Year: 2022

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

I was surprised this line was so low, favoring the Chargers by just 5 points, after favoring them by 7.5 points on the early line last week. The Seahawks did pull the minor upset at home over the Cardinals last week, but the Cardinals are an overrated team who ranks just 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency and who should never have been favored in that game in the first place, so that win should not have moved this line by that much. 

The Chargers had a pretty underwhelming performance last week, eking out a win over the Broncos, and they’ve had a slower start to the season than expected, going 4-2, but having a negative point differential and ranking just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, in large part due to injuries to key players like center Corey Linsley, left tackle Rashawn Slater, edge defender Joey Bosa, wide receiver Keenan Allen, and cornerback JC Jackson, who have all missed significant time this season. However, Linsley will play this week, Jackson could be better another week removed from his injury, and Allen may also return, so things are looking up injury wise.

With their injury situation improving, the Chargers rank about a point above average in my roster rankings, not as high as they were ranked to begin the season, but still better than they’ve played thus far this season. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 6 points below average in my roster rankings. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Seahawks actually rank slightly higher than the Chargers, ranking 21st, but that is primarily due to an offense that ranks 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while their defense ranks 31st, and I think it’s much more likely that their defense continues to struggle than it is that their offense continues playing at a high level, with quarterback Geno Smith’s performance likely to regress going forward.

My calculated line for this game is Chargers -7 and that’s even taking into account that the Chargers have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, leading to them going just 16-26 ATS at home since moving in 2017. We’re not getting significant line value with the Chargers at -5, but they are in a good spot with a bye up next. Home favorites of 6+ cover the spread at a 63.3% rate before a bye and, while the Chargers are not favored by that much, they deserve to be, so that trend could still apply. I am waiting on the injury status of Keenan Allen and Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett, but, assuming Allen returns after two weeks of limited practice and Lockett does not play after not practicing all week, the Chargers should be bettable this week. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I will update this pick before gametime.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Earlier in the week, the Browns at +6.5 seemed like an intriguing bet in this game, as the Ravens are in a tough spot with a game against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football on deck, with favorites covering at just a 42.6% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. However, since earlier this week, the injury news has been in Baltimore’s favor, with the Browns ruling out one of their most important players, stud right guard Wyatt Teller, and the Ravens possibly getting back wide receiver Rashod Bateman and edge defender Justin Houston, a pair of key re-additions. 

It might be unlikely that Bateman and Houston both play, but it’s unlikely at least one of them returns and, with Teller out, if one of those two players plays, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by a touchdown, so we’re not getting any line value with the Browns anymore. I’ll still take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes because the Ravens are getting an insignificant amount of line value and are in a bad spot, but if Bateman and Houston both play, I might flip my pick to Baltimore. That’s how close this one is in my opinion. Either way, this would be a no confidence pick.

Update: Bateman and Houston are both playing, so I am switching to the Ravens, who are healthier than they’ve been for most of the season and are facing a Browns team missing one of their best players in Wyatt Teller.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Washington Commanders (2-4)

The Packers are a disappointing 3-3, but that’s not all that surprising. They won 13 games a year ago, but they finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron Rodgers who, as good as he is, was no guarantee to play at quite the same level in 2022, now in his age 39 season. Add in the loss of by far their top wide receiver Davante Adams this off-season and some regression was to be expected from them, especially on offense.

In many ways, things have gone how you might expect, given the circumstances. The Packers’ defense has remained middling, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 21st in 2022, but their offense has fallen off significantly, falling from 4th in offensive efficiency a year ago to 14th this season, while their horrendous special teams that ranked dead last efficiency a year ago has only been slightly better this year, ranking 30th. 

All in all, the Packers rank just 20th in overall efficiency when adjusted for schedule, about 1.5 points below average, and my roster rankings tell a similar story, with the Packers about a half point below average. Last week’s performance was especially concerning, as they were largely uncompetitive against the Jets, losing by a final score of 27-10 and losing the first down rate and yards per play battles by 5.09% and 1.22 respectively, despite being at home, where they had previously won 15 straight regular season games and where they had previously been 47-20 ATS in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers throughout his career.

The Packers still seem to be overrated though, favored by 5 points on the road in Washington, with this line barely moving from the early line a week ago. Washington did lose starting quarterback Carson Wentz for an extended period of time with injury, but backup Taylor Heinicke is unlikely to be a significant downgrade. The Commanders are still an underwhelming team that ranks 25th in overall efficiency, but they are only three points behind the Packers in that metric and about four points behind the Packers in my roster rankings, so this line is too high.

The Packers also struggle more than most teams do away from home, due to their dominant homefield advantage, with Aaron Rodgers’ QB rating dropping by 10 points on the road in his career, well above the average drop off for a quarterback on the road. My calculated line favors the Packers by just a point and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if they lost this game outright, in part because they are in a bad spot, with a much tougher game against the Bills on deck next week. 

Road favorites cover at just a 35.7% rate before facing an opponent with a winning percentage that is 50%+ higher than their current opponent and facing the 5-1 Bills after facing the 2-4 Commanders would qualify. Even if Washington can’t pull the upset, we have a good amount of points to work with, with about 35% of games being decided by 5 points or less, so I’m confident in Washington at +5. This is my top pick this week.

Washington Commanders 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +185

Pick against the spread: Washington +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)

Tom Brady led teams typically bounce back well after a loss and the Buccaneers lost last week in Pittsburgh, but Brady’s ATS record after a loss is significantly better when he’s not a heavy favorite, going 36-12 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown, but just 11-14 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown. This week, the Buccaneers are whopping 13 point favorites in Carolina, so Brady’s track record after a loss probably won’t be as relevant to the Buccaneers’ chances of covering this spread.

That being said, this line is somewhat justifiable, given how bad the Panthers are right now. They actually have a solid defense, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but offensive performance is significantly more predictive week-to-week than defensive performance and their offense is the worst in the league by a significant margin, leading to the Panthers ranking dead last in overall schedule adjusted efficiency, despite a decent defense. 

Things will get even worse on offense this week for the Panthers, starting 4th string quarterback PJ Walker for the second straight week, only this time without by far their best offensive player, Christian McCaffrey, who the rebuilding Panthers sent to the 49ers in a mid-week trade this week. Even the Panthers’ defense could have significant problems this week, with key injuries piling up, losing talented safety Jeremy Chinn back in week 3 and now being without talented interior defender Matt Ioannidis, who will miss his first game of the season this week.

The Buccaneers’ offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 17th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are more talented than that on paper and they are significantly healthier now than they were earlier in the season, while their defense ranks 1st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency by a wide margin, leading to the Buccaneers ranking 4th in schedule adjusted overall efficiency. That’s is more or less in line with where they rank in my roster rankings, in which they have a 14-point edge over the Panthers.

That 14-point gap does suggest that the Buccaneers are a little overvalued as 13-point road favorites though, even if slightly. The Buccaneers are also in somewhat of a tough spot with a much tougher game on deck against the Ravens, which happens to be on a short week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites cover at just a 42.6% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football and the fact that the Buccaneers will face a tough opponent next week hurts their chances of covering this week even more, as favorites of more than a touchdown cover at just a 43.6% rate before facing an opponent whose winning percentage will be 40% higher than their current opponent, which could easily be the case here. 

The Buccaneers will likely be very focused to start this game after being embarrassed last week, but they may take their foot off the gas with a big lead in the second half, which could allow a Carolina backdoor cover, even if the Buccaneers otherwise dominate this game. That’s not enough for me to take the Panthers with any confidence this week, even getting this many points (somehow the Panthers have covered in just three of their last 20 games and spreads might not have adjusted quite enough yet), but if I had to take a side for pick ‘em purposes, I would side with the Panthers by the slightest of margins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 Carolina Panthers 9

Pick against the spread: Carolina +13

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

The Falcons have been one of the most surprising teams in the league this season. Entering the season clearly in the beginning phases of a rebuild, with one of the least talented rosters in the league on paper, the Falcons have started 3-3 and their performance has been no fluke. Their defense has been mediocre, ranking 24th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but their offense has statistically been one of the best in the league, ranking 5th in both first down rate and schedule adjusted efficiency, and offensive performance tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance.

This week, the Falcons visit a Bengals team that is well above average, despite a 3-3 record, with all three of their losses coming by three points or fewer and a +23 point differential that is 7th best in the NFL, but the Falcons are still about even with the Bengals in overall schedule adjusted efficiency. My roster rankings don’t show the Falcons as favorably, as they’ve significantly overachieved compared to their talent level and are missing talented cornerback Casey Hayward this week, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league through the first few weeks of the season, but the Bengals still only have a 3-point edge in my roster rankings.

The Bengals are at home in this game, but these teams are closer than this 6.5-point line suggests, with my calculated line falling at Cincinnati -4.5. That’s not enough line value for the Falcons to be worth betting, but I would reconsider if this line jumped up to a full touchdown and the Falcons should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The Falcons haven’t lost by more than 6 points all season and, while it wouldn’t surprise me if they suffered their biggest margin of defeat thus far in Cincinnati against a good Bengals team this week, I would expect this to be a relatively close game.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Atlanta Falcons 22

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Normally I like home favorites in non-divisional Thursday games because teams tend to be at a disadvantage when they travel on a short week to face a relatively unfamiliar opponent, unless they happen to be the significantly better team. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 63.2% rate on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest. However, in this game, we are getting significant value with the visiting Saints, which cancels out the trend that works in the Cardinals’ favor.

Both of these teams are 2-4 and have faced comparable competition, but the Saints have been the noticeably better team, having the slight edge in point differential (-17 vs. -28), despite faring significantly worse in the turnover battle, with the Cardinals at +2 and the Saints at -7. Turnovers are not nearly as predictive week-to-week as yards and first downs and, in terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards per play, the Saints are at -1.83, while the Cardinals are nearly three points worse at -4.72. 

The Saints aren’t healthy, missing a pair of starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, among less important injuries, but the Cardinals are far from healthy either. Top receiver DeAndre Hopkins returns from a 6-game suspension this week, but he re-joins an offense that just lost Marquise Brown, their top receiver in Hopkins absence, as well as a pair of key starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson. 

With Hudson out and Pugh and Brown going down mid-game, it’s no surprise the Cardinals had by far their worst offensive performance of the season last week against the Seahawks. Hopkins’ return this week will help, but the Saints also have a much tougher defense than the Seahawks. With all of the injuries factored in, my roster rankings have the Saints about three points better than the Cardinals, which is in line with the difference between these two teams in overall efficiency.

The Cardinals should have extra homefield advantage on a short week, but this line favors the Cardinals by 2.5, meaning that their homefield advantage would have to be equal to 5.5 points for this line to be appropriate, given the 3-point gap between these two teams. Even on a short week, that homefield advantage is excessive, so the Saints should be the right side in this one. I would need this line to move to a full field goal for the Saints to be worth betting, but if that happens, they would be bettable even in a bad spot. The money line is a good value as well, as the Saints should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +2.5

Confidence: Low

2022 Week 6 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

ATL +4.5 vs. SF

High Confidence Picks

MIN -3 @ MIA

Medium Confidence Picks

SEA +2.5 vs. ARZ

NO +3 vs. CIN

PHI -6.5 vs. DAL

Low Confidence Picks

KC +2.5 vs. BUF

CLE -2.5 vs. NE

No Confidence Picks

WAS +1 @ CHI

NYJ +7.5 @ GB

JAX +2 @ IND

DEN +4.5 @ LAC

TB -9.5 @ PIT

CAR +10 @ LAR

BAL -5.5 @ NYG

Upset Picks

ATL +185 vs. SF

SEA +115 vs. ARZ

KC +125 vs. BUF

NO +130 vs. CIN

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)

Both of these teams have gotten off to disappointing starts. Both teams made significant additions this off-season and, as a result, were expected to take a step forward and become playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders this season, after numerous consecutive years without a playoff appearance, but, instead, the Chargers rank 27th in schedule adjusted efficiency and the Broncos rank 31st. Both teams are more talented than that suggests on paper and, as a result, both will likely play better going forward, but both teams have also been hampered by injuries in a significant way.

For the Chargers, center Corey Linsley and cornerback JC Jackson returned a few weeks ago, but wide receiver Keenan Allen remains out at least another week, as he has been since getting hurt week 1, while left tackle Rashawn Slater and edge defender Joey Bosa remain out indefinitely. Allen, Slater, and Bosa are among their most important players, so those absences are very significant. For the Broncos, safety Justin Simmons is expected to return this week, but left tackle Garett Bolles, running back Javonte Williams, edge defender Randy Gregory, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell remain out, all significant absences.

The Chargers have the three point edge in my roster rankings, but this line is pretty high at 4.5, especially when you consider the lack of homefield advantage the Chargers have had in recent years since moving to Los Angeles, going 16-25 ATS, as a result of having to constantly play in front of crowds who mostly favor the road team. That especially happens in divisional matchups like this where road fans don’t have far to travel, so I expect this crowd to be filled with Broncos fans. There’s not enough here for the Broncos to be worth betting confidently, but, with minimal homefield advantage factored in for the Chargers, my calculated line is Chargers -3.5, so we’re getting at least some line value with the visitor. This is a no confidence pick, but the Broncos should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 20

Pick against the spread: Denver +4.5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)

The Jaguars have a significantly better point differential than the Colts (+31 vs. -25) and won the first matchup between these two teams earlier this season in convincing fashion (24-0), but a lot of the gap between these two teams has been because of turnovers, which are not that predictive week-to-week. On the season, the Colts are -6 in turnover margin, as opposed to +1 for the Jaguars, and the Jaguars won the turnover battle in the first matchup by 3. That game was also in Jacksonville and the Colts were missing their two best wide receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, who will be active for this rematch in Indianapolis.

My roster rankings have these two teams about even, which unfortunately doesn’t give us any line value, with the Colts being favored by 2 points at home, about where my calculated line would be. I am taking the Colts for pick ‘em purposes for now, just because I think the home team winning by a field goal is the most likely outcome, but there is some uncertainty over the status of Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor, who missed last week and was limited in practice this week. I am expecting him to play, but, if he doesn’t, I would change this pick to the Jaguars, for a no confidence pick either way.

Update: Taylor is out, so I am changing to a no confidence pick on the Jaguars instead.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (4-1)

The Giants are a surprising 4-1, but they haven’t played as well as that suggests, as they have had one of the easiest schedules in the league and haven’t won any games by more than one score. They got their best win of the season last week against the Packers in London, but, even with that taken into account, the Giants rank just 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points below average. That lines up with my roster rankings, which have the Giants 2.5 points below average.

Unfortunately, the public and odds makers seem to still understand that the Giants aren’t as good as their record, with this line favoring the Ravens on the road by 5.5 points. The Ravens are 3-2, but both of their losses came on last second scores and their point differential is tied for 6th best in the NFL. They’re also 5.5 points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency and 6.5 points above average in my roster rankings. There isn’t enough here for me to take them as 5.5 point road favorites with any confidence against a competitive Giants team, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 26 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: None