2019 NFL Picks

Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) at Chicago Bears (3-3)

I’ve picked against the Chargers every week this season except their blowout win against the hapless Dolphins because I’ve thought the Chargers, who won 12 games last season, were overrated by a public that didn’t understand the value of the players this team has been missing with injury, including stud safety Derwin James, their top-2 offensive linemen Russell Okung and Mike Pouncey, and talented starting edge defender Melvin Ingram. So far, it’s been a good strategy because I am 7-0 ATS picking Chargers games this season, but I think we’re now getting value with the Chargers. 

Now 2-5 a year after going 12-4, the Chargers have been better than their record has suggested, as their five losses have all come by seven points or fewer. They’ve also had bad turnover luck, with a league worst 23.81% fumble recovery rate leading to a -4 turnover margin that is the 5th worst in the NFL. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and in terms of first down rate differential the Chargers actually rank 11th at +2.21%. They’re also getting back some of the aforementioned injured players, as both Melvin Ingram and Russell Okung are expected to play, though the latter is expected to be on a snap count in his season debut. 

Despite that, the Chargers are the biggest underdogs they’ve been all season this week and it comes against a Bears team that also hasn’t been nearly as good as they were a year ago when they went 12-4. The public might not have fully caught on because the Bears’ 3-3 record isn’t horrible, but a year removed from finishing 1st in first down rate differential at +6.64%, the Bears rank just 26th at -3.51% this season. 

Their defense is still strong, ranking 9th in first down rate allowed, but without free agent losses Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan, departed ex-defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and injured defensive end Akiem Hicks, they are merely good defensively this year, as opposed to last year’s dominant unit. On offense, they rank 28th in first down rate, as Mitch Trubisky has seemingly regressed behind an offensive line that has definitely regressed and none of their skill position players outside of Allen Robinson can get anything going. Add in a tougher schedule after playing one of the easiest in the league last season and it’s not a surprise that the Bears have been underwhelming this season. 

Earlier this week I locked in this line at Chargers +4.5 because I thought it would continue to fall, after being +6 on the early line last week and opening at +5 this week. It did fall slightly to +4, but the Chargers had top wide receiver Keenan Allen suffer an injury during the week and he’s expected to be on a snap count if he plays at all. That doesn’t scare me off from taking the Chargers at +4.5 or +4, as I still have the Chargers slightly higher than the Bears in my roster rankings, but I’m no longer considering this as my Pick of the Week. If this game were in Los Angeles, I’d probably pick the Bears because the Chargers have no homefield advantage there (6-12-1 ATS since moving in 2017), but they are 13-6-2 ATS on the road over that time period. Even if the Chargers are unable to pull off the upset in Chicago, this should be another close game for a Chargers team that has been competitive in every game this season. 

Chicago Bears 20 Los Angeles Chargers 19

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)

The Jets got embarrassed at home by the Patriots and their defense last week, managing just a 22.64% first down rate in a 33-0 shutout loss, but that wasn’t really a surprise. The Jets and their offense looked good against the Cowboys the previous week in Sam Darnold’s return from illness, but the Patriots have a juggernaut defense (23.10% first down rate allowed) that can eat young quarterbacks alive and the Jets have issues on offense far beyond the quarterback position. 

Outside of running back Le’Veon Bell, the Jets may not have a single above average starter on their entire offense and running back is not one of the more valuable positions. They had a 42.59% first down rate against the Cowboys, but just a 27.27% first down rate in Darnold’s first start of the season at home against the Bills before his illness and a pathetic 18.01% first down rate in 3 games in his absence. A good quarterback can mask a lot of other flaws, but Darnold is still young and has yet to consistently resemble the player he was against the Cowboys, especially against tougher defenses.

Fortunately, Darnold gets a much easier matchup this week in Jacksonville against a Jaguars defense that is not close to what it was in 2017. With Jalen Ramsey gone and Marcell Dareus on injured reserve, the Jaguars have just four of their top-14 in snaps played remaining from that dominant 2017 defense and rank 14th in first down rate allowed at 35.67%. Offensively, as much as sixth round rookie Gardner Minshew has gotten hype, they rank just 26th in first round rate at 32.43% and Minshew seems to be regressing weekly. 

The Jaguars are also in a much worse spot than the Jets this week. While the Jets should be fully focused with a trip to Miami on deck, the Jaguars have a much bigger game next week in London against the division leading Texans. Favorites are just 68-30 ATS since 2016 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Earlier this week I thought I would be making a big play on the Jets at +6, with the line shifting from +4 on the early line as a result of the Jets’ blowout loss, but I don’t like them nearly as much without linebacker CJ Mosley, who is out with injury. His absence only shifted this line up to 6.5 and I would need a full touchdown to bet the Jets without him. They’re still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but unless the line shifts to 7 this is a low confidence pick.

Sunday Update: +7 has showed up Sunday morning, so I am putting a small bet on the Jets. This line is too high for an underwhelming Jaguars team that is in a bad spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Medium

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (1-6) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

This line is pretty big at Minnesota -16, but it’s completely understandable, as this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league. The Vikings rank 4th in first down rate differential at +6.23% and are the only team in the league in the top-10 in both first down rate and first down rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Redskins rank 30th at -7.51%, only ahead of the Jets, who have been without their quarterback for most of the season, and the Dolphins, who are arguably the worst team of all-time and have given the Redskins their only win. 

This matchup should be even more lopsided on a short week in Minnesota, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to go on the road on a short week and compete on the road against a non-divisional foe. Teams are just 16-36 ATS all-time as non-divisional road underdogs on Thursday Night Football, including 1-10 ATS as underdogs of 10+. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet because we’re not really getting any line value with the Vikings, especially with Adam Thielen questionable, but I have no problem laying this many points in this situation, as history suggests this is very likely to be a blowout.

I am also locking in one game early before the line moves. I will have a full write-up this weekend.

LAC +4.5 @ CHI

Minnesota Vikings 31 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -16

Confidence: Medium

2019 Week 7 NFL Picks

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2019 Pick Results

Pick of the Week

GB -4.5 vs. OAK

High Confidence Picks

DEN +3.5 vs. KC

Medium Confidence Picks

DAL -2.5 vs. PHI

TEN -2 vs. LAC

HOU +1 @ IND

ATL +3 vs. LAR

NO +4 @ CHI

Low Confidence Picks

NE -10 @ NYJ

CIN +4 vs. JAX

MIN -2 @ DET

No Confidence Picks

SEA -3 vs. BAL

WAS +10 vs. SF

BUF -17 vs. MIA

ARZ +3.5 @ NYG

Upset Picks

NO +170 vs. CHI

ATL +140 vs. LAR

DEN +150 vs. KC

New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-0) at New York Jets (1-4)

It’s tough to know what to make of the Jets. Week 1, they lost at home to the Bills, despite winning the turnover battle by 3, posting a -12.41% first down rate in the process. Then they lost quarterback Sam Darnold and top defensive player CJ Mosley for and had a -14.45% first down rate over 3 games. Last week, however, the Jets got Darnold back and pulled the surprising upset against a Cowboys team that had won the first down rate battle in each of their first 5 games. Even though they only won that game by 2, the Jets actually won the first down rate battle by 5.26%, so it was an impressive showing in Darnold’s return. 

This week, the Jets could be getting CJ Mosley back, but even if he does return they are far from 100%. They will be without their left side of the offensive line, with both Kelvin Beachum and Kelechi Osemele injured, while center Ryan Kalil and right guard Brian Winters are both questionable after being limited in practice on Friday. Also questionable after being limited in practice are wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, cornerback Darryl Roberts, and nose tackle Steve McLendon, while defensive end Henry Anderson, tight end Chris Herndon, and middle linebacker Neville Hewitt are all doubtful.

The Jets also host a tough Patriots team that won the first down rate battle against them by 21.48% in their meeting in New England a few weeks ago. Being at home and having Darnold and Mosley back will definitely help, but with everyone else the Jets are missing, they could still have trouble keeping this game close. The Patriots haven’t faced a tough schedule, but they’ve won all 6 games by an average of 23.7 points per game and lead the league with a very impressive +13.11% first down rate differential. I actually have this line calculated at New England -14, but I wouldn’t bet on the Patriots unless this line falls below 10 because there’s a lot of uncertainty with the Jets and because the Jets could give a big effort at home on Monday Night and keep this closer than expected.

New England Patriots 23 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: New England -10

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Detroit Lions (2-2-1)

The Lions have arguably had the most exciting season of any team in the league. All 5 games they’ve played have been decided by 4 points or fewer and the game that was decided by 4 points was decided on a last second touchdown. If a few things had gone differently, they could be 5-0 right now, but they could also be 0-5, with both wins coming by exactly a field goal, including one game in which they had a -6.23% first down rate differential, but pulled ahead due to a kickoff return. Their loss in Green Bay last week was controversial because of some bad calls, but they could have still lost that game even without those calls, despite getting gifted a trio of turnovers. Turnover margin tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and they lost the first down rate battle convincingly (-9.33%). Their 2-2-1 record is fitting, as this more or less an average team. 

The Vikings, meanwhile, look to be emerging as a contender. Quarterback Kirk Cousins isn’t having a bad year overall all things considered and if he’s the weak point of this team this team is in pretty good shape. Arguably the most well-rounded team in the league, the Vikings are the only team to rank in the top-10 in both first down rate and first down rate allowed. Overall, they rank 5th in first down rate differential +5.45% and are in 4th in my roster rankings, with no significant injuries to speak of. There are some question marks on their offensive line, but they get right guard Josh Kline back from injury this week and they held their own without him against a tough Philadelphia front last week. I have this line calculated at Minnesota -3, so while we’re not getting much line value with the Vikings at -2, they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1) at New York Giants (2-4)

This is one of the tougher games of the week to predict. This line favoring the Giants by a field goal at home suggests these two teams are about even and that’s about right. Both the Giants and Cardinals have gotten off to less than stellar starts, with just two wins each against the Buccaneers/Redskins and Bengals/Falcons respectively, but both teams are getting better going forward. The Cardinals are getting top cornerback Patrick Peterson back from a six-game suspension, while the Giants are getting their top two offensive playmakers Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley back from 1-game and 3-game absences respectively. I’m taking the Giants because this is an early game on the East Coast and the Giants are on longer rest, but this is close to a coin flip and a push might be the most likely result.

Final Update: This line has shifted to 3.5 for some reason, so I’m switching this pick to Arizona. This is still a no confidence pick.

New York Giants 26 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)

A lot of teams are dealing with tough injury situations, but the Bengals might have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL. Already missing left tackle Cordy Glenn and #1 wide receiver AJ Green to begin the season, the Bengals are also without wide receiver John Ross, backup left tackle Andre Smith, right guard John Miller, their top two edge rushers Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson, and starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson. With all of their absences, they are the worst team in the league outside of the Dolphins. 

However, I still think we’re getting some line value with them as 4-point home underdogs against the Jaguars. Ever since Minshew Mania went to the next level during the Jaguars’ week 3 victory over the Titans on Thursday Night Football, I have thought the Jaguars are overrated. Even with Gardner Minshew outperforming expectations, the Jaguars still rank just 24th in first down rate differential and he seems to be falling back to earth in recent weeks. The Jaguars rank just 26th in my roster rankings, so they shouldn’t be favored by this many points over anyone except the Dolphins. I have this line calculated at Jacksonville -2, so we’re getting a decent amount of line value with the Bengals, even as banged up as they are. I wouldn’t recommend betting on them though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +4

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)

At 5-1, some are talking about the Seahawks as one of the top teams in the league, but they have a lot of flaws on their roster and are lucky to be 5-1, with 4 of their 5 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level, which masks some of their flaws, but even with him playing as well as he’s playing, the Seahawks still rank just 9th in first down rate differential at +2.34%, despite a relatively easy schedule that has included the Bengals, Steelers, and Cardinals. The Seahawks could still go to 6-1 this week though because they’re at home facing a Ravens team that is also not as good as its record. 

Three of the Ravens’ four wins have come by 6 points or fewer, with the only exception being their blowout of the Dolphins. Those wins have also come against the Cardinals, Steelers, and Bengals and the Ravens struggled to put all three teams away. The Ravens get a boost on defense this week with cornerback Marcus Peters coming over from the Rams in a trade, but the Seahawks also add a key player, with defensive tackle Jarran Reed returning from suspension. This line suggests these two teams are about even, which is about right, but I’m taking the Seahawks because the NFC has had a big advantage over the AFC this year (19-10). A push may be the most likely result though.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Baltimore Ravens 27

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Washington Redskins (1-5)

The 49ers are just one of two undefeated teams left, along with the New England Patriots. The Patriots have the edge in average margin of victory (23.7 vs. 16.6), but that’s largely due to the Patriots having the significant edge in turnover margin (+9 vs. +2), which tends to be very inconsistent week-to-week. In terms of first down rate differential, the Patriots have only a slight edge at +13.11% vs. +11.44% and the 49ers have faced a tougher schedule, so there’s a case to be made that the 49ers have been the best team in the league thus far. 

On the road this week against a Redskins team whose only win came by 1 against the league worst Dolphins, the 49ers are favored by 10 points, which is about right. I am actually going to take the Redskins against the spread for pick ‘em purposes because this could be a let down spot for the 49ers, on the road against a bad team, off of back-to-back big wins over the Browns and Rams, with a game against the 4-2 Panthers on deck. The 49ers could still cover this spread even if they don’t play their best game though, so this is one of my lowest confidence picks.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: None