Year: 2021

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

The Browns lost week one, but they still are one of the top teams in the league, as their loss came in Kansas City in a game in which the Browns won both the first down rate (7.68%) and yards per play battle (1.65), while the Browns’ two wins came in blowout fashion. Their offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in first down rate, while their defense ranks 4th in yards per play allowed, which are the most predictive metrics on either side of the ball. This matches up with my roster rankings and overall I have the Browns 9.5 points above average.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Browns as 2 point favorites in Minnesota, as the Vikings have been an underrated team since the season began, with a strong offense and a defense that is much healthier and more talented than a year ago. The Vikings are just 1-2, but their two losses have come by a combined 4 points and their +9 point differential ranks 13th in the NFL. They could easily be 2-1 or 3-0, despite facing a tough schedule to start the season (Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks) and they are getting healthier too, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw set to make his season debut, shoring up a big position of need. The Browns should be able to win this game, but an upset wouldn’t surprise me either, so I am going to keep this as a low confidence pick for now.

Update: Darrisaw will be active for the Vikings, but apparently will not start in his debut. On top of that, the Vikings will be without one of their two questionable defensive starters, Anthony Barr, who has yet to play this season and will remain a significant absence. At the same time, this line has moved to even, so the Browns only have to win to cover now. They’re worth a big play, given these developments.

Cleveland Browns 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland PK

Confidence: High

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Dolphins were on my overrated teams list going into the season. They won 10 games a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%) and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL).

The Dolphins are off to a 1-2 start, but it’s even worse than that suggests as their point differential (-37) is 4th worst in the NFL and they could easily be 0-3 if the Patriots didn’t fumble two likely scoring drives away in a 1-point Miami win, a game in which the Patriots had a better first down rate (+2.56%) and a higher yards per play attempt (+0.63). The Dolphins took the Raiders to overtime last week and could have won that game, but they needed a long return touchdown to keep it close and lost the first down rate battle by 6.50% and the yards per play battle by 1.91. Through three games, the Dolphins rank 30th in first down rate and their defense hasn’t been nearly good enough to compensate.

That being said, the Dolphins are getting a relatively easy matchup against an 0-3 Colts team. The Colts have faced a tough schedule thus far (Seahawks, Rams, Titans), could have beaten the Rams, and have a better point differential (-24) than the Dolphins, but their injury situation keeps getting worse. In total, they are missing their top-2 offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, their top wide receiver TY Hilton, a pair of starters in the secondary in Rock Ya-Sin and Khari Willis, and talented first round pick defensive end Kwity Paye, while starting quarterback Carson Wentz is less than 100% playing through two bad ankles. 

The Colts might not be quite as bad as their 0-3 record, but given all they are missing due to injury, I have them ranked as my 6th worst team right now, 4.5 points below average and actually a half point behind the Dolphins. The Dolphins have some injury concerns, but their most notable injury, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, might not actually be hurting this team’s chances of winning games, as Tagovailoa has struggled thus far in his limited career, while backup Jacoby Brissett could possibly be an upgrade, or at least not a downgrade. The Dolphins are only getting 2 points at home, but being a slightly better team at home should have them favored by at least a field goal. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Dolphins to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Miami Dolphins 20 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Miami -2

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Bills are favored by 17 points in this matchup, but it should be 21 according to my calculated line, as the Texans have the worst roster in the league around the quarterback and only had early success this season because of the strong play of now injured quarterback Tyrod Taylor. With the raw rookie Davis Mills under center, the Texans are by far the worst team in the league, 13.5 points below average in my roster rankings.

Meanwhile the Bills (5 points above average) are one of the top teams in the league overall, even without safety Jordan Poyer, who is expected to miss this game. I can’t take the Bills with any confidence though because it’s always hard to be confident in huge favorites, especially since the Bills could be caught in a look ahead spot with a trip to Kansas City on deck. The Bills are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this could just as easily be a 14-point win as it could be a 21-point win and the Bills could slack off with a big second half lead and allow a backdoor cover.

Buffalo Bills 28 Houston Texans 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -17

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

The Denver Broncos have gotten off to a 3-0 and, while they have faced bad teams in all three games (Giants, Jets, Jaguars), they have won all three in convincing fashion, by an average of 20 points per game. This home matchup against the Ravens is their first real test and, while they could easily win, I would have liked their chances more before all of the injuries started piling up, with the Broncos already down starting wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, guard Graham Glasgow, edge defender Bradley Chubb, cornerback Ronald Darby, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell just since week one. My calculated line has them favored by a point rather than underdog of a point, as the actual line has, but that’s not nearly enough to bet on. The Broncos are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but nothing more.

Sunday Update: The line has moved to favoring the Broncos by a point now instead of the Ravens. I’ve also rethought this game slightly and see it as no more than a 50/50 toss up, given the opposite direction these two teams are moving in injury wise. Given that, I’m now taking the Ravens since we are at least getting a point with them, but I’m dropping all confidence on this matchup because that one point isn’t worth much.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Denver Broncos 23

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +1

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2)

This is arguably the most anticipated regular season matchup of all time with Tom Brady returning to New England with his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay, thanks to the support of a strong supporting cast that was legitimately a quarterback away before Brady’s arrival, while the Patriots have struggled to find success, going 7-9 in a rebuilding year last season and starting this season a disappointing 1-2, including a pair of home losses as favorites, despite a big off-season addition of talent.

The Patriots could easily be 2-1 right now though, as they won the first down rate (+2.56%) and yards per play (+0.63) battle in a 1-point home loss to the Dolphins, a game in which they fumbled away two likely scoring drives. Their loss to the Saints last week looked bad, but it’s very possible they were caught looking forward to this game. The same could also be true of the Buccaneers, who lost last week in Los Angeles to the Rams, but the Buccaneers were also playing a better team, which explains their loss more, and overall I think this game is more meaningful for the Patriots, who still have many former teammates and coaches of Tom Brady, while the Buccaneers only have a few former Patriots. 

I do expect a strong effort from the Buccaneers because they are coming off a loss and Tom Brady is 47-22 ATS all-time after a loss, which is what deters me from betting on the Patriots in a big way, but that record is not as impressive as touchdown or more favorites on the road and this line has shot up to seven in the aftermath of last week’s results, with the public and odds makers clearly souring on the Patriots more than the Buccaneers. My calculated line is Tampa Bay -4, so we’re getting enough line value for the Patriots to be at least worth a play at +7. This bet would probably increase if the Patriots finally got right tackle Trent Brown back healthy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New England Patriots 23

Pick against the spread: New England +7

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers pulled a big upset win over the Chiefs last week, but they needed to win the turnover battle by 4 to do so, which is not predictive week-to-week. In more predictive metrics, the Chargers had a -7.92% first down rate differential. The Chargers were already overrated going into that game as they have just two wins by multiple scores in their past nine wins and they came against the 1-15 Jaguars and the Chiefs’ backups, but now the Chargers are more overrated.

The Raiders are not as good as their 3-0 record, as the Steelers and Dolphins are below average opponents, while their win over the Ravens came in overtime in a game in which they had a big advantage as a pacific time zone home team in a night game, in their first game in Las Vegas in front of fans. However, they are still about a point better than the Chargers in my roster rankings and the Chargers should only get about a point for homefield advantage anyway, perhaps less against the Raiders, who have a large fanbase in Los Angeles. The Chargers could also be a little flat after last week’s upset win as favorites are 32-47 ATS since 1989 after a divisional win as touchdown underdogs or more. There is a good chance the Raiders are able to win this one outright and if not, I like getting a field goal of protection in case they lose.

Las Vegas Raiders 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

The Rams are getting all of the attention for their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals have been equally impressive, if not more so, actually ranking slightly higher overall than the Rams in more predictive metrics. Despite that, the Rams are being favored by 4 points at home as if they are a significantly better team. Even if these two teams are about even, the Rams should be favored by no more than a field goal. That might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and the Rams also aren’t in a great spot either. 

I know this is a matchup of undefeated divisional rivals, but the Rams have beaten the Cardinals 8 straight times since Sean McVay arrived and this game in sandwiched between their big win over the Buccaneers last week and a short week against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 41.9% rate before a Thursday game), so this could be a little bit of a trap game for the Rams, especially since they are expected to win relatively easily, despite their opponents also being one of the top teams in the league. I don’t put much stock in the recent matchups between these teams because this is a different Cardinals team, so there is enough here for me to take the Cardinals for a small play. The most likely results of this game are either team winning by 3 or winning by 1 and all four of those results would cover this spread.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +4

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Steelers have lost at home in back-to-back weeks to the Raiders and Bengals. Injuries have been part of the problem and they will get their top-2 edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith back this week, but their problems go beyond their injuries, as their offense remains one of the worst in the league, while their defense isn’t quite as good as a year ago and can’t carry this offense like it could a year ago, when they won a lot of close games against an easy schedule. It’s a tough task to ask the Steelers to go to Green Bay and be competitive with the Packers, who have bounced back in a big way since their shocking week one blowout loss against the Saints. 

The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago as Aaron Rodgers isn’t quite playing at a career best level and key players like David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Za’Darius Smith are out with injury, but I still have them favored by 9 points at home over the Steelers, before even taking into account how dominant the Packers have been at home with Aaron Rodgers, going 45-22 ATS at home in games with fans when Rodgers starts and finishes the game. This isn’t a big bet, but as long as this line is under a touchdown, the Packers are worth a play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)

The Saints have easily been the most unpredictable team in the league thus far this season, with their two wins coming by 35 points and 15 points and their one loss coming by 19 points. It’s hard to figure them out, but not as hard as their final scores would suggest, as overall the Saints have averaged out to be about a middling team, with one of the better defenses in the league, but also one of the less efficient offenses, even in the Saints’ victories. 

They’re also growing more short handed by the week, adding stud left tackle Terron Armstead to a group of absences that includes top wide receiver Michael Thomas, talented kicker Will Lutz, top interior defender David Onyemata, talented center Erik McCoy, starting linebacker Kwon Alexander, and starting defensive end Marcus Davenport, and they’ve yet to put together back-to-back good weeks, so this line favoring them by a full touchdown over the Giants seems a little high. 

The Giants haven’t won a game yet, but they have played their last two games close and  they won the yards per play battle in both, so they could easily be 2-1 right now. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Giants, as my calculated line has them as 6-point underdogs, but the Saints could be flat again after last week’s big week, like they were in week 2 against Carolina, especially since they are making their home debut in week 4. 

I mentioned this last week a few times, but teams tend to let their guard down in a home opener in week 3 or later and tend not to cover the spread, doing so only about 36.4% of the time. That could easily be the case for a team that will be exhausted from spending the first month of the season on the road, battling injuries, coming off of a big win, and facing a winless opponent that has come close in back-to-back weeks. This isn’t a big play, but the Giants are worth betting if you can get a full touchdown.

New Orleans Saints 17 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys have proven they have among the best offenses in the league. A year ago, they finished 13th in first down rate despite missing their starting quarterback and their top-3 offensive linemen for most of the season, including a 4th place rank through 4th games before the injury to Dak Prescott, and this season they have picked up right where they left off, leading the league in first down rate through 3 games this season. Their defense isn’t good, but they are less bad than the offense is good, they are better than a year ago, and offense is the more predictive side of the ball, so the Cowboys are in pretty good shape going forward. Overall, I have them ranked 10th, about 3.5 points above average.

The Panthers are 3-0, but I am not sold on them, as two of their wins have come against possibly the two worst teams in the league and not in overly convincing fashion, while their win over the Saints could easily be a fluke as a result of the Saints being flat off of a huge win the week before. Their defense could be for real, but I am not sold on Sam Darnold or this offensive line against tougher competition, especially without Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys aren’t tougher competition on the defensive side, but it’ll be tough for this Panthers offense to match points with the Cowboys’ offense if the Cowboys offense can predictably have the edge over the Panthers’ largely untested defense.

I still have the Panthers about 2.5 points below average, giving us a calculated line of Dallas -8.5 at home, which means we’re getting good line value with the Cowboys as 4.5 point favorites. The Cowboys are also in a good spot because teams tend to carry over the momentum from a big Monday Night Football win, covering at about a 60% rate the week following a win by 20 or more points, which the Cowboys had over the Eagles last week. Without another great option this week, the Cowboys are my Pick of the Week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week