Uncategorized

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 309 47 29 45 10 4 3 79.64%
2 NO 354 44 22 51 23 6 0 79.60%
3 PIT 342 39 28 56 16 6 0 78.23%
4 NE 328 45 33 57 12 4 0 77.87%
5 BAL 308 39 32 46 17 6 0 77.46%
6 DEN 313 48 24 60 16 6 0 77.30%
7 DAL 297 43 25 52 23 3 1 76.58%
8 IND 338 47 28 59 28 7 1 75.79%
9 SEA 289 34 32 54 12 7 1 75.29%
10 ATL 296 37 28 57 20 6 1 74.83%
11 CHI 293 36 12 61 28 12 0 74.43%
12 MIA 302 31 34 51 20 11 0 74.16%
13 KC 272 35 21 65 16 6 0 73.98%
14 SD 278 32 24 66 17 4 0 73.63%
15 CAR 303 29 31 65 21 3 0 73.45%
16 NYG 295 37 18 71 27 11 0 72.33%
17 CIN 274 34 28 65 21 5 0 72.13%
18 PHI 303 37 31 67 34 4 0 71.43%
19 HOU 271 30 29 69 19 7 1 70.66%
20 DET 265 28 35 63 16 8 0 70.60%
21 SF 264 24 28 65 20 7 0 70.59%
22 ARZ 259 25 30 78 11 1 0 70.30%
23 WAS 277 28 24 70 25 10 0 70.28%
24 STL 250 28 26 72 21 5 0 69.15%
25 MIN 253 24 31 69 18 5 1 69.08%
26 CLE 270 27 28 81 20 9 0 68.28%
27 NYJ 255 22 31 72 22 6 1 67.73%
28 TB 239 26 21 66 31 8 1 67.60%
29 TEN 230 24 19 76 25 8 2 66.15%
30 BUF 242 25 36 73 20 8 2 65.76%
31 JAX 241 20 25 80 26 11 0 64.76%
32 OAK 220 23 17 94 27 5 0 62.95%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 270 24 29 76 30 4 1 67.74%
2 ARZ 260 24 27 70 25 8 0 68.60%
3 KC 270 23 34 71 11 11 0 69.76%
4 IND 275 34 17 80 22 13 0 70.07%
5 STL 266 25 23 69 24 8 0 70.12%
6 CLE 299 31 31 74 27 7 1 70.21%
7 SEA 245 25 20 68 20 5 1 70.31%
8 DET 269 26 22 73 22 6 1 70.41%
9 PHI 295 39 21 81 25 9 0 71.06%
10 DEN 281 33 25 74 21 6 1 71.20%
11 SF 254 30 18 66 23 7 0 71.36%
12 NYJ 258 36 29 71 11 3 1 71.88%
13 NE 297 27 32 56 23 15 0 72.00%
14 BAL 277 28 29 60 19 9 1 72.10%
15 WAS 257 39 20 74 16 4 0 72.20%
16 HOU 301 31 20 68 31 8 0 72.33%
17 NYG 280 34 27 63 23 6 0 72.52%
18 MIN 273 31 26 68 17 4 0 72.55%
19 OAK 280 39 33 71 11 5 0 72.67%
20 CIN 298 29 29 65 19 8 2 72.67%
21 JAX 287 35 32 65 18 5 1 72.69%
22 MIA 271 32 28 53 23 8 1 72.84%
23 SD 271 31 28 59 15 7 1 73.30%
24 PIT 273 37 26 64 17 2 1 73.81%
25 CAR 285 38 25 61 22 4 0 74.25%
26 TB 310 38 36 59 21 3 0 74.52%
27 DAL 278 37 17 58 25 7 0 74.64%
28 TEN 324 39 36 61 16 4 1 75.47%
29 CHI 288 43 34 45 20 6 0 75.92%
30 GB 310 34 23 50 25 11 0 75.94%
31 ATL 319 37 36 49 24 2 0 76.23%
32 NO 309 39 27 54 16 4 1 77.33%

 

Differential

1 DEN 6.10%
2 NE 5.87%
3 IND 5.72%
4 BAL 5.35%
5 SEA 4.98%
6 PIT 4.42%
7 KC 4.21%
8 GB 3.70%
9 NO 2.27%
10 DAL 1.93%
11 ARZ 1.70%
12 MIA 1.33%
13 PHI 0.36%
14 SD 0.33%
15 DET 0.20%
16 NYG -0.19%
17 CIN -0.54%
18 SF -0.77%
19 CAR -0.80%
20 STL -0.97%
21 ATL -1.40%
22 CHI -1.48%
23 HOU -1.67%
24 WAS -1.92%
25 CLE -1.94%
26 BUF -1.98%
27 MIN -3.48%
28 NYJ -4.16%
29 TB -6.92%
30 JAX -7.92%
31 TEN -9.32%
32 OAK -9.71%

2014 Week 15 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 8-7-1

Straight Up: 8-8

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-0

Medium Confidence: 3-4

Low Confidence: 1-1-1

No Confidence: 4-1

Upset Picks: 1-5

On the season

Against the Spread: 125-96-3 (.566)

Straight Up: 135-72-1 (.652)

Pick of the Week: 8-6-1

High Confidence: 8-10

Medium Confidence: 45-27

Low Confidence: 30-25-2

No Confidence: 34-28

Upset Picks: 17-23

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Off-season Hobbies of NFL Stars

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

During the NFL offseason, we tend to hear a lot about what players are doing wrong, or at least the controversies that come up in their lives. A few years back, it was the horrible news that former Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez was being arrested on suspicion of murder. This year, we’ve heard stories ranging from ex-NFL star Darren Sharper’s arrest on suspicion of rape to Colin Kaepernick’s strange involvement with the Miami police. To be clear, Kaepernick has not been charged with a crime, and for that reason shouldn’t be lopped in with men like Hernandez and Sharper—but it still wasn’t a good series of headlines for the NFL.

Indeed, the NFL seems to have a problem with player conduct, and far too many arrests or suspicious incidents occur in the offseason. But this still isn’t a fair picture to pain of the league, when you consider that the majority of players are fairly normal (if, you know, famous and rich) during the offseason! So to counter the negative headlines of the past few off seasons, here are a few more cheerful activities some prominent players have enjoyed during their spring and summer months.

Russell Wilson – Professional Baseball

Nothing new here for Seahawks fans, but given the sports world’s constant lookout for the next Bo Jackson, Wilson’s offseason hobby of professional baseball has to be considered one of the most interesting extracurricular activities for NFL players. A former college baseball star, Wilson is technically a member of the Texas Rangers’ organization and has indicated on multiple occasions that he’s open to pursuing pro baseball in the future (though his primary focus remains on football, and… you know… winning Super Bowls). Wilson did spend time this offseason at the Rangers’ training camps.

Jimmy Graham – Flying

No, Jimmy Graham can’t fly, though he’s such an incredible athlete we can think of a few things that would be more shocking. He has, however, worked hard enough at learning to fly a plane that he obtained a pilot’s license and spends a great deal of time in the offseason flying around for fun. Men’s Journal even quoted Graham as saying “in my life, the sky is literally the ceiling” in a 2013 article detailing Graham’s ambition to one day partake in the Red Bull Air Race Championship.

Miles Austin – Poker

Most would say Miles Austin had a busy offseason in 2014, given the fact that he remained an unsigned free agent until being picked up by the Browns. However, Austin appears to have actually had a relaxing offseason, evidently having taken time off to pursue his other competitive hobby of playing poker. Most notably, Austin appeared in a WPT World Championship event in New Jersey earlier this year. Generally populated by pro players (but not a closed environment to celebrity guests or fortunate amateurs), these events require some serious poker chops, so we’d guess Austin is quite the experienced player. Or, perhaps, he could indeed be one of those fortunate amateurs. As is often seen on the betfair poker platform, the company often teams up with real-life tournaments to allow amateurs to earn a chance at a table filled with longtime pros, like those he took on in Jersey.

Arian Foster & Maurice Jones-Drew

You may know them best as the running backs who sabotaged your 2013 fantasy team, but both MJD and Foster remain capable backs in the league. Also, they have had some of the best individual rushing seasons in the past decade or so. Apparently, the two also enjoy their video games during the offseason, with both apparently being avid Call Of Duty fans. Realistically, there are likely hundreds of professional athletes who spend a great deal of time with video games—it’s relaxing, social, and altogether fun. But few play with enough enthusiasm to make news headlines!

These are just a few publicly known examples of offseason bobbies and activities. But with so much legal trouble reaching the news in the past few years, let’s remember that there are plenty of NFL stars who simply enjoy their fun when they’re away from the game as well.

RussellWilson_1 (1)

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)

The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 63.74% rate, as opposed to 73.35% for their opponents, a differential of -9.61%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 7th, moving the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%.

I’m not confident in the Chiefs though, as they aren’t in a great spot either. They have a much tougher game in Pittsburgh next week which could serve as a playoff tiebreaker. Teams are just 99-114 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. On top of that, this is just the 17th time that a team has been favored by double digits off of 3 straight losses in the past 25 years. Only three teams have covered in that spot over that time period, going 3-12-1 ATS. I’m going with the Chiefs to be the 4th, but I’m not confident at all.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Detroit Lions (9-4)

The Lions are in a good spot here. While they go to Chicago next week, which won’t provide much of a distraction, the Vikings have another tough game on deck, heading to Miami next week. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. The early line has the Lions favored by 4.5 in Chicago next week. Meanwhile, the early line for Miami/Minnesota is 7 and touchdown underdogs are 77-98 ATS before being touchdown underdogs since 2008.

On top of that, we’re getting some line value with the Lions. They rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.32% rate, as opposed to 70.10% for their opponents, a differential of 1.22%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 27th, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -4.72%. I’m not that confident in the Lions because there isn’t anything super powerful on their side and because they are still just 2-11 ATS off of a win of 10 or more since 2011, but they should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)

The Colts have been very good at home in the Andrew Luck era, going 16-7 ATS at home since 2002. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, as they rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 76.26% rate, as opposed to 71.26% for their opponents, a differential of 5.00%. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 20th, moving the chains at a 71.93% rate, as opposed to 72.60% for their opponents, a differential of -0.67%.

However, the Texans might be the better spot. Teams are 99-114 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. However, the Colts are only projected to be 1 point underdogs in Dallas next week and the Texans are only projected to be 1 point favorites over Baltimore, so that trend might not necessarily be in play. I’m going with the Colts, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Chicago Bears (5-8)

This might be the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On one hand, Drew Brees is 22-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline. Brees and Payton generally bounce back from adversity well and coming off of a 41-10 loss to the Panthers last week, the Saints have hit rock bottom. You could see it in Sean Payton’s press conference after the game. You could see it by the moves they made this week, cutting Joe Morgan and benching Kenny Vaccaro. I like their chances of bouncing back this week with a playoff berth somehow still up for grabs in the pathetic NFC South. Teams are 81-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more.

However, this line is still too high with the Saints favored by 3 on the road. It barely moved from last week when the early line was 3.5 and that might have even been too high then. The Saints rank 12th, moving the chains at a 79.70% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of 1.31%. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 19th, moving the chains at a 75.30% rate, as opposed to 75.69% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39. The Bears are also in a good spot off of a 41-28 home loss to the Cowboys last week as home underdogs, as home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. I’m going with the Saints, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game against Minnesota. The early line in the Minnesota game has them as 7 point favorites. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, including 18-6 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, a trend that is 39-15 ATS going back to 1989.

However, it’s not like the Patriots have any upcoming distractions either, with a trip to New York to take on the lowly Jets up next. The early line has them favored by 10. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002).

The Patriots are usually very good at home, in revenge games, and late in the season, which they have going for them here. The Patriots are undefeated at home over the past two seasons, winning 15 games by an average of 13.93 points per game and covering 11 times. Meanwhile, they haven’t lost to a divisional opponent twice in the same regular season since 2000, going 9-0 straight up and 9-0 ATS in same season divisional revenge games since 2001. Finally, they are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 23-13 ATS, including 18-1 straight up at home, 12-7 ATS.

This line is too high for me to be confident though. The Patriots are just 10-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season since 2010 as 7+ point favorites and just 5-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more over the past 2 seasons. Besides, Miami is better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.64% rate, as opposed to 72.06% for their opponents, a differential of 2.58%. The Patriots are obviously very good, ranking 2nd, moving the chains at a 77.58% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.29%, but this line is still too high for me to be confident. The Patriots are my pick though.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (7-6) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4)

This line moved from Seattle being favored by 6.5 last week to them now being favored by 10. I normally hate going with huge line movements, especially doing so also means siding with the public, because significant line movements tend to be overreactions and traps for the public who go with them. However, in this case, the line movement might be appropriate. The 49ers lost to the Raiders last week and not in a fluky fashion. They lost by 11 and they lost the chain battle as well, moving them at a 67.86% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for Oakland. The Raiders looked like the ones favored by 8 in that one, not the other way around. Sure, they were probably caught looking forward to this contest, but that’s still an inexcusable performance.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won by 10 in Philadelphia in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. The Eagles got a touchdown basically handed to them off a fluky blocked punt and the Seahawks won the chain battle, moving them at a 75.61% rate, as opposed to a pathetic 52.38% rate for Philadelphia. That moved the Seahawks into 4th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.19% rate, as opposed to 70.44% for their opponents, a differential of 4.74%. The 49ers, meanwhile, rank 17th now, moving them at a 70.73% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for their opponents, a differential of 0.24%. Even with the huge line movement, this line is still very appropriate at 10 in favor of Seattle.

Rate of moving the chains differential has this line at about 8, but that’s before you take into account Seattle’s fantastic homefield advantage. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 26-42 record away from home (30-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.26 points per game. Given that, we might actually still be getting line value with the Seahawks at 10. In 3 trips to Seattle in the Russell Wilson era, the 49ers have lost by margins of 29, 26, and 6 and that was when they were better than they are now.

The Seahawks are also in a great spot as they were projected to be 6.5 road favorites next week in Arizona and that was before the Stanton injury. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites. That’s a little misleading because a game like that coming up usually means that a team has no upcoming distractions. While that line might be appropriate for the Seahawks trip to Arizona, it’s still fair to suggest that the Seahawks might be a little distracted by their upcoming trip to face an Arizona team that still somehow leads the division at 11-3.

On top of the line movement and the public action being on Seattle, the 49ers have three things working for them. For one, divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. The only problem is that these two teams are clearly not even. The 49ers were only favored by 1 in the first matchup anyway. The Seahawks should have no problem sweeping this season series and could easily win this one by double digits.

The second thing the 49ers have going for them is that teams are 59-39 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road favorites of 7 or more, including 16-2 ATS as underdogs. On top of that, the 49ers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 111-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 94-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I still like the Seahawks, but it’s hard to be that confident in them.

Seattle Seahawks 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)

This line started out at 6 at the beginning of the week, but now is done to everything from 4-5.5 depending on where you get it. That’s despite the public being all over Green Bay, which suggests that the sharps are on Buffalo this week. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it certainly does this week, but I do still wish the line was at 6. The Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as at home, with just one road win by more than 4 points, and they’re facing a reasonable opponent here who could easily play them close, but I’d need at least 6 points to be confident going against Rodgers this week.

Rodgers has been very good no matter where he’s been this season. The Packers offense has moved the chains at an 81.55% rate at home this season and an 80.00% rate on the road. The difference is their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate on the road this season, as opposed to 73.04% at home. The Bills don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate this season, but if the Packers defense plays like it has on the road this season, they shouldn’t have a ton of trouble moving the ball.

Meanwhile, the Bills, more than maybe any other team in the league, have the personnel to slow down the Packers’ offense. Their league best defense in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed at 68.00% allowed the Broncos’ explosive offense to move the chains at a 72.00% rate in Denver last week. If they can slow down the Packers offense and move the ball on a weak Green Bay defense, then I’m happy taking the Bills getting anything more than 4 points here in Buffalo, but I’d need at least 6 to be reasonably confident in the Bills.

The Packers are in a good spot with a trip to Tampa Bay on deck, where the early line has them as 10.5 point favorites. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002). However, Buffalo has an easy game up next with a trip to Oakland on deck, where the early line has them as 4.5 point favorites. The Bills should be the right side, but again I’m not that confident.

Green Bay Packers 23 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: Low

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