Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs re-sign MLB Josh Mauga

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Josh Mauga was a 2009 undrafted free agent who played 235 snaps from 2009-2013 and was out of the league entirely in 2013, but he ended up making the Chiefs’ 53 man roster and starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. Mauga predictably struggled through, grading out 54th out of 60 eligible. Johnson will be back in 2015, but Mauga could still have a role for the Chiefs as the starting middle linebacker next to Johnson as James-Michael Johnson struggled even more than Mauga did last season.

If history is any indication, that could be a two-down role next to Derrick Johnson in 2015, though the Chiefs’ potential lack of safety depth might prevent them from using 3 safeties inside of 2 linebackers in sub packages like they like to do. Mauga’s new deal pays him 8 million over 3 years. It’s not an egregious overpayment or anything, especially for a cap strapped team, and it fits his likely 2015 role, but Mauga wasn’t worth too much more than the minimum, given his history and his 2014 play.

Grade: C

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Kansas City Chiefs 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Wide Receiver

Everyone knows by now that no Chief wide receiver caught a touchdown this season, but it wasn’t just that they were being kept out of the end zone. Chief wide receivers combined for just 129 catches for 1588 yards. For comparison, Antonio Brown had 129 catches for 1698 yards by himself and also scored 13 times. Part of their wide receiver issues have to do with Alex Smith’s playing style and his hesitance to throw downfield outside the numbers, but there’s no denying this is the worst wide receiving group in the NFL. Dwayne Bowe was the best of the bunch, catching 60 passes for 754 yards, but he could be an off-season cap casualty. The Chiefs can save 5 million on the cap by cutting him and they need all the financial flexibility they can get to re-sign Justin Houston. Even if Bowe sticks around, wide receiver is a massive need. There might not be a single team that needs anything more than the Chiefs need receivers.

Guard

The Chiefs’ guard play was horrendous in 2014. Zach Fulton and Mike McGlynn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th and 78th ranked guard respectively out of 78 eligible last season. Fulton was just a 6th round rookie so he could be better in 2015, but McGlynn is a tried and failed veteran who has always struggled as a starter. They need at least one new starter at the position this off-season, if not two. Fulton fell to the 6th round in that year’s draft for a reason, so he could easily never become even an average starter in the NFL.

Offensive Tackle

Things weren’t much better at offensive tackle for the Chiefs last season. Eric Fisher was the 1st overall pick in 2013 and he’s largely been a bust in the first two seasons of his career. In 2013 at right tackle, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible and in 2014, at left tackle, he graded out 72nd out of 84 eligible. It’s too soon to give up on him now and he’ll be back as a starter in 2015, but they need insurance for him and help at the right tackle position. Ryan Harris, a mediocre starting right tackle, is a free agent going into his age 30 season.

Cornerback

Sean Smith did a fantastic job as the Chiefs’ #1 cornerback this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked cornerback, but Ron Parker and Chris Owens, who were #2 and #3 in terms of snaps played last season at cornerback for the Chiefs, are both free agents this off-season. Phillip Gaines, a 2014 3rd round pick, will have a bigger role in 2015, but they’ll need to add depth at the position if Parker and Owens don’t return. Even if Parker does return, it could be as a full-time safety, as that’s also a position of need for the Chiefs.

Safety

Obviously I hope for the best for Eric Berry, but, as a result of his cancer diagnosis, his career is very much in danger. The Chiefs will need to make plans for 2015 as if he won’t be available. Husain Adbullah will be back as a starter in 2015 as he did a solid job, but Ron Parker, a cornerback/safety hybrid, is a free agent, as is Kurt Coleman. The Chiefs like to have 3 good safeties anyway because they like to have one play around the line of scrimmage instead of a 2nd linebacker in obvious passing situations and right now they only have one.

Middle Linebacker

Derrick Johnson went down for the season with a torn Achilles week 1 and the Chiefs struggled at middle linebacker in his absence. Josh Mauga and James-Michael Johnson graded out 54th and 50th respectively out of 60 eligible last season. Derrick Johnson will be back in 2015, but he’ll be in his age 33 season coming off of a serious injury. Best case scenario, Johnson comes back 100% in 2015 and Mauga does better in the two-down role next to him (the Chiefs like to play a 3rd safety around the line of scrimmage instead of a 2nd linebacker in sub packages), but that’s banking on Johnson’s health and requires the Chiefs to maintain safety depth, which is going to be tough, as I just mentioned. They should add someone else to the mix this off-season.

Center

Center Rodney Hudson was the only Chief offensive lineman to play a snap last season and grade out above average. He did a very good job, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked center, but he’ll be a free agent this off-season. The Chiefs aren’t in a great cap situation and already need to re-sign Justin Houston so Hudson could easily be elsewhere in 2015. If he is, the Chiefs will need a replacement because they don’t have an internal one.

Key Free Agents

OLB Justin Houston

If Justin Houston were to hit the open market, he’d be the top free agent available regardless of who else hits the open market. Needless to say, the Chiefs won’t let that happen as they have the franchise tag available and ready to use. If it wasn’t for JJ Watt’s existence, everyone would be talking about how good Houston has been, not just last season, when he came within a sack of the all-time single season record, and but the last 3 seasons. Houston, a 2011 3rd round pick, started the final 6 games of his rookie year and ended up grading out 13th at his position. He turned that into a starting job in 2012 and never looked back, grading out 4th at his position in 2012 and then 1st in each of the last 2 seasons. He’s the top edge rusher in the NFL, strong against the run, and versatile enough to drop in coverage if you need him. Only going into his age 26 season, Houston will get a boatload of money whenever he’s signed to a long-term deal.

C Rodney Hudson

Rodney Hudson, a 2011 2nd round pick, has been a starter for the Chiefs at center over the past 3 seasons and he’s been very good. He only made 3 starts in his first year as a center in 2012, but he graded out above average then and he’s done that as well over the past 2 seasons, while making all 32 starts. He graded out 17th in 2013 and then had the best season of his career in 2014 at the perfect time in his contract year, as he graded out 3rd at his position. One of the better centers in the game, Hudson will be paid like that this off-season.

OT Ryan Harris

Ryan Harris is a veteran journeyman who has bounced from Denver to Houston to Kansas City, but, from 2008-2014, he graded out above average 4 times, below average twice, and didn’t play a snap in 2011. He graded out below average in 2014, his first full season as a starter since 2009, but only barely. He’s going into his age 30 season, but he’s not completely over the hill yet so he could be brought back as a starter or end up with a starting job elsewhere.

S Ron Parker

Ron Parker played a combined 122 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013, after going undrafted in 2011, but he played 1037 snaps last season at cornerback and safety. He struggled, grading out below average and he shouldn’t be anything more than a 3rd cornerback or a 3rd safety, but the Chiefs like his versatility and, with depth problems in the secondary outside of Sean Smith and Husain Abdullah, will try to bring him back this off-season.

S Kurt Coleman

Kurt Coleman was a mere 7th round pick by the Eagles in 2010, but he started for them in both 2011 and 2012. However, he graded out well below average in both of those seasons, including 85th out of 88 eligible in 2012. He was limited to 74 snaps as a reserve in 2013 with the Eagles, but he bounced back a little bit in 2014 with the Chiefs, grading out above average on 396 snaps. He’ll get a reserve job somewhere this off-season.

CB Chris Owens

Owens was Pro Football Focus’ 87th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible last season on 500 snaps, though he has been better in the past, grading out above average in both 2012 and 2013. He’s graded out above average in 3 of 6 seasons since he was drafted in the 3rd round in 2009 (2010 was the other season), though he’s maxed out at 545 snaps. He’s a decent depth cornerback at best.

MLB Josh Mauga

Josh Mauga was an undrafted free agent in 2009 and played just 235 snaps from 2009-2013. He was out of the league entirely in 2013. The Chiefs brought him in last off-season and he ended up starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. His tackle numbers (103) looked nice, but he graded out 54th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers. He’s a reserve at best going forward.

G Jeff Linkenbach

Jeff Linkenbach has graded out below average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league since going undrafted in 2010. He’s made 36 starts in 5 seasons in the league and struggled mightily in his only season as a full-time starter, grading out 70th out of 76 eligible offensive tackles in 2011. He’s versatile, but he’s a 6th offensive lineman at best and a pretty poor one at that. He won’t draw a lot of interest this off-season.

G Mike McGlynn

Mike McGlynn has been arguably the worst starting guard in the NFL over the past 3 seasons, grading out dead last at his position in 2012, 74th out of 81 eligible in 2013, and then dead last again in 2014. He was only a starter for the Chiefs in 2014 out of necessity and he won’t be a starter in the NFL in 2015. I’m not even sure he should be in the league next year, going into his age 30 season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

WR Donnie Avery

As bad as the Chiefs were at wide receiver this season, Donnie Avery barely saw any playing time, playing just 233 snaps and grading out below average. There’s a reason for that, as he was horrible in 2012 and 2013 both as a starter. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 100th ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible in 2012 back when he was with the Colts and 105th out of 111 eligible in 2013 in his first season with the Chiefs. The Chiefs weirdly gave him a 3-year, 8.55 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago even though he was horrible in 2012, but they can get out of his non-guaranteed 3.4 million dollar salary for 2015 by cutting him this off-season and they would save that entire amount on the cap. This won’t be a tough decision for them.

MLB Joe Mays

As I mentioned earlier, the Chiefs had serious issues at middle linebacker this season. In spite of that, Joe Mays only played 122 snaps and couldn’t crack the starting lineup. The career journeyman is going into his age 30 season and isn’t worth his non-guaranteed 2.7 million dollar salary for 2015. The cap strapped Chiefs will save that entire amount on the cap immediately by letting him go this off-season, so it’s a no brainer.

S Eric Berry

Eric Berry is a solid starter when healthy, but he’s not healthy right now and not in terms of injuries. Berry is battling lymphoma, which he was diagnosed with late in the season. His career is very much in doubt and, as sad it is, the Chiefs will have to operate this off-season as if Berry won’t be able to play in 2015. That means cutting Berry to get out of his 5.455 million dollar non-guaranteed salary. The Chiefs can save that entire amount on the cap by letting him go. They can still bring him back on a minimum deal to keep him around, but it’s financially irresponsible to keep him on his current salary when they’re already backed up against the cap and need to bring back Justin Houston and Rodney Hudson.

WR Dwayne Bowe

From 2007-2012, Dwayne Bowe caught 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. Alex Smith over the past two seasons has been easily the best quarterback he’s had in his career, but Bowe has put up 57/673/5 and 60/754/0 slash lines in 2013 and 2014 respectively, since the Chiefs signed him to a 5-year, 56 million dollar deal. Fortunately for the Chiefs, Bowe was suspended 1 game for a marijuana arrest in 2014, which voided any guaranteed money he had for 2015. The Chiefs can save 11 million in cash and 5 million in cap space by letting Bowe go now and he’d be off their cap completely for 2016. As bad as the situation is at wide receiver, the Chiefs need the financial flexibility that cutting Bowe would help give them.

TE Anthony Fasano

Anthony Fasano played 678 snaps in 2014 for the Chiefs at tight end, but he struggled mightily, grading out 61st out of 67 eligible. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked tight end on 688 snaps. The Chiefs should give Kelce, a 2013 3rd round pick, a bigger role in his 3rd year in the league in 2015 at the expense of Fasano. Fasano is going into his age 31 season and isn’t worth his non-guaranteed 3.1 million dollar salary for 2015. The Chiefs would save 1.959 million on the cap immediately by cutting him.

OLB Tamba Hali

Tamba Hali has graded out above average in every season since 2009, since switching to 3-4 outside linebacker, but he still might not be back in 2015. Hali was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, which is good, but it’s the 2nd worst he’s ranked out over the past 6 seasons, which concerning considering he’s going into his age 32 season. The Chiefs can save 9 million in cash and on the cap by letting him go this off-season and they have a readymade internal replacement in Dee Ford, their 2014 1st round pick, who was drafted with this exact situation in mind. That 9 million in cap space will go a long way towards keeping Justin Houston around for the future and he’s the younger and better player.

DE Mike DeVito

From 2010-2013, Mike DeVito was one of just two 3-4 defensive ends to grade out in the top-10 at that position on Pro Football Focus in every season and he did it despite playing about half the snaps in all 4 of those seasons. He doesn’t get much pass rush, but he graded out 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 4th in run stopping grade in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. However, DeVito missed all of 2014 with a torn Achilles (except 28 snaps in the opener) and the Chiefs essentially replaced him by giving Allen Bailey a long-term extension this season. The Chiefs now have Bailey and Vance Walker with long-term deals at the 3-4 defensive end position, along with DeVito. Given their cap situation and their need to re-sign Houston and Hudson, they might not want to give DeVito his non-guaranteed 4 million dollar salary. As good as he is at what he does, he’s a two-down player coming off of a significant injury going into his age 31 season. The Chiefs would save the full 4 million on the cap immediately by cutting him this off-season.

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (9-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)

The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego earlier this season, but that’s because the Chargers were in a terrible spot (the worst spot I’ve seen all since), with a Thursday Night road game in Denver on deck, while the Chiefs only had a home game against St. Louis on deck. This time, the Chargers are the one in the good spot. Not only are they generally very good in December (going 26-5 straight up and 21-10 ATS in weeks 14-17 since 2007), but they’re in their 2nd of two road games, which is usually a good spot.

Teams are 84-61 ATS as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs since 2002, including 53-38 ATS when it’s a team’s 2nd of two scheduled road games. On top of that, teams are 17-9 ATS since 1989 when that road win as underdogs came in overtime, including 11-5 ATS in the 2nd of two scheduled road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game.

Even before you take into account that the Chargers are in a much better spot in this game than they were the first time around, the Chargers are in a great revenge spot. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (40-42) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

The reason I’m not that confident in San Diego is because rate of moving the chains differential suggests the Chiefs are the better team, which isn’t what this line suggesting, with the Chiefs as 2.5 point favorites. The Chiefs rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.10% rate, as opposed to 70.56% for their opponents, a differential of 3.54%. Meanwhile, the Chargers rank 12th, moving the chains at a 74.19% rate, as opposed to 73.32% for their opponents, a differential of 0.87%. I wish this line was still at a field goal, as it was last week. I’m still going with the Chargers, but the line would have to be at least 3 points for me to put any money on it and I might not even do so if that were the case.

Update: Alex Smith has been surprisingly ruled out of this one, after doctors discovered that he suffered a lacerated spleen during last week’s loss to the Steelers. The line has moved from San Diego +3 or +2.5 to +1 as a result. Obviously I wish Smith the best, but this is good news from a gambling perspective for two reasons. One, the Chargers are still underdogs here so those aforementioned two trends still apply. Two, the line really didn’t move a ton, as two points doesn’t really do justice for the job that Alex Smith has done this season.

Smith has completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 254 yards and a touchdown on 49 attempts. His quarterback rating of 93.4 is 14th in the NFL and Pro Football Focus has him as their 16th ranked quarterback. He’s led Kansas City’s offense to a 74.10% rate of moving the chains that ranks 13th in the NFL, despite a poor offensive line, no threats at wide receiver, and no offensive playmakers outside of under-utilized tight end Travis Kelce and running back Jamaal Charles. Those two are obviously still healthy and going to play in this one, but Chase Daniel is a steep dropdown from Smith at quarterback, especially since he’s barely practiced this week.

Daniel played reasonably well in a meaningless week 17 game against the Chargers last season, completing 21 of 30 for 200 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions, but he’s still an unproven former undrafted free agent. The Chargers have a better defense this season and will be much better prepared for Daniel this time around, especially since Daniel has minimal practice experience with the offensive starters, wasn’t expecting to start this week, and might not be equipped to deal with the pressure of a must-win game. The line value that originally made me hesitant to take San Diego is gone, so, as long as the Chargers are still underdogs in this one, I have confidence taking them.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: San Diego +1

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Steelers, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers have the better offense, moving the chains at a 78.23% rate, but allow opponents to move the chains at a 73.81% rate, a differential of 4.42%. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggle, relatively, offensively, moving the chains at a 73.98% rate, but only allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.76% rate, a differential of 4.21%.

The Chiefs seem to be in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation in which teams are 124-94 ATS since 2002, but it’s hard to classify this as a good spot, considering they have an equally big game next week against San Diego. Even though both of these teams are will be home favorites next week, neither as an easy game as the Chiefs host the Chargers and the Steelers host the Bengals in game that will have significant implications for the playoff race. Both of these two teams are essentially in the same spot with both teams controlling their own destiny to make the playoffs, if they win each of the next two games. Between that and how similar they’ve played on the field, this game is borderline impossible to call, but I’m going with the Chiefs and fading a slight public lean.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 21

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +3

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)

The Raiders pulled the improbable upset over the 49ers last week as 8 point home underdogs and they did so in convincing fashion, but we’re still getting line value with the Chiefs as 10 only point home favorites here. The Raiders still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 63.74% rate, as opposed to 73.35% for their opponents, a differential of -9.61%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 7th, moving the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%.

I’m not confident in the Chiefs though, as they aren’t in a great spot either. They have a much tougher game in Pittsburgh next week which could serve as a playoff tiebreaker. Teams are just 99-114 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. On top of that, this is just the 17th time that a team has been favored by double digits off of 3 straight losses in the past 25 years. Only three teams have covered in that spot over that time period, going 3-12-1 ATS. I’m going with the Chiefs to be the 4th, but I’m not confident at all.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -10

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3)

The wheels are starting to fall off for the Arizona Cardinals. They have lost 2 straight by double digits in Seattle and Atlanta and they have one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters. I’ve said all season that this team had not been playing as well as their record and it’s finally starting to catch up with them. They’ve been way too reliant on a +10 turnover margin this season, powered by a 61.90% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +4 return touchdown margin.

All the advanced metrics have them as not being nearly as good as their record, even now that they’ve lost 2 in a row. They rank just 18th in the NFL in DVOA. In rate of moving the chains, they rank 12th, moving them at a 71.79% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of 2.16%. Their offense has been even worse since Carson Palmer went down, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.18% rate this season in games that Palmer doesn’t start, including the last 3. Now they’ve lost Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time defensively. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank 7th, moving the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 71.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.69%. The Cardinals don’t deserve to be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.

Speaking of the Cardinals being favored by a point, teams are 39-61 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals might not be completely focused for this non-conference game with a divisional game against the Rams up in 4 days. The Cardinals are also projected to be underdogs in that game, which opens up another bad spot for them as non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs.

On the flipside, the Chiefs host the Raiders up next, so all their focus will be on this game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 123-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I wish we were getting more than a point with the Chiefs, but they should be the right side.

There are two reasons why the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play here. For one, the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years, going 28-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. Two, teams that lose back-to-back road games are 44-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. However, I don’t think the Cardinals are undervalued here and they don’t deserve to be home favorites. The Chiefs are the better team in the better spot and I have a reasonable amount in confidence in their ability to pull the upset.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense to do so here. Yes, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week, but that doesn’t completely erase everything they’ve accomplished this season and all the times they proved they were a legitimate contender. The Broncos lost to the Rams two weeks ago and that didn’t erase all their accomplishments either. Fluky things happen in the NFL and the Chiefs were undoubtedly caught off guard last week after a win over the Seahawks with a game against the Broncos on deck. Teams are actually 57-41 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites, including 5-1 ATS off of a loss as road favorites of a touchdown or more.

Prior to last week, the Chiefs beat the Seahawks, as I mentioned. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. On the season, the Chiefs still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.35% rate, as opposed to 71.47% for their opponents, a differential of 4.87%.

The Broncos still lead the league, moving the chains at a 78.80% rate, as opposed to 71.83% for their opponents, a differential of 6.96%, but no one, not even them, deserves to be favored over the Chiefs in Kansas City. The wrong team is favored here. The Broncos haven’t exactly looked good on the road this season anyway, losing in St. Louis, Seattle, and New England and needing a late pick six to cover over the Jets. Their only clean cover on the road was in Oakland. The Chiefs should be the right side. Don’t worry about the Chiefs losing Eric Berry. He hadn’t been playing that well this season and the Chiefs could give 110% this week to honor Berry. I wish Berry the best as he faces a possible lymphoma diagnosis.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10)

The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes sense. In addition to what they did last week, they went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. As long as they aren’t overconfident over last week’s win, they should be able to win fairly easily here.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are terrible, moving the chains at a 62.50% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of -11.80%, easily the worst in the NFL (no one else is worse than -8.51%). They should be way more than touchdown underdogs here at home for Kansas City. Speaking of them being home underdogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot, as teams are 30-59 ATS as divisional home underdogs in night games since 1989.

The only reason I’m not that confident is because the Raiders are in a good spot because they’re winless and on a big losing streak. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Teams are 31-15 ATS since 1989 as underdogs with a record of 0-8 or worse, though only 13-12 as home underdogs. On top of that, underdogs with records of 0-5 or worse are 39-19 ATS off of a loss by a touchdown or less, though again only 15-10 ATS as home underdogs. Also, while the Raiders will be overlooked and embarrassed, they aren’t undervalued because the Chiefs are only touchdown favorites here. The Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)

The public is all over the Seahawks here and most people assume the defending Super Bowl champs will win straight up here in Kansas City. Then why do the odds makers (who always make money in the long run) have them favored here by 1? Well, it’s because the sharps (who also always make money in the long run) are all over the Chiefs. That’s because the Chiefs are the superior team and at home here. The Chiefs rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential at 76.98%, as opposed to 70.34% for their opponents, a differential of 6.64%.

That might sound absurd considering they’re just 6-3, but they have a +66 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank 7th moving the chains at a 76.17% rate, as opposed to 72.28% for their opponents, a differential of 3.89%.

That’s before you even take into account that the Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.68 points per game. This is opposed to a 24-41 record away from home (28-36-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.75 points per game. They’re even worse on the road as road underdogs, going 15-24 ATS in that spot since 2007, including 9-17 ATS as road underdogs off a home game, and 3-12 ATS as road underdogs off a home game and before another home game.

This is only the 2nd time they’ve been road underdogs over the past 2 seasons, but for good reason (the only game was last year’s in San Francisco). They aren’t as good as they were last season (the fact that they’ll be without Bobby Wagner, Brandon Mebane, and possibly Kam Chancellor this week doesn’t help) and Kansas City is very good. Also, while Seattle has Arizona up next (even though it’s a home game, it’s a bigger game for them), the Chiefs have a much easier game in Oakland up next. Teams are 83-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, 53-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 21-7 ATS before being road favorites of a touchdown or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, especially when they’re on an underdog, and it definitely makes sense here. This is my Pick of the Week.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Seattle Seahawks 9

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Both of these two teams are 5-3, but one I think is very underrated and the other is very overrated. The Chiefs are significantly better than their solid record and are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 78.40% rate, as opposed to 71.18% for their opponents, a differential of 7.22%. That might sound absurd considering they’re just 5-3, but they have a +62 point differential. They went into San Diego and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, with those 3 wins coming by a combined 7 points. In one of their two wins by more than a touchdown, a 43-23 win over a terrible Jets team, they had a +6 turnover margin, which is not sustainable at all, as turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. At the same time, teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week.

The Jets actually won the chain game in that game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers. On the season, the Bills rank just 24th in the NFL rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.24% rate, as opposed to 68.32% for their opponents, a differential of -3.08%. This line at just 1.5 in favor of Kansas City seems way too small. However, the Chiefs are in a bad spot with a game against the Seahawks on deck, a big distraction. Teams are 22-40 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Update: The Chiefs are now underdogs, which nullifies that aforementioned trend I was worried about. The Chiefs still aren’t in an ideal spot, but neither are the Bills who have to go to Miami next week. The Chiefs are a significantly better team than the Bills so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 19 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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