New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)

The Patriots were my Pick of the Week last week and lost by 1 point as 3-point favorites, but the peripheral numbers show that the Patriots were the more efficient team, as they had the higher first down rate (33.33% vs. 30.77%) and yards per play (5.61 vs. 4.98), but lost the game because of two key lost fumbles, which happens to be one of the least predictive metrics, to the point where it’s essentially random week-to-week. I was hoping the general public would pay more attention to the result of that game and ignore that the Patriots likely would have won by a touchdown at least if they could hold onto the ball, which would have giving us even more value with the Patriots this week, but this line has shifted from favoring the Patriots by 3.5 on the early line last week to 6 this week, so that didn’t really happen. 

However, I think we are still getting line value with the Patriots, who I had as a top-10 team coming into the season, something that could easily happen despite last week’s result, if they can take better care of the football going forward. The Jets, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the league and looked that way in losing the first down rate battle (28.57% vs. 25.81%) and the yards per play battle (6.05 vs. 4.20) by significant margins against a mediocre Panthers team week one. The Jets did make noticeable upgrades on offense this season, including at the quarterback position, but they are still starting a rookie quarterback, which is especially a problem against a Bill Belichick coached defense.

On top of that, the Jets’ defense is likely to be worse than a year ago, they are starting from a lower base point than last year’s 2-14 record suggests, as their two wins easily could have been losses, and left tackle Mekhi Becton being out for the foreseeable future only makes things worse. Even with this line shifting to 6, we are getting line value with the Patriots, who I have calculated as 11-point favorites. Without another obvious choice, this is my Pick of the Week again, as I was very encouraged by a lot of what the Patriots did week one, despite the result, and think they remain underrated.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: New England -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)

I thought the Bengals could be a little bit of an underrated team this season if Joe Burrow could return to form after his ACL tear because the rest of this team is noticeably improved over the past two years. The Bengals got a win week one against the Vikings, which is not as impressive as it could be, given the Vikings’ injury issues, but it was a quality win and, more importantly, Burrow did not show any obvious signs of rust. I don’t know if the Bengals are going to be playoff qualifiers, but they are at least a middling team, with a solid quarterback, a strong group of skill position talent, and an improved offensive line and defense.

The Bears, meanwhile, look likely to be one of the worst teams in the league, at least until they make the move to Justin Fields, which would at least have the potential to energize this offense. Quarterback Andy Dalton isn’t really the main problem, but the Bears have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, while their once dominant defense is middling at best thanks to several off-seasons of key departures and injuries to key players like Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman, who will once again be once this week. Having a quarterback like Dalton under center gives them a pretty low ceiling and it’s clear the Bengals are the better of these two teams.

This line has shifted from favoring the Bears by 3.5 points on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, a big shift given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but I still think we’re getting line value, as the Bengals are several points higher in my roster rankings and should be favored by at least a couple points. This isn’t nearly as big of a play as it would have been if we were still getting more than a field goal, but I still like the Bengals enough to bet on them against the spread and as an upset pick on the money line.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +2.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Football Team (0-1)

Washington came into the season with some significant potential. They returned almost everyone from one of the best defenses in the league a year ago and made noticeable upgrades in free agency at their two biggest positions of weakness, signing quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel to give their offense some more firepower through the air. Unfortunately, just one game into the season, both Fitzpatrick and Samuel are out indefinitely, with Samuel getting hurt in training camp and Fitzpatrick leaving early in week one. 

Washington still has one of the best defenses in the league, but offensive play is much more predictive week-to-week than defensive play and this offense could arguably be worse than a year ago as their biggest strength last season was their offensive line and, with three new starters upfront, this remade group is not as good and did not play well in the opener, causing issues both on the ground and through the air. 

New starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke is getting some hype for how he played in relief of Alex Smith last season and in relief of Fitzpatrick week one, but he’s been capable at best in his limited action, which amounts to just 78 total pass attempts, and he was out of the league completely a year ago, so it’s hard to be confident that he can even continue being as capable as he’s been thus far. This offense figures to struggle significantly without Fitzpatrick and Samuel.

Fortunately for Washington, their opponents this week aren’t in great shape either. I am higher on Daniel Jones than most and he has a promising group of pass catchers, while being supported by a solid defense, but their offensive line is a real problem and running back Saquon Barkley does not look healthy in his return from a torn ACL. If they can’t run and pass protect, the Giants are going to have a tough time consistently moving the ball this season, even with an underrated quarterback and solid receiving weapons, and their defense isn’t good enough to compensate.

This line moved from 5.5 on the early line last week to 3.5 this week to compensate for Fitzpatrick’s absence, but that doesn’t cross any key numbers, so it’s not overly significant line movement (about 8% of games are decided by 4-5 points). That line suggests Washington is the noticeably better team, but I have them a lot closer in my rankings. The general public is very down on the Giants after their week one home loss to the Broncos, but the Broncos were an underrated team coming into the season and that loss might not look as bad in hindsight if the Broncos can go on to win 10-11 games, which I think they easily could. There isn’t enough here for the Giants to be worth betting, but this is likely to be a low scoring game and there is a good chance it is decided by a field goal, so I’m taking the points for pick ‘em purposes.

Washington Football Team 20 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Low

2021 Week 1 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

NE -3 vs. MIA

High Confidence Picks

BUF -6.5 vs. PIT

WAS -1 vs. LAC

Medium Confidence Picks

ARZ +3 @ TEN

SF -8.5 @ DET

NYG +3 vs. DEN

Low Confidence Picks

LV +4 vs. BAL

HOU +3 vs. JAX

IND +3 vs. SEA

TB -8 vs. DAL

No Confidence Picks

ATL -3.5 vs. PHI

NO +3.5 vs. GB

CAR -4 vs. NYJ

MIN -3 @ CIN

CLE +5.5 @ KC

LAR -7.5 vs. CHI

Upset Picks

ARZ +135 vs. TEN

NYG +145 vs. DEN

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0)

The season hasn’t begun yet, but the Ravens have already lost significant talent to injury, most shockingly their top-3 running backs JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill, who are all out for the season. On top of that, cornerback Marcus Peters is out for the year, while tight end Nick Boyle and Rashod Bateman are beginning the season on injured reserve and will miss at least the first three weeks of the season. Veteran defenders Jimmy Smith and Derek Wolfe are also unlikely to play through nagging injuries. This line has somewhat adjusted, but the Ravens are still favored by 4 points on the road in Las Vegas. 

I don’t like the Raiders that much and have them finishing sub-.500, but I still have this line calculated at Baltimore -3, so we’re getting some line value with the Raiders, who also have a big advantage in their first home game with fans in Las Vegas, on Monday Night Football against a banged up Ravens team that has to travel cross country for a night game. Pacific time zone teams cover at about a 2/3rds clip against Eastern time zone teams night games and the Raiders will have the added benefit of a rapid crowd behind them. I wish I liked the Raiders more and haven’t decided if I want to bet on them yet, but I might decide to do so before gametime. Even getting +4.5 might be enough for this to be worth betting.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Las Vegas Raiders 22

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +4

Confidence: Low

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

Both of these teams are likely to miss the post-season, but the Panthers have the slight edge. That is reflected in this line, which favors them at home by 4, which is right around my calculated line. I have gone into both of these two teams in depth in my season previews, so I don’t feel there is anything more I have to say about either team in a game that is a coin flip from a spread perspective. My numbers have the Panthers as marginally more likely to cover, but there is nothing to bet on here.

Carolina Panthers 22 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: None

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

Both of these teams are likely to miss the post-season, but the Falcons have the slight edge. That is reflected in this line, which favors them at home by 3.5, which is right around my calculated line. I have gone into both of these two teams in depth in my season previews, so I don’t feel there is anything more I have to say about either team in a game that is a coin flip from a spread perspective. My numbers have the Falcons as marginally more likely to cover, but there is nothing to bet on here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3.5

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts: 2021 NFL Week 1 Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

The Colts enter the season as one of the most banged up teams in the league. Both Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson are expected to play after suffering foot injuries early in training camp and those are their two most important players, but they might not be at 100%, while left tackle Eric Fisher, top wide receiver TY Hilton, and top cornerback Xavier Rhodes are all out for at least this week with injury.

However, this line has shifted to compensate for that, as the Colts, once 1.5-point favorites, are now field goal underdogs at home against the Seahawks. I don’t like the Colts enough to bet on them, but they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes, as it’s a lot to ask even a strong team like the Seahawks to go on the road and win by more than a field goal against a Colts team that is still at least an average team, even with all of their injury issues.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

It’s possible that no unit has improved more from last year to this year than the Browns’ defense, up there with the Vikings’ defense, which has also added significant reinforcements. The Browns added safety John Johnson, cornerback Troy Hill, cornerback Greg Newsome, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, while cornerback Greedy Williams and safety Grant Delpit are both back after missing all of last season with injury.

However, the Browns are starting from a lower base point than last year’s 11-5 record suggests, as they faced a relatively easy schedule and only had four wins by more than one score, as opposed to three double digit losses, leading to them ranking 25th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. They could have won more than four games by more than one score if they didn’t play as conservatively as they did and they will likely have to open their offense up more against tougher competition in 2021, but that will put more pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who remains an inconsistent, if high upside option under center. 

If Mayfield can take a step forward, this might be the most balanced team in the league, but the uncertainty with Mayfield keeps me from ranking the Browns up there with the top contenders in the league and they happen to be playing one of those contenders week one, with a trip to Kansas City on the schedule. The Browns could still make this a game, but my calculated line is Kansas City -5, so we’re not really getting line value with the Browns at +5.5. I would have liked them more at 6, but the line has dropped to 5.5 everywhere, so this will be a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Cleveland Browns 26

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +5.5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

The Texans are seen as a candidate to go 0-17, but, while they are one of the worst two teams in the league and unlikely to be favored in any of their games, I would actually be surprised if they didn’t pull a couple upsets. Rather than embracing a full rebuild, the Texans weirdly spent their off-season adding veterans on short-term contracts, rather than just counting this as a lost season and giving opportunities to younger players. It’s unclear what the long-term strategy is, but in the short-term it should help them not be completely awful this season. 

Given that, I think they’re a little underrated as field goal home underdogs against a Jacksonville team that should be better than last season, but still has a lot of issues and will be starting a rookie quarterback in his first game. I don’t want to bet on the Texans this week and probably won’t want to bet on them many weeks unless we’re getting clear value, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes, as the Jaguars haven’t earned being field goal road favorites over anyone yet. I still expect the Jaguars to win, but it wouldn’t be a shock if this was one of the Texans upset victories this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Houston Texans 26

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: Low