted QB rating (which takes into accounts yards after the catch, drops, throw aways, etc) by a decent margin over Romo (99.04 to 97.70). Rodgers was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback on the season, while Romo ranked all the way down at #7, as they felt his numbers were really boosted by the play around him. At the end of the day, Rodgers led the better offense despite less supporting talent.

It definitely needs to be mentioned that Tony Romo missed one start with a back injury, a 28-13 home loss to the Cardinals in which the offense really struggled, moving the chains at a 67.86% rate. That’s part of why Rodgers had so many more drop backs and if you take out that game, the Cowboys moved the chains at a 77.85% rate on the season. However, that’s still worse than Green Bay and that rate of moving the chains looks a little better when you take into account that they were facing a very tough Arizona defense, which allowed opponents to move the chains at a mere 69.83% rate on the season, 3rd best in the NFL. Besides, the Packers felt Rodgers’ absence on a greater scale last season, as they went 2-6 in 8 games that Rodgers either missed or barely played in. Compare that to an 18-6 record with Rodgers at quarterback over the past 2 seasons. I know you can’t use things that happened in previous years to pick MVP, but it does provide some helpful context.

Now that Rodgers has been narrowed down as the top quarterback in the NFL, the argument is between him and the top non-quarterback in the NFL, who is almost definitely JJ Watt. Watt was Pro Football Focus’ top player this season by a wide margin, as has been the case in each of the last 3 seasons. I’ll get into what makes him so good in my Defensive Player of the Year write-up, but Watt is the only one in recent memory that I think can say he’s been the best player in football for 3 straight years. This is Reggie White in his prime type stuff and maybe even he couldn’t say that.

However, this award isn’t best player, it’s most valuable and it’s just so hard for a non-quarterback to be the most valuable player in today’s NFL. I would be fine with the NFL making a separate award for non-quarterbacks and if that existed Watt would be the heavy favorite. However, imagine if Watt and Rodgers switched places. Rodgers might not have quite the same amount of offensive supporting talent in Houston and the defense would suck without Watt, but Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Arian Foster, and that Houston offensive line are a good bunch so that would still be one of the best offenses in the NFL. Defensively they could easily struggle, but so did the Packers’ defense this year, ranking 27th in rate of moving the chains allowed and they still won 12 games because of how good their offense was. The Texans are a playoff team if they swapped Watt for Rodgers.

If the Packers swapped Rodgers for Watt, their defense would be a lot better, but their offense would be so much worse. Even if they still made the playoffs, there’s no way they’d be 12-win NFC North champions. That’s simply what it boils down to. If you switched Watt and Rodgers, the Texans would become a better football team and the Packers would become a worse football team. Rodgers deserves this award more than anyone else.

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-4)

The Packers failed to cover in their previous home game, a 43-37 home victory over the Falcons, but that’s the only time they’ve failed to cover at home this season, en route to a thus far perfect 7-0 mark at home. On the season, they move the chains at an 81.55% rate at home, as opposed to 73.04% for their opponents, a differential of 8.50%. Conversely, the Lions have been terrible on the road, moving the chains at a 68.97% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -4.22% away from the Motor City.

The Packers’ home dominance is nothing new as Aaron Rodgers is 26-10-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 33-4 straight up, with an absurd +554 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.97 points per game. The Packers lost earlier this year in Detroit, but the Lions are going to have a much tougher time here in Green Bay as they seek to hand the Packers their first home loss of the season, sweep the season series, and clinch the division and a first round bye.

These two teams may have identical records, but the Packers have been significantly better than the Lions this season. They rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league best 79.54% rate, as opposed to 74.63% for their opponents, a differential of 4.91%. Meanwhile, the Lions rank 13th, moving the chains at a 71.08% rate, as opposed to 70.25% for their opponents, a differential of 0.83%. That’s largely because the Packers have a +128 point differential on the season, as opposed to +49 for the Lions, who have needed some lucky comebacks in close games to get to where they are. The odds makers know about the Packers’ home dominance and about how uneven these two teams are in talent level, which is why this line is 7.5, but I still don’t think it’s high enough. The Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 30 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)

The Packers haven’t been nearly the same team on the road this season. That was evident last week in a loss in Buffalo and it’s been evident all year as they’ve beaten just one team by more than 4 points on the road all season, relevant considering this line is all the way up at 10.5 On the season, they move the chains at a 77.57% rate, as opposed to 78.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.35%. However, there are reasons to like them here as big road favorites. For one, Tampa Bay isn’t great at home, going 14-31 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. That makes taking the Packers as massive road favorites less scary, especially with Gerald McCoy out for the Buccaneers.

Two, the Packers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 137-110 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 1989, including 101-86 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good off of a loss in his career, going 20-10 ATS in that spot.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot with the Saints coming to town next week. The early line has them projected as 4.5 point home underdogs in that one. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs. On top of that, non-divisional home underdogs are 15-32 ATS before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. It’s hard to be confident in the Packers on the road, even against a bad team with minimal homefield advantage, but I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way this week and they should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

This line started out at 6 at the beginning of the week, but now is done to everything from 4-5.5 depending on where you get it. That’s despite the public being all over Green Bay, which suggests that the sharps are on Buffalo this week. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it certainly does this week, but I do still wish the line was at 6. The Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as at home, with just one road win by more than 4 points, and they’re facing a reasonable opponent here who could easily play them close, but I’d need at least 6 points to be confident going against Rodgers this week.

Rodgers has been very good no matter where he’s been this season. The Packers offense has moved the chains at an 81.55% rate at home this season and an 80.00% rate on the road. The difference is their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate on the road this season, as opposed to 73.04% at home. The Bills don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate this season, but if the Packers defense plays like it has on the road this season, they shouldn’t have a ton of trouble moving the ball.

Meanwhile, the Bills, more than maybe any other team in the league, have the personnel to slow down the Packers’ offense. Their league best defense in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed at 68.00% allowed the Broncos’ explosive offense to move the chains at a 72.00% rate in Denver last week. If they can slow down the Packers offense and move the ball on a weak Green Bay defense, then I’m happy taking the Bills getting anything more than 4 points here in Buffalo, but I’d need at least 6 to be reasonably confident in the Bills.

The Packers are in a good spot with a trip to Tampa Bay on deck, where the early line has them as 10.5 point favorites. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002). However, Buffalo has an easy game up next with a trip to Oakland on deck, where the early line has them as 4.5 point favorites. The Bills should be the right side, but again I’m not that confident.

Green Bay Packers 23 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)

The Packers have been outstanding at home this season, moving the chains at an 80.51% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 9.89%. This home dominance is nothing new for them. Aaron Rodgers is 26-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 32-4 straight up, with an absurd +548 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.22 points per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 69.89% rate, as opposed to 75.12% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -5.23%.

However, this line largely takes all both of those things into account as it’s very high at 12.5. I still have a decent amount of confidence in the Packers to come away with a blowout victory here though. I wish the line was closer to 10, but we’re still getting value with the Packers here. On top of the Packers’ home dominance and the Falcons’ road struggles, the Packers are also in a great spot as they don’t have any upcoming distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-8 ATS before being 7+ point favorites (the early line is Green Bay -6.5). The Packers should be the right side here.

Green Bay Packers 38 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Packers, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The Patriots have been the better of these two teams this season, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 7th. They’ve moved the chains at a 77.75% rate, as opposed to 72.42% for their opponents, a differential of 5.33%, while the Packers have moved them at an 80.17% rate, as opposed to 75.89% for their opponents, a differential of 4.28%. The Patriots have especially been good over the past 7 weeks, moving the chains at an 82.40% rate, as opposed to 72.65% for their opponents, a differential of 9.75%. Their offense has gotten significantly better with the offensive line settling in and Rob Gronkowski returning to form, while their defense hasn’t really missed much of a beat without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo.

Despite that, the Patriots are underdogs here by a field goal. The Patriots generally thrive in situations like that. Tom Brady is 46-18 ATS in his career as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points. However, the usual conditions that accompany the Patriots being in this situation are not in play. They aren’t coming off a loss. They’re not playing a team with a better record than them. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been that good recently, going 5-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Even in situations where they are underdogs or small favorites on the road, they are 4-4 ATS on the road in that time period.

While the Patriots have had struggles on the road, the Packers have been dominant at home this season, so dominant in fact that this line of a field goal seems warranted, as good as the Patriots have been this season and especially since week 5. The Packers move the chains at an 80.37% rate at home, as opposed to 68.67% for their opponents, a differential of 11.69%. This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 25-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 31-4 straight up, with an absurd +543 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.51 points per game.

Both of these teams are in good spots in terms of not having any significant distractions on the horizon. This is the toughest game of the season for either of these teams and a potential Super Bowl matchup. The Packers host Atlanta next week, while New England goes to San Diego. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, as the Packers will be, while teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, including 55-33 ATS road favorites of 4 or more. The Patriots will be significant road favorites next week. This is really tough to pick, but I’m going with the Packers to fade the public underdog Patriots.

Green Bay Packers 27 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

The Packers have scored 108 points over the past two weeks, outscoring Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined total of 108-34 in back-to-back home games. However, now they have to go on the road, which has been a much bigger challenge for them. This season, they are 5-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road with double digit losses in Seattle, Detroit, and New Orleans. Their relative road struggles are nothing new. Since 2009, the Packers are 39-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.24 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-22 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.46 points per game, a difference of about 9 points per game.

The Packers have no business being double digit road favorites here, as well as they’ve played in the last two weeks. They only rank 7th in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 79.74% rate, as opposed to 75.89% for their opponents, a differential of 3.85%. As good as they’ve looked, they’ve been overly reliant on a +14 turnover margin, which is hard to rely on week-to-week. It might seem weird that they’d be just 7th, even with the turnover margin thing taken into account, considering how dominant they were over the past two weeks, but you have to remember that they had some struggles to start the season, especially on the road.

On the road, they move the chains at a 79.05% rate, as opposed to 82.94% for their opponents, a differential of -3.89% that’s nowhere near as good as they’ve been at home. They could easily struggle this week, away from Lambeau. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.93% rate on the season, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.77% that ranks 28th in the league. This line is way too high at 10. There was a significant line movement from 7 to 10 from last week to this week because of how dominant Green Bay was last week and I love fading significant line movements because they’re often unwarranted. The Packers still haven’t proven anything on the public, but the odds makers know they can jack up the line because it’s Green Bay and the public will still be all over it, which they are. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does this week.

Green Bay Packers 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +10

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Eagles, Packers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Both of these two teams had blowout victories on national television last week, as the Eagles blew out the Panthers on Monday Night Football by the final score of 45-21 and the Packers blew out the Bears on Sunday Night Football by the final score of 55-14. Which team has the best chance of continuing that into this week? Well, I think both teams have a good chance of continuing to play well this week. On Philadelphia’s side, teams tend to carry the momentum from a Monday Night Football win into the following week, going 33-14 ATS off of a MNF win by 21 or more since 2002. On Green Bay’s side, the Packers are once again at home, where they’ve been dominant recently. Aaron Rodgers is 24-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 30-4 straight up, with an absurd +510 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.00 points per game.

Both teams have no upcoming distractions as the Packers head to Minnesota and the Eagles host the Titans. Teams are 56-28 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). On the flip side, teams are 109-74 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs, before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 98-79 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites.

I’m going to take the Packers because we’re just getting so much line value with the Packers at home. The Packers move the chains at a 79.07% rate at home, as opposed to 68.70% for their opponents, a differential of 10.37%. The Eagles are in a great spot, but they rank just 9th, moving the chains at a 72.12% rate, as opposed to 69.00% for their opponents, on the season, a differential of 3.12% and the Packers are in a great spot too. As good as the final score looked against Carolina last week, the win was powered by an unsustainable turnover margin (+5) and two return touchdown. They moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 64.86% for the Panthers, a differential of 5.14%. I still think Mark Sanchez is a downgrade from Nick Foles. I’m not confident in the Packers though.

Green Bay Packers 30 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -5.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of 1.11%. The Packers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 78.69% rate, as opposed to 77.99% for their opponents, a differential of 0.70% that ranks 15th in the NFL. They’ve been overly reliant on a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +8 turnover margin. However, the Packers have been significantly better at home, moving the chains at a 78.13% rate, as opposed to 69.39% for their opponents in 3 home games this season, a differential of 8.74%.

This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 23-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 29-4 straight up, with an absurd +469 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is 19-10 ATS off of a loss in his career and 11-2 ATS in his career against the Bears, while Mike McCarthy is 8-0 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career. The Bears have an easy game against the Vikings up next and divisional road underdogs are 59-41 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. I also wish this line was smaller. It’s currently at 7.5 and it would have to be below a touchdown for me to make this a higher confidence pick, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Packers, Saints, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home over their last 19 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 19.5 points per game, with just four being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. The Saints are also 12-3 ATS in home night games since 2006. Meanwhile, the Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home recently. Since 2009, the Packers are 37-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.19 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game.

The Packers represent a much tougher than average opponent, but this line is still too low at 1. The Packers rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, which is impressive, but not as good as their record as they’ve been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin and a fumble recovery rate of 56.25%. They are moving the chains at a 78.77% rate, as opposed to 76.52% for their opponents, a differential of 2.25%. The Saints, meanwhile, move the chains at an 80.36% rate, as opposed to 78.07% for their opponents, a differential of 2.28% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The reason they are 2-4, while the Packers are 5-2 is because they’re getting killed in the turnover battle (-8 in turnovers, -2 in return touchdowns, 18.18% fumble recovery) and because they have 3 losses by a combined 6 points.

They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential despite the fact that they’ve played 4 of 6 on the road which represent all their losses. In two home games, they’ve move the chains at an 85.00% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 13.00%. New Orleans is also getting Jimmy Graham to full strength back after he essentially missed 2 games (he went out early against Tampa Bay and barely played against Detroit).

Despite their records, these two teams are more comparable than you’d think and the Saints might actually be better. This line should be at least 3, even before you get into the Saints’ home dominance. On top of all that, Drew Brees is 20-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 15-2 ATS at home. The Packers are also public underdogs, in case you need another reason to take the Saints. I usually like to fade the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always come out on top, but I especially like fading the public when they’re on an underdog. If the Packers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the odds makers have them as favorites? I could easily see the Saints winning by at least a touchdown.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Saints have Carolina 4 days after this one on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 34-56 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night football. Teams are also 86-105 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs on any day of the week since 2002. However, the Saints are barely favored here and they should be able to be completely focused on this one even with that game on the horizon because they’re coming off a loss, facing a 5-2 opponent, and will feel like they need this game to save their season. I really like the Saints this week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1

Confidence: High

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