Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)

The Eagles are only favored by 6 points here over the Buccaneers this week, after being favored by 8 points in the early line last week. I think that’s too low, as the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th in rate of moving the chains. The Eagles are going to be without quarterback Sam Bradford in this one, but I’m not so sure that Mark Sanchez is much of a downgrade. Sanchez is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL and the Eagles offense has struggled this season, ranking 20th in rate of moving the chains. They’ve been carried by a defense that ranks 6th.

I can’t be confident in the Eagles for two reasons. For one, they’re missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly left tackle Jason Peters with injury, while Tampa Bay is just missing defensive end George Johnson. The second reason is that the Eagles play in Detroit on Thanksgiving in 4 days. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. The Eagles have a strong defense and should be able to cover as 6 point favorites at home here over Tampa Bay, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

This game was really tough because there are conflicting trends on each side. On one hand, the Dolphins are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game.

On the other hand, the Eagles are big home favorites, deserved big home favorites (they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Dolphins) with an easy game on deck, a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which the early line has the as 8.5 point favorites. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

I’m taking the Eagles because they’re in a better injury situation. Rookie middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is out for the season, but they should be able to survive now that Mychal Kendricks, Kiko Alonso, and DeMeco Ryans are all healthy again at middle linebacker. On the offensive side of the ball, talented left tackle Jason Peters makes his return, a big boost on the offensive line. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in their 2nd straight game without key defensive end Cameron Wake, who is out for the season, and right tackle JaWuan James. I’m not confident at all though.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5)

The Eagles are 3 point favorites here in Dallas coming off the bye. Significant road favorites off of a bye tend to do pretty well, as 3+ point road favorites off of the bye are 41-13 ATS since 2002, including 21-5 ATS in a divisional matchup, like this one. However, the Eagles aren’t deserving of being favored by a field goal here. They’re the better team, ranking 11th, as opposed to 20th for the Cowboys, but the difference isn’t enough, considering this line suggests that the Eagles are 6 points better than the Cowboys.

The Eagles aren’t healthy coming out of the bye, missing talented left tackle Jason Peters with a back injury. It’s not all bad on the injury front for the Eagles, as middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is expected to return this week from an extended absence with a knee problem, meaning the Eagles are healthy with the exception of Peters, but Peters will definitely be missed. Matt Tobin will be a significant downgrade.The Cowboys, meanwhile, are only missing Tony Romo.

Obviously, that’s a huge injury still and new quarterback Matt Cassel is a significant downgrade, but the Cowboys are healthy around the quarterback now, which they haven’t been really all season. The offensive line is very good. Their receiving corps is back to full strength, after getting wide receiver Dez Bryant back from injury last week. And their defense has played a lot better in recent weeks since getting defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension. Given that, the Eagles really shouldn’t be field goal favorites here, without Peters, but the public is still all over them. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, because they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

The Cowboys are also in a pair of good spots. For one, they have a relatively easy game in Tampa Bay next week, a game in which they expected to be 1 point road favorites, per the early line. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. Sure, that line is only one and they could end up being underdogs depending on the outcome of this game, but teams are also 75-51 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs since 2002. The Cowboys lost last week against the Seahawks as home underdogs. I’m not confident at all, but I’m going with the Cowboys.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-0)

The Panthers are 5-0 and rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re only favored by 35 points here. That’s reasonable though, considering the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and considering the Eagles are in a great spot, coming off of a 20 point win on Monday Night Football over the Giants last week. That momentum tends to carry over, as teams historically cover at about 65% rate off of a MNF win of 20 of more. The Eagles have major issues on offense, but one of the best defenses in the whole NFL.

The Eagles defense has played well, despite missing middle linebackers Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso for an extended period of time with injury. DeMeco Ryans and rookie Jordan Hicks have played very well their absence. Ryans is expected to be out this week, but Kendricks returns to play opposite Hicks, who is an early defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. The Eagles are also going to be missing wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Riley Cooper in this one, but they’re not playing well, so that doesn’t really hurt much. The Panthers, meanwhile, essentially have no injuries, with stud middle linebacker Luke Kuechly going into his 2nd game back, after missing 3 games with a concussion early in the season. This is one of the toughest games of the week for me to predict, but I’m going to fade a heavy public lean on Carolina and take the underdog, as long as the line is higher than 3.

Carolina Panthers 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Eagles are favored here by 4.5 on Monday Night Football, pretty reasonable when you consider that the Eagles rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 16th. However, the Giants are in such a great spot here, hosting a weakened Cowboys team in New York next week, while the Eagles have to go to Carolina to face a Panther team that is currently undefeated. The Giants will be favorites and the Eagles will be underdogs, the opposite of what we have here. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

The Giants also typically travel well, at least they have since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. They are also 12-5 ATS as divisional road favorites of 3.5+ points over that time period.

The Giants are pretty banged up, which is why this isn’t a higher confidence pick, but they’ve dealt with injuries all season and have been fine (as have the Eagles defensively, without middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso). Left tackle William Beatty, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, and wide receiver Victor Cruz will all miss their 6th straight week to start the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara adds to the injury list, as he’ll be out for a few weeks with a pectoral injury, but top pass rusher defensive end Robert Ayers returns from injury. Star wide receiver Odell Beckham hasn’t practiced all week, but is still expected to play on Monday Night, though he could be slowed after aggravating his nagging hamstring problems. I still like getting the 4.5 points with the Giants a lot.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

Chip Kelly did everything he could to put his stamp on the Eagles this off-season, changing just about everything. They swapped quarterbacks with the Rams, trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. They sent running back LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for middle linebacker Kiko Alonso and added both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews to replace McCoy. They got rid of veteran guards Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans, even though Mathis had a great 2014, and let Jeremy Maclin sign with the Eagles, opting to replace him with 1st round rookie Nelson Agholor. On defense, veteran linebacker Trent Cole was let go, despite a strong 2014, and the Eagles re-signed the younger Brandon Graham to be their primary rush linebacker. Plus, their top-3 cornerbacks, Cary Williams, Bradley Fletcher, and Brandon Boykin are all gone, as is safety Nate Allen. Instead, they’re secondary consists of big free agent acquisition Byron Maxwell and a bunch of spare parts and rookies.

The results really haven’t been good. A 10-6 team in both 2013 and 2014, the Eagles have started 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The defense has been good, ranking 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed, thanks to a strong front 7, but their secondary has been a problem, as Maxwell ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 9th worst ranked cornerback 4 games into a 6-year, 63 million dollar deal. The offense, meanwhile, has been a disaster, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains. Sam Bradford has been a clear downgrade from Foles and they’ve struggled to get anything going on the ground with either of their new running backs, thanks largely to poor offensive line play. On top of that, the Eagles will be missing both middle linebackers Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks with injury in this one, which hurts. The Saints will be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead for this one and I wouldn’t put any money on them, especially since they’re not a good road team and they have to host the Falcons in like 3 days on Thursday Night Football, but they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and should be able to cover here as 5 point underdogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Despite being without running back DeMarco Murray, middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks, middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, and defensive end Cedric Thornton, 4 above average starters, the Eagles were able to upset the Jets in New York as 3.5 point underdogs last week. This week, they get Kendricks and Murray back, but I don’t love the Eagles chances of pulling off another win for a number of reasons, this time in Washington as 3 point favorites.

For one, the Eagles are still banged up. Alonso and Thornton might not have been missed too much last week and Murray and Alonso might be back, but it’s still not good to be missing two talented starters from your defense. You’re not guaranteed to be able to overcome that every week just because you were able to do so one time, as the Eagles did last week. The Eagles were also really reliant on turnovers and a return touchdown last week, things that are hard to rely on every week, winning the turnover battle by 3 and returning a punt for a touchdown in the 7 point win. Teams that have a turnover margin of 3+ have a turnover margin on average of +0.1 the following week. The Redskins have injury issues too, missing wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and middle linebacker Perry Riley, and possibly cornerback Chris Culliver, but I still think the Eagles are missing more.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot, as a result of last week’s win, as favorites are just 4-19 ATS since 1989 during week 4 after winning their first game of the season in week 3. Despite that and the fact that they probably aren’t quite deserving of being field goal favorites here in Washington, where the Redskins have played decently this season, the public is still all over the Eagles, as Philadelphia is one of the most heavily bet sides of the week. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, unless we were getting 3.5 or 4 points and even then I still maybe wouldn’t, but they should be the right side. The only reason I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, besides their injuries, is because they have the harder game next week, going to Atlanta, while Philadelphia just hosts the Saints, but it’s still enough to scare me off.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)

This game had the biggest line movement from last week to this week of any line that didn’t involve an injured quarterback, as the Jets have gone from 3.5 point home underdogs to 2.5 point home favorites here this week. I usually love to fade huge line movements like that because they tend to be overreactionary and this one is no exception. Some of that movement is understandable, as the Eagles lost three important defensive starters, Cedric Thornton, Kiko Alonso, and Mychal Kendricks, with injury last week and couldn’t do anything offensively against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Jets went into Indianapolis and won by the final score of 20-7, backing up an impressive 31-10 week 1 win over the Browns.

However, if the Eagles had hit a makeable field goal in Atlanta week 1, they’d very likely be 1-1 right now and we wouldn’t be too worried about them. Meanwhile, the Jets have been overly reliant on winning the turnover battle through 2 weeks. They’ve had a +4 turnover margin in both games thus far, playing a huge part in their success, but that’s very tough to sustain. Teams that have a +4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

None of this is to say that the line shouldn’t have moved somewhat, as the Eagles are missing essential defensive personnel and their offense has struggled in Sam Bradford’s first year in town, while the Jets have proven they are at least a decent team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. He’s also had solid offensive play around him and new head coach Todd Bowles has this defense playing well too. However, they’ll be without wide receiver Eric Decker in this one, while running back Chris Ivory is going to be a gametime decision, and I think we’re getting a good deal getting a few points with the Eagles. I wouldn’t put money on it, but the Eagles are my pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)

I had the Eagles as being a little bit better than the Cowboys coming into the season, winning 10 games and the NFC East, while the Cowboys win 9 and come up just short. The Cowboys barely beat the Giants week 1, needing a miracle last second drive to win by 1, and also lost starting left guard Ronald Leary, starting defensive end Randy Gregory, and top receiver Dez Bryant with injuries. This line was 4 last week and now has shifted to 5.5, all of which seems reasonable at first glance.

However, I actually really like the Cowboys this week for a few reasons. For one, when I predicted the Cowboys at 9 wins, it was because I expected them to have more injuries on offense, after having the 2nd fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league last season. Losing Dez hurts, but this is still a talented offense. Meanwhile, Randy Gregory is just a 2nd round rookie anyway and Leary can be replaced in the lineup by La’El Collins, an undrafted rookie, but one who would have been a 1st round pick if not for the fact that he was wanted for questioning in the case of his pregnant ex-girlfriend’s death around the time of the draft. Collins was able to clear his name a few days after the draft and the Cowboys got a steal when he signed with them as an undrafted free agent.

The Cowboys should not be 5.5 point underdogs here in Philadelphia against the Eagles, who lost week 1 to an Atlanta team that isn’t very good. I’d say the Cowboys had a more impressive week 1 performance because they were able to win in spite of a -3 turnover margin. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 3 win just 10.7% of the time over the past 25 or so years. On top of that, turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, over the past 25 or so years, teams that post a -3 turnover margin in a game, on average, have a -0.1 turnover margin the following week. If the Cowboys can win despite some fluky turnovers, I think it speaks better to their long-term outlook than losing in Atlanta does.

The Cowboys are also arguably a better team on the road than at home, so I’m not concerned that they almost just lost at home to the inferior New York Giants. Since 2010, the Cowboys are 22-20 at home (14-28 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.21 points per game, as opposed to 22-19 on the road (24-16 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 0.37 points per game. The road team generally tends to do well in NFC East matchups overall anyway, for what that’s worth. The road team in NFC East divisional matchups is 53-34 ATS since 2008.

The reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Eagles have an easy game on deck, going to New York to face the Jets, where they are projected to be 3.5 point favorites. Teams are 96-70 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of a field goal or more. The Cowboys do host the Falcons up next, but, when both teams are 100% focused with no upcoming distractions, it tends to benefit the favorite more than the underdog. I’d still put money on Dallas though.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. Atlanta is a solid home team, but they’re not talented enough to be picked as mere 3 point home underdogs here against a good Philadelphia team.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: None

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