Texans

Houston Texans 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Safety

Kendrick Lewis and Danieal Manning both played well last season, grading out above average on 1097 snaps and 591 snaps respectively. However, both are free agents this off-season. The Texans still have DJ Swearinger, but he plays around the line of scrimmage instead of a linebacker in sub packages and he struggled last season anyway, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 78th ranked safety out of 87 eligible. Even if they keep the 2013 2nd round pick as a starter, even though he’s struggled in that role in both of his two seasons in the NFL, they need significant help at this position.

Cornerback

Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph were a solid pair of cornerbacks last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus 11th ranked cornerback and 23rd ranked cornerback respectively. However, Jackson is a free agent this off-season, as the 2010 1st round pick’s 5-year rookie deal expired, while Johnathan Joseph could be a cap casualty this off-season. He’s owed a non-guaranteed 8.5 million in 2015 and the Texans could save that entire amount on the cap if they let him go. The Texans are somewhat backed up against the cap so it might be tough for them to bring back both in 2015. AJ Bouye, their #3 cornerback, did not appear ready for a starting job in 2014. The 2013 undrafted free agent struggled in the first significant action of his career.

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick graded out below average in every season from 2008-2012, with Buffalo and Cincinnati, but he’s graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. In 2013 with the Titans, he was Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked quarterback and last season he was 12th, completing 63.1% of his passes for an average of 7.96 YPA, and a 17:8 TD:INT ratio, all career bests in Bill O’Brien’s system. In the 11 games he started and finished, the Texans moved the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 66.06% in their other 5 games, when Fitzpatrick was out with a broken leg. Fitzpatrick is signed cheaply for 2015 at 3.25 million and should return as the starter, but the issue is long-term. Fitzpatrick is going into his age 33 season, off of a serious injury, and it’s a contract year. Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage, and Case Keenum all graded out below average in his absence last season. Mallett was brought in last off-season to compete for the starting job, but he only made 2 starts, one of which he played with a torn pectoral. It’s still unclear if he can be a starter in the NFL and now he’s a free agent. Tom Savage was brought in as a potential long-term solution with a 4th round pick last year, but he struggled as a rookie and he was only a 4th round pick, which historically suggests he’ll struggle to make an impact at the quarterback positon. Keenum, meanwhile, was only signed late in the season out of necessity and is a free agent again now. They’ll need to add someone else to the mix with Fitzpatrick and Savage if Mallett can’t be retained.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins had a breakout year in 2014 in his 2nd year in the league, catching 76 passes for 1210 yards and 6 touchdowns, but Andre Johnson went under 1000+ yards for the first time in a 15+ game season since his rookie year in 2003. That’s concerning to see, as he’s going into his age 34 season in 2015. Johnson is currently #12 on the NFL’s all-time receiving yardage list, but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. They need a long-term solution opposite Hopkins because their depth was terrible at the position last season. Hopkins and Johnson were the Texans’ only two receivers who graded out above average, while #3 receiver Damaris Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 107th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible last season.

Defensive End

Everyone knows what JJ Watt did last season (and what he’s done for the last 3), but Jared Crick is a solid starter opposite him, making 15 starts and grading out about average. However, their depth at the position is terrible. All the rest of the Texans’ 3-4 defensive ends graded out below average last season, while their top reserve at the position, Tim Jamison, graded out 44th out of 47 eligible at the position. Depth needs to be added this off-season, especially with Crick going into a contract year.

Offensive Tackle

Duane Brown remains one of the better blindside protectors in the NFL at left tackle, while Derek Newton had a breakout year this off-season. However, Newton will become a free agent this off-season. If they can’t re-sign Newton, they’ll need to find a replacement, as their depth at the position is less than stellar.

Defensive Tackle

Jerrell Powe was horrible at nose tackle last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked defensive tackle last season, despite playing just 252 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worst at his position. The Texans still like Louis Nix, their 3rd round pick from 2014, but he didn’t play at all as a rookie because of injuries and he had injury problems in his final season at Notre Dame as well, so he’s no sure thing going forward. They could add more here this off-season.

Center

Chris Myers has done a great job in recent years for the Texans at center, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season since they began in 2007, but last season was the worst recorded season of his career, as he was only Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked center. That’s concerning because he’s going into his age 34 season contract year and might not even be back next season. The Texans can save 6 million in cash and cap space this off-season by cutting him and that just might be too much money for a cap strapped team to have devoted to an aging, declining center. Even if he’s back, they need a long-term solution at the position.

Key Free Agents

CB Kareem Jackson

Kareem Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback in 2014 and he’s not a one year wonder, because he graded out 12th among cornerbacks in 2012 as well. However, he’s graded out below average in his other 3 seasons in the NFL, including each of his first two seasons after the Texans drafted him in the first round in 2010. There’s two ways to look at this. One is to see him as an inconsistent player. The other is to see him as someone who got off to a slow start in his career, but has generally been good since then. He’ll get a good money of money on the open market, but he’s a risky signing.

OT Derek Newton

Derek Newton, a 7th round pick in 2011, has been a starter on the right side for the Texans for 3 seasons, making 46 starts. Newton was horrible in 2012 and 2013, grading out 64th out of 80 eligible offensive tackles in 2012 and 72nd out of 76 eligible offensive tackles in 2013, but he turned in the best season of his career in 2014, just in time for his contract year, as he graded out 19th. He could get a decent amount of money on the open market, as an experienced starter coming off of the best year of his career. However, he’s still only a one year wonder and, even during his good year, he graded out below average as a pass protector, getting by on strong run blocking. He could get overpaid.

OLB Brooks Reed

Brooks Reed, a 2011 2nd round pick, has graded out above average in 3 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, making 54 starts in the process. The only exception was 2013, when he graded out 41st out of 42 eligible players. However, Reed has graded out negatively as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons, doing his best work against the run and, to a lesser extent, in coverage. Because of that, there has been talk that he’d be better off as a 4-3 outside linebacker or moving to middle linebacker in a 3-4. He’s a decent player and he has some versatility, but he won’t break the bank for anyone.

S Kendrick Lewis

Lewis was a mere 5th round pick in 2010, but he still started for 4 years with the Chiefs before coming to Houston, making 51 starts from 2010-2013. Lewis graded out above average in his first 2 seasons in the league, but below average in 2012 and 2013, the final 2 years of his rookie contract in Kansas City, which led to a depressed market for him last off-season, forcing him to settle for a cheap, one-year deal in Houston. With the Texans, he had a bounce back year, grading out above average. Now he hits free agency again with 67 career starts in 5 seasons with a solid history of success as a starter, including a solid contract year. He should get more money and years than he did last off-season, but he could still be a cheap starting option for a team that needs one.

QB Ryan Mallett

Ryan Mallett was a 3rd round pick by the Patriots in 2011, but he attempted just 4 passes in 3 seasons with New England (completing just 1) and not showing much in the pre-season. Texans’ Head Coach Bill O’Brien was on New England’s offensive staff when they drafted Mallett and brought him to Houston with him last off-season for the price of a late round pick. Mallett was briefly given the starting job over Ryan Fitzpatrick mid-season, but lasted just 2 games before going down for the season with a torn pectoral. He actually played one of his starts with that torn pectoral and, as you can imagine, it was a trainwreck, as he completed 21 of 45 for 189 yards and an interception. He was better in his other start, completing 20 of 30 for 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception, but he heads into free agency still completely unproven. He’ll get a decent amount of money on the open market because there are still people in the league who like his potential and he could make a few starts next off-season, but he’s going to have to work for whatever playing time he gets in 2015.

S Danieal Manning

Daniael Manning looked done last off-season, as an aging safety who graded out below average in both 2012 and 2013 and was limited to 6 games in 2013 by injuries. However, Manning bounced back in 2014 with his former team, the Texans, grading out above average on 591 snaps as a 3rd safety who came into the game in sub packages, when Swearinger would move to the line of scrimmage in place of a 2nd linebacker. That being said, Manning is going into his age 33 season, so he won’t have a hot market this off-season, but, if he wants to keep playing, he should get a chance to.

Cap Casualty Candidates

OT Tyson Clabo

Clabo was once a solid starter on the right side in Atlanta, but he struggled in 2013 in Miami and played just 101 snaps as a reserve in 2014 with the Texans. The Texans don’t need to be paying him a non-guaranteed 1.22 million to play a reserve role, especially since he’s declining and going into his age 34 season.

CB Johnathan Joseph

The Texans signed Johnathan Joseph to a 5-year, 48.75 million dollar deal four off-seasons ago and it’s largely been a good deal for them as Joseph has missed just 4 games in 4 seasons and graded out above average in all 4 years. Joseph’s best season came in the first season of his deal in 2011, when he graded out 11th at his position, but he’s played at about a level lower in the other 3 seasons, grading out 44th, 25th, and 23rd. Joseph is now going into his age 31 season owed a non-guaranteed 8.5 million, all of which the Texans can save on the cap by releasing him ahead of his contract year. While Joseph still has a lot to contribute to a team, the Texans might not find him worth it. As I said earlier, it’s going to be tough for the Texans to be able to bring back both Joseph and free agent Kareem Jackson.

WR Andre Johnson

This one is really a long shot, but Johnson is going into his age 34 season coming off the worst statistical season of his career in terms of yards per game since his rookie year. Johnson is currently #12 on the NFL’s all-time receiving yardage list, but even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson is a declining player who could soon become a rapidly declining player and he’s owed a non-guaranteed 8.5 million in 2015, an amount the Texans can save on the cap entirely by letting him go this off-season. They reportedly want him to take a pay cut and, if he doesn’t agree to one, they could pull the trigger on his release.

C Chris Myers

Like Johnson, Myers is an accomplished player, but an aging, declining, and expensive one as well. He’s also going into his age 34 season and, though he’s graded out above average in every season since Pro Football Focus started in 2007, he had his worst recorded season in 2014, grading out 16th among centers. He also especially struggled in pass protection, getting by largely on strong run blocking. The Texans owe him 6 million non-guaranteed in his contract year in 2015 and can save that amount on the cap by letting him go.

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2014 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pick: JJ Watt

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Awards, Texans, Uncategorized

In my Most Valuable Player article, I laid out why JJ Watt should not win MVP over Aaron Rodgers, as the Packers would undoubtedly be a worse team if they switched Rodgers for Watt and the Texans would undoubtedly be better if they switched Watt for Rodgers.  However, Watt not winning Defensive Player of the Year would be an equally big travesty as Watt winning MVP. It’s hard for a single defensive player to fit the definition of valuable as well as a quarterback, but Watt has still been the best player in football in each of the past 3 seasons.

He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top rated player in each of the last 3 seasons. Those ratings aren’t necessarily meant to be compared across positions, but Watt has been so much better than everyone else that it’s a fairly safe assessment to make. With Watt over the past 3 seasons, we’ve witnessed a stretch of dominance by a player that hasn’t been seen since Reggie White’s prime at best. This season was arguably the best of the bunch for Watt, and his rating on Pro Football Focus reflected that, though the ratings are not meant to be compared across seasons either, which is why I said arguably.

Justin Houston gets some mention for this award and he actually led the NFL with 23 sacks, while Watt “only” had 21. Houston was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, but he didn’t dominate the position anywhere near as much as Watt dominated the 3-4 defensive end position. Houston’s sack total is very impressive, but Watt’s 21 are even more impressive considering he plays a position where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback. Also, while Houston had just 8 quarterback hits, Watt had 44. No one else had more than 21 in the NFL at any position.

Watt added 54 quarterback hurries, which is actually less than Houston’s 56, and in terms of overall pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 hurries divided by pass rush snaps), Houston was actually the better of the two at 15.7 as compared to 15.0, but, again, Watt plays a much tougher position to get to the quarterback from. No 3-4 defensive end other than Watt was better than 9.7 in pass rush productivity.

At 3-4 outside linebacker, Houston wasn’t even the best at his position as Brandon Graham led the way among eligible players, posting a 17.7 on more limited snaps. Twenty 3-4 outside linebackers were more productive pass rushers than the 2nd best 3-4 defensive end. Watt also had a league leading 10 pass deflections, which pass rush productivity doesn’t even take into account. Houston only had 5 and the 2nd best player in that aspect (Clay Matthews) only had 6.

Also, while Watt’s rating on Pro Football Focus was more than 2.5 times better than the 2nd best 3-4 defensive end (Sheldon Richardson, who had a great season in his own right), Houston didn’t even double the next best 3-4 outside linebacker. Watt’s position is also more important to run defense than Houston. Watt wasn’t nearly as good at his position against the run as he was as a pass rusher, but he still ranked 4th in that aspect this season.

The Texans’ defense finished 10th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 70.62%, despite not having a single player other than Watt finish in the top-10 at his position. Only Kareem Jackson finished in the top-15 at his position on the Texans’ defense other than Watt. Kansas City’s defense was a little better, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.29% rate, 7th in the NFL, but Houston had Tamba Hali opposite him (13th among 3-4 outside linebackers) and Sean Smith at cornerback (5th among cornerbacks. Both players had a fantastic season, but this is Watt’s award.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Houston Texans (8-7)

This game involves a significant line movement as the Texans were 7.5 point favorites according to the early line last week, while they are now 10 point favorites. I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as significant line movements are usually overreactions. It makes sense here. The Texans rank just 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 69.57% rate, as opposed to 71.37% for their opponents, a differential of -1.80. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 29th, moving the chains at a 65.35% rate, as opposed to 72.61% for their opponents, a differential of -7.26%.

This line is too high because you even take into account that the Texans are essentially down to 4th string quarterback Case Keenum, with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, and Tom Savage all out for the season. Keenum was able to lead this team to victory last week, but that was mostly because they got an uncharacteristically good performance from their defense, which held a previously efficient offense to a 56.67% rate of moving the chains. They can’t count on that again this week.

Keenum completed just 20 of 42 for 185 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception last week and the offense moved the chains at a 55.88% rate. Not only does that suggest that the Texans’ victory last week wasn’t as impressive as the final score suggested, which would make that line movement a huge overreaction, but it suggests that the Texans offense could really struggle to cover this spread this week. Keenum could be better in his 2nd start, as he’ll have more time with the offense in practice this week. Last week’s start was just a week after being called off of St. Louis’ practice squad and he only had a week of practice with the offense since September, after he was a final cut of the Texans after the pre-season. However, he shouldn’t be favored by 10 points over anyone. I have a good amount of confidence in the Jaguars as long as this line is 10 or more.

Houston Texans 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +10

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Houston Texans (7-7)

This line was Houston -1 last week and now it’s Baltimore -6 in Houston. That’s a massive line movement, as it’s moved a full touchdown to compensate for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury. That’s a massive overreaction. Fitzpatrick is decent, but the Texans’ offense ranks just 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains. Meanwhile, both Case Keenum and Thad Lewis, the two candidates to start in this game, showed some decent flashes last season in brief periods as the starter. They’re downgrades from Fitzpatrick, but they’re not Ryan Lindley.

The Texans still have a solid defense (16th in rate of moving the chains allowed) and do not deserve to be 6 point home underdogs here. If Tom Brady got hurt this week, it don’t think that line would move more than a touchdown (that would put the Patriots at -3 at the Jets). The same thing is true with Aaron Rodgers (that would put Green Bay at -3.5 at Tampa Bay). When Rodgers got hurt last year, the line moved 6 points to compensate the following week. The reason this line moved 7 points instead of something more reasonable like 4 is because the odds makers know the public will still bet this spread no matter how high they put it, as they are doing so here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and this feels like a trap line for the public.

The Ravens rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving them at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 72.10% for their opponents, a differential of 5.35%. Meanwhile, the Texans come in 23rd, moving them at a 70.66% rate, as opposed to 72.33% for their opponents, a differential of -1.67%. That suggests this line should be about 4 in favor of Baltimore, which suggests that a line of 6 once you’ve taken injuries into account is reasonable, but Baltimore hasn’t been nearly as good on the road this season. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 76.23% rate, as opposed to 75.56% for their opponents, a differential of 0.68% that is 10 percentage points lower than 10.48% differential they have at home this season.

These relative road struggles are nothing new for the Ravens. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 46-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. Both of these two teams are in a good spot with easy games on deck, Houston with a home game against Jacksonville and Baltimore with a home game against Cleveland, but Houston is in the better spot here as significant home underdogs. Underdogs of 6 or more are 68-57 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 6 or more, while home underdogs of 3 or more are 65-45 ATS since 1989 before being home favorites of 3 or more. The Texans should be the right side here.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

The Colts have been very good at home in the Andrew Luck era, going 16-7 ATS at home since 2002. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, as they rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 76.26% rate, as opposed to 71.26% for their opponents, a differential of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 20th, moving the chains at a 71.93% rate, as opposed to 72.60% for their opponents, a differential of -0.67%.

However, the Texans might be the better spot. Teams are 99-114 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. However, the Colts are only projected to be 1 point underdogs in Dallas next week and the Texans are only projected to be 1 point favorites over Baltimore, so that trend might not necessarily be in play. I’m going with the Colts, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where they are projected to be 7 point underdogs. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+.

I’m taking the Jaguars because this line is too high and the public is all over Houston. This line has shifted from 3.5 to 6 from last week to this week. I love fading a huge line movement whenever it makes sense and I think it does here because this line should be right around where it was last week, according to rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans rank just 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 71.62% rate, as opposed to 73.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.71% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -7.15%. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m not confident in Jacksonville though.

Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6)

The Titans are in their 2nd of two road games which is typically a good spot for teams. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

However, I’m going to go the other way this week for two reasons. For one, the Texans are also in a good spot this week. Divisional home favorites are 115-84 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites and the Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck. The early line for that game is 3.5. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Texans have no distractions on the horizon and should be completely focused to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

Speaking of the Titans being an inferior opponent, this line isn’t nearly high enough. The Texans aren’t a great team, but they are significantly better than the Titans, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.36% rate, as opposed to 73.24% for their opponents, a differential of -2.88%. The Titans, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 31st, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -8.55%. We’re not getting any line value whatsoever with the Titans so I can’t take them this week. I’m not confident in Houston, but they should be the right side.

Houston Texans 23 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -6.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Texans, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5)

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I especially love fading the public when they’re on an underdog. They very rarely are, but if they are, chances are it’s because they’re falling into a trap by the odds makers. If the odds makers pick one team to be favored, but the public thinks another should be favored, chances are it’s not going to end well for the public.

The Bengals are a public underdog here and I can understand why. After all, Houston is just 5-5 while the Bengals are 6-3-1. However, the Texans are favored for a reason and it’s because they’re actually a better team than the Bengals, especially the Bengals on the road. The Texans rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.92% rate, as opposed to 72.92% for their opponents, a differential of -2.00. The Bengals, despite their record, rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 75.07% for their opponents, a differential of -3.64%. That gets even worse on the road, as they move the chains at a 65.71% rate on the road, as opposed to 78.00% for their opponents, a differential of -12.29%. Since the start of last season, they are 4-7-1 ATS on the road.

I’m hesitant to take the Texans because the Bengals are in their 2nd straight road game and historically teams do better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. However, the Bengals are coming off of a big upset win in New Orleans last week as touchdown underdogs and teams are 39-47 ATS since 1989 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs of 7 or more. They could be overconfident here after that, which would nullify any advantage they get from being in their 2nd straight road game. As long as this line is less than a field goal, I like the Texans here.

Houston Texans 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Browns, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)

This is a tough one because I don’t really have any significant trends for either side. The Browns are the better team and we’re probably getting some line value with them as mere 3.5 point favorites, especially with Arian Foster out. The Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.53% rate, as opposed to 69.36% for their opponents, a differential of 1.17%, while the Texans rank 24th, moving the chains at a 70.19% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents, a differential of -3.14%.

However, I’m worried about taking the Browns after they’ve had 10 days to listen to the media blow smoke in their ass after their win over Cincinnati. While they’re better than the Texans, they’re still not as good as their record so that could be very dangerous for them. The public is also on the Browns and hate taking a publicly backed side unless I have good reason as the odds makers always make money in the long run. The fact that this line is 3.5 instead of 3 also scares me as this could easily be a field goal game. I’m still taking the Browns, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Texans, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)

This line had a significant movement from last week, moving two points from an even line to 2 points in favor of Philadelphia. It’s not a huge deal considering it’s still less than a field goal, but it still doesn’t make any sense that it would move like that considering, Philadelphia lost last week in Arizona and Houston blew out the Titans. In spite of that, the public is all over from the Eagles, assuming that a team as good as the Eagles should have no problem beating Houston by a field goal, not realizing that Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record and that this line would be about 7.5 in Philadelphia. For comparison, Philadelphia was 6.5 against the Rams and didn’t even cover, despite getting a return touchdown.

The Eagles have been overly reliant on return touchdowns this season, scoring 6 times on defense and special teams, as opposed to 0 for their opponents. They can’t continually rely on that as a way to score. Their offense hasn’t played well, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate. Their defense has been solid, allowing opponents, to move the chains at a 70.04% rate, a differential of 0.79% that ranks 15th in the NFL. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 70.71% rate, as opposed to 72.09% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. The Eagles shouldn’t be favored here, even with Jason Kelce returning from injury. I’m not confident or anything, but the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Philadelphia Eagles 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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