Month: December 2014

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

The Bengals had a huge performance in Cleveland last week, winning the first down battle 24-5 against the Browns and moving the chains at a 78.38% rate, as opposed to 35.71% for their opponents. However, they still rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -0.54%. Meanwhile, the Broncos are best in the NFL, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 71.20% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10%. Despite what the Bengals did last week, the Broncos definitely deserve to be field goal favorites here on the board.

The Broncos are also in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game, winning in San Diego last week. Teams are 56-37 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.

On top of that, Manning has been very good in primetime games in his career, going 33-16 ATS in such games since 2003, over a decade ago. Andy Dalton doesn’t have the same amount of experience in these types of games so the sample size isn’t as big, but the Bengals don’t have a good history in games like this since he took over as the starter in 2011, going 2-9, including 3 playoff losses. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely not good, especially when you compare it with Manning and his much larger sample size.

The Broncos also have the much easier game next week so they won’t be as distracted, as they host the Raiders in a game that could have this season’s biggest line. Non-divisional road favorites are 79-63 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 46-34 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 14 or more. Meanwhile, the Bengals have an equally big, if not bigger, game next week in Pittsburgh, a divisional opponent who they are competing with for both the division crown and potentially a wild card spot. I like the Broncos chances of covering here a good amount.

Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Rams, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)

This line is off. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites here at home despite the fact that the Giants rank better in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants rank 16th, moving them at a 72.33% rate, as opposed to 72.52% for their opponents, a differential of -0.19%. Meanwhile, the Rams come in at 20th, moving the chains at a 69.15% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of -0.97%. On top of that, the Giants historically don’t have as much trouble, relatively, away from home as the rest of the league. Since 2004, the Giants are 52-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 51-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.74 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally worse on the road (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate.

Neither of these teams is in a great spot with the Rams going to take on the Seahawks in Seattle next week and the Giants heading home to take on the Eagles. Non-divisional home favorites are 89-108 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional road underdogs are 61-83 ATS before being divisional home underdogs over that same time period. However, the Rams are in the worst spot as they are projected to be double digit underdogs next week (the early line is Seattle -10). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Giants are projected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, but the Rams still have the more powerful trend working against them. The Giants should be the right side.

St. Louis Rams 20 New York Giants 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)

The Packers haven’t been nearly the same team on the road this season. That was evident last week in a loss in Buffalo and it’s been evident all year as they’ve beaten just one team by more than 4 points on the road all season, relevant considering this line is all the way up at 10.5 On the season, they move the chains at a 77.57% rate, as opposed to 78.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.35%. However, there are reasons to like them here as big road favorites. For one, Tampa Bay isn’t great at home, going 14-31 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. That makes taking the Packers as massive road favorites less scary, especially with Gerald McCoy out for the Buccaneers.

Two, the Packers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 137-110 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 1989, including 101-86 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good off of a loss in his career, going 20-10 ATS in that spot.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot with the Saints coming to town next week. The early line has them projected as 4.5 point home underdogs in that one. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs. On top of that, non-divisional home underdogs are 15-32 ATS before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. It’s hard to be confident in the Packers on the road, even against a bad team with minimal homefield advantage, but I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way this week and they should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)

At first glance, this line is actually a little bit too low at 7. The Dolphins rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.16% rate, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank all the way down at 27th, moving the chains at a 69.08% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of -3.48%. That suggests that the line should be around 8. However, over the past 4 weeks, the Dolphins move the chains at a 73.33% rate, as opposed to 82.09% for their opponents, a differential of -8.76%.

The fact that they’ve played Denver, New England, and Baltimore over that 4 weeks stretch probably didn’t help, but they also almost lost in New York to the Jets. On top of that, the Ravens aren’t nearly as good on the road and they blew out the Dolphins in Miami. And New England is a tough opponent, but they got completely blown out. They only covered once in that 4 game stretch. They aren’t the same team as they were a month ago, partially as a result of injuries. As bad as the Vikings have been this year, they don’t quite deserve to be touchdown underdogs here.

The Vikings are also in a great spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 112-77 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 95-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.

Both of these two teams have easy games next week, with the Dolphins hosting the Jets and the Vikings hosting the Bears. Both teams will be 6+ favorites next week, but the Vikings are in a slightly better spot because they’re the underdog here. Non-divisional road underdogs are 124-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Underdogs of 6 or more are 145-96 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 6 or more. Combining the two, non-divisional road underdogs of 6 or more before being divisional home favorites of 6 or more are 39-23 ATS since 1989. At the same time though, favorites of 6 or more (like the Dolphins) are 95-64 ATS since 2010 before being favorites of 6 or more. The Vikings seem like the right side, but I’m not super confident.

Miami Dolphins 20 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Houston Texans (7-7)

This line was Houston -1 last week and now it’s Baltimore -6 in Houston. That’s a massive line movement, as it’s moved a full touchdown to compensate for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury. That’s a massive overreaction. Fitzpatrick is decent, but the Texans’ offense ranks just 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains. Meanwhile, both Case Keenum and Thad Lewis, the two candidates to start in this game, showed some decent flashes last season in brief periods as the starter. They’re downgrades from Fitzpatrick, but they’re not Ryan Lindley.

The Texans still have a solid defense (16th in rate of moving the chains allowed) and do not deserve to be 6 point home underdogs here. If Tom Brady got hurt this week, it don’t think that line would move more than a touchdown (that would put the Patriots at -3 at the Jets). The same thing is true with Aaron Rodgers (that would put Green Bay at -3.5 at Tampa Bay). When Rodgers got hurt last year, the line moved 6 points to compensate the following week. The reason this line moved 7 points instead of something more reasonable like 4 is because the odds makers know the public will still bet this spread no matter how high they put it, as they are doing so here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and this feels like a trap line for the public.

The Ravens rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving them at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 72.10% for their opponents, a differential of 5.35%. Meanwhile, the Texans come in 23rd, moving them at a 70.66% rate, as opposed to 72.33% for their opponents, a differential of -1.67%. That suggests this line should be about 4 in favor of Baltimore, which suggests that a line of 6 once you’ve taken injuries into account is reasonable, but Baltimore hasn’t been nearly as good on the road this season. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 76.23% rate, as opposed to 75.56% for their opponents, a differential of 0.68% that is 10 percentage points lower than 10.48% differential they have at home this season.

These relative road struggles are nothing new for the Ravens. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 46-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. Both of these two teams are in a good spot with easy games on deck, Houston with a home game against Jacksonville and Baltimore with a home game against Cleveland, but Houston is in the better spot here as significant home underdogs. Underdogs of 6 or more are 68-57 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 6 or more, while home underdogs of 3 or more are 65-45 ATS since 1989 before being home favorites of 3 or more. The Texans should be the right side here.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Raiders, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (2-12)

This line shifted from 4.5 to 6 over the past week with the Bills winning at home in upset fashion over the Packers. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense because they’re usually overreactions, especially when I can do so and fade the public at the same time, because the public always loses money in the long run. The public is on Buffalo here in a big way and the line movement is a bit of an overreaction. The Bills won on the scoreboard, but the Packers won the first down battle 21-13 and moved the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 54.17% for the Bills.

That being said, it’s not quite a big enough line movement for me to be excited about the Raiders this week, even if it is at the key number of 6. The Bills rank 26th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.76% rate, as opposed to 67.74% for their opponents, a differential of -1.98%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last on the season in that aspect, moving the chains at a 62.95% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -9.71%. That suggests this line should be right around where it was last week at 4.5. However, this line would have to be a touchdown or more for me to be confident in Oakland.

The Bills are in a bad spot this week, as they have a much tougher game in New England next week.. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up here in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The 49ers are more talented than the Bills. However, the Raiders aren’t exactly in a great spot with a trip to Denver on deck (though they weren’t against San Francisco either with a trip to Kansas City on deck at that point). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I’m still going with the Raiders, but, again, I’d need a touchdown to put money on it.

Buffalo Bills 13 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Oakland +6

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (10-4) at Chicago Bears (5-9)

This line was 4.5 last week, but it’s since moved to 7 in favor of the Lions, a line movement of 2.5 points that crossed both significant numbers of 6 and 7. It’s easy to understand why the line moved after the Bears were embarrassed on national television by the Saints. However, I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, especially if I get to fade the public in the process, as the public always loses money in the long run. This week’s game meets all those conditions as the public is all over the Lions, despite the line movement, and the line movement was unwarranted and an overreaction.

Yes, the Bears looked bad at home last week against the Saints, but the Lions didn’t exactly look good either, needing 3 Minnesota missed field goals and two Minnesota interceptions, including one that set the Lions’ offense up at the Minnesota 11, to beat the Vikings by 2 at home. The Vikings won the first down battle in that game by 10, 21-11. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions moved the chains at a 57.14% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -17.05%. That’s actually worse than the Bears, who moved the chains at a 62.07% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of -16.31%. And the Bears did so against a much better team, as the Saints rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Vikings are in 27th.

When you look at how both of these two teams have done on the entire season in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, it becomes obvious that there’s significant line value with the Bears, especially after that unwarranted line movement. The Lions rank 15th on the season, moving the chains at a 70.60% rate, as opposed to 70.41% for their opponents, a differential of 0.20%. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 74.43% rate, as opposed to 75.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.48%. There’s no way the Lions deserve to be favored by a touchdown here.

On top of that, the Lions are in a terrible spot. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The Lions could easily slip up here with a much bigger game in Green Bay next week, especially since the talent difference between the Bears and Lions isn’t nearly as much as the Raiders and 49ers.

Update: The Bears made the surprise move today to go to Jimmy Clausen instead of Jay Cutler at quarterback. I apologize to anyone who put money on Chicago +7 at my recommendation. I didn’t see this coming. Clausen is definitely not an upgrade on Cutler, who hasn’t been the problem in Chicago, leading this offense to be 11th ranked in rate of moving the chains differential. This move was likely just made as a wake up call to the rest of the team and it may do it’s job, at least for the time being, as everyone is getting fired in Chicago this off-season. The line has moved to 9 as a result and I still like Chicago at +9 with Clausen, which is the good news for anyone who took Chicago +7. I’m not as confident as I was before because I don’t think 2 points is enough of an adjustment for Cutler being out, so we’re losing some line value, but the Lions are still in a terrible spot and we’re still getting some line value by fading a Detroit offense that hasn’t moved the ball well all season as massive road favorites. There’s also some small Josh McCown potential with Clausen, who looked good in the pre-season, in Trestman’s system. Chicago is still the pick here and it’s still a money pick, but not as high a confidence pick as it was before.

Detroit Lions 20 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +9

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Colts, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

The Cowboys got an impressive victory in Philadelphia last week and that moved this line from even to 3 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense. This is a significant movement, going as it’s now at a key number, and fading it does make sense. That line movement is a massive overreaction to what happened last week. Sure, the Cowboys won in Philadelphia, but that doesn’t erase the fact that they got blown out at home by those same Eagles in Dallas on Thanksgiving. They aren’t as bad as they looked on Thanksgiving, but they aren’t as good as they looked last week. It’s important to remember that.

On the season, the Cowboys rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.58% rate, as opposed to 74.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.93%. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 75.79% rate, as opposed to 70.07% for their opponents, a differential of 5.72%. This line suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all. We’re getting significant line value with the Cowboys before you even get into the fact that they are 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010, a big part of the reason why they lost to Philadelphia here 3 weeks ago. A similar thing could happen this week only the Colts are a better opponent than the Eagles.

The Cowboys are in a good spot with only a trip to Washington left on the schedule. They’ll almost certainly be significant road favorites in Washington next week. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, and 25-10 ATS before being 7+ road favorites. However, the Colts are in an equally good spot with a trip to Tennessee on deck. On top of that, the Cowboys are also 14-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter, including 6-14 ATS at home and 5-13 ATS as home favorites. In a tough week for picks, the Colts are my Pick of the Week.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)

This is the worst game of the year. Both of these two teams rank in the bottom-3 in rate of moving the chains differential and have for most of the season. This is the only game this year between two teams that bad. And thanks to the NFL’s rule that everyone get a primetime game, we have to watch this game instead of one of the 14 games that features at least one team still mathematically alive in the playoff race.

Believe it or not, one of these teams is actually better than the other one. Jacksonville is noticeably, but though not really significantly better than the Titans. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 64.76% rate, as opposed to 72.69% for their opponents, a differential of -7.92%, while the Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 66.15% rate, as opposed to 75.47% for their opponents, a differential of -9.32% that is over a percentage point worse than Jacksonville’s. Despite that, this line says these two teams are even, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Jaguars.

However, I’m not taking the Jaguars, because they’re in a horrible spot. They have to go to Houston next week where they will be road underdogs. Divisional home favorites are 20-53 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which is one of the most powerful trends there is. Meanwhile, Tennessee is on an 8 game losing streak (last winning week 6 against these Jaguars). Teams tend to cover on long losing streaks, going 64-40 ATS since 1989 off of 8+ straight losses.

It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. They’re not undervalued, but they could be overlooked and embarrassed. I’m not confident in the Titans though because they’re in a bad spot with a home game with the Colts on deck. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs. The Titans seem like the right side though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 GB 309 47 29 45 10 4 3 79.64%
2 NO 354 44 22 51 23 6 0 79.60%
3 PIT 342 39 28 56 16 6 0 78.23%
4 NE 328 45 33 57 12 4 0 77.87%
5 BAL 308 39 32 46 17 6 0 77.46%
6 DEN 313 48 24 60 16 6 0 77.30%
7 DAL 297 43 25 52 23 3 1 76.58%
8 IND 338 47 28 59 28 7 1 75.79%
9 SEA 289 34 32 54 12 7 1 75.29%
10 ATL 296 37 28 57 20 6 1 74.83%
11 CHI 293 36 12 61 28 12 0 74.43%
12 MIA 302 31 34 51 20 11 0 74.16%
13 KC 272 35 21 65 16 6 0 73.98%
14 SD 278 32 24 66 17 4 0 73.63%
15 CAR 303 29 31 65 21 3 0 73.45%
16 NYG 295 37 18 71 27 11 0 72.33%
17 CIN 274 34 28 65 21 5 0 72.13%
18 PHI 303 37 31 67 34 4 0 71.43%
19 HOU 271 30 29 69 19 7 1 70.66%
20 DET 265 28 35 63 16 8 0 70.60%
21 SF 264 24 28 65 20 7 0 70.59%
22 ARZ 259 25 30 78 11 1 0 70.30%
23 WAS 277 28 24 70 25 10 0 70.28%
24 STL 250 28 26 72 21 5 0 69.15%
25 MIN 253 24 31 69 18 5 1 69.08%
26 CLE 270 27 28 81 20 9 0 68.28%
27 NYJ 255 22 31 72 22 6 1 67.73%
28 TB 239 26 21 66 31 8 1 67.60%
29 TEN 230 24 19 76 25 8 2 66.15%
30 BUF 242 25 36 73 20 8 2 65.76%
31 JAX 241 20 25 80 26 11 0 64.76%
32 OAK 220 23 17 94 27 5 0 62.95%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 270 24 29 76 30 4 1 67.74%
2 ARZ 260 24 27 70 25 8 0 68.60%
3 KC 270 23 34 71 11 11 0 69.76%
4 IND 275 34 17 80 22 13 0 70.07%
5 STL 266 25 23 69 24 8 0 70.12%
6 CLE 299 31 31 74 27 7 1 70.21%
7 SEA 245 25 20 68 20 5 1 70.31%
8 DET 269 26 22 73 22 6 1 70.41%
9 PHI 295 39 21 81 25 9 0 71.06%
10 DEN 281 33 25 74 21 6 1 71.20%
11 SF 254 30 18 66 23 7 0 71.36%
12 NYJ 258 36 29 71 11 3 1 71.88%
13 NE 297 27 32 56 23 15 0 72.00%
14 BAL 277 28 29 60 19 9 1 72.10%
15 WAS 257 39 20 74 16 4 0 72.20%
16 HOU 301 31 20 68 31 8 0 72.33%
17 NYG 280 34 27 63 23 6 0 72.52%
18 MIN 273 31 26 68 17 4 0 72.55%
19 OAK 280 39 33 71 11 5 0 72.67%
20 CIN 298 29 29 65 19 8 2 72.67%
21 JAX 287 35 32 65 18 5 1 72.69%
22 MIA 271 32 28 53 23 8 1 72.84%
23 SD 271 31 28 59 15 7 1 73.30%
24 PIT 273 37 26 64 17 2 1 73.81%
25 CAR 285 38 25 61 22 4 0 74.25%
26 TB 310 38 36 59 21 3 0 74.52%
27 DAL 278 37 17 58 25 7 0 74.64%
28 TEN 324 39 36 61 16 4 1 75.47%
29 CHI 288 43 34 45 20 6 0 75.92%
30 GB 310 34 23 50 25 11 0 75.94%
31 ATL 319 37 36 49 24 2 0 76.23%
32 NO 309 39 27 54 16 4 1 77.33%

 

Differential

1 DEN 6.10%
2 NE 5.87%
3 IND 5.72%
4 BAL 5.35%
5 SEA 4.98%
6 PIT 4.42%
7 KC 4.21%
8 GB 3.70%
9 NO 2.27%
10 DAL 1.93%
11 ARZ 1.70%
12 MIA 1.33%
13 PHI 0.36%
14 SD 0.33%
15 DET 0.20%
16 NYG -0.19%
17 CIN -0.54%
18 SF -0.77%
19 CAR -0.80%
20 STL -0.97%
21 ATL -1.40%
22 CHI -1.48%
23 HOU -1.67%
24 WAS -1.92%
25 CLE -1.94%
26 BUF -1.98%
27 MIN -3.48%
28 NYJ -4.16%
29 TB -6.92%
30 JAX -7.92%
31 TEN -9.32%
32 OAK -9.71%