2014 Week 14 NFL Picks

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-7)

This line moved from 6.5 to 9.5 over the past week. Ordinarily, I hate going with huge line movements as they tend to be overreactions to one week (for example, Carolina getting blown out in Minnesota and New Orleans winning in Pittsburgh), but in this case I feel like all the line movement did was get this line more to where it should have been in the first place. The Saints have been underrated all season. They have a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -7 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 26th in the NFL. They could easily be 7-5 or better right now. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 11th, moving the chains at an 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.98% for their opponents, a differential of 2.67%. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 72.30% rate, as opposed to 75.53% for their opponents, a differential of -3.23%.

When you consider that, this line makes a lot more sense, especially when you take into account how good the Saints are at home. Sure, the Saints lost all 3 home games during their most recent homestand, but that doesn’t completely erase their recent history of home dominance. Prior to that, they had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Sean Payton and Drew Brees. In their previous 23 home games with Payton and Brees, they are 18-4-1 ATS. Even this year alone, the Saints move the chains at an 82.03% rate, as opposed to 77.20% for their opponents, a differential of 4.83% at home. The Saints are also in a good spot with a trip to Chicago on deck, where they are projected to be 3.5 point road favorites. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Saints have no upcoming distractions and can focus completely on the Panthers. This feels like a Saints blowout win.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, the Panthers are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 110-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. Two, teams are 74-56 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs on a 5+ game losing streak. Adding in the tie in Cincinnati, the Panthers haven’t won since week 5 and have one win since week 2. They’re the more desperate and embarrassed team. However, the Saints should still be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)

The Packers have been outstanding at home this season, moving the chains at an 80.51% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 9.89%. This home dominance is nothing new for them. Aaron Rodgers is 26-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 32-4 straight up, with an absurd +548 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.22 points per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 69.89% rate, as opposed to 75.12% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -5.23%.

However, this line largely takes all both of those things into account as it’s very high at 12.5. I still have a decent amount of confidence in the Packers to come away with a blowout victory here though. I wish the line was closer to 10, but we’re still getting value with the Packers here. On top of the Packers’ home dominance and the Falcons’ road struggles, the Packers are also in a great spot as they don’t have any upcoming distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-8 ATS before being 7+ point favorites (the early line is Green Bay -6.5). The Packers should be the right side here.

Green Bay Packers 38 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3)

The wheels are starting to fall off for the Arizona Cardinals. They have lost 2 straight by double digits in Seattle and Atlanta and they have one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters. I’ve said all season that this team had not been playing as well as their record and it’s finally starting to catch up with them. They’ve been way too reliant on a +10 turnover margin this season, powered by a 61.90% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +4 return touchdown margin.

All the advanced metrics have them as not being nearly as good as their record, even now that they’ve lost 2 in a row. They rank just 18th in the NFL in DVOA. In rate of moving the chains, they rank 12th, moving them at a 71.79% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of 2.16%. Their offense has been even worse since Carson Palmer went down, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.18% rate this season in games that Palmer doesn’t start, including the last 3. Now they’ve lost Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time defensively. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank 7th, moving the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 71.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.69%. The Cardinals don’t deserve to be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.

Speaking of the Cardinals being favored by a point, teams are 39-61 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals might not be completely focused for this non-conference game with a divisional game against the Rams up in 4 days. The Cardinals are also projected to be underdogs in that game, which opens up another bad spot for them as non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs.

On the flipside, the Chiefs host the Raiders up next, so all their focus will be on this game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 123-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I wish we were getting more than a point with the Chiefs, but they should be the right side.

There are two reasons why the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play here. For one, the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years, going 28-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. Two, teams that lose back-to-back road games are 44-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. However, I don’t think the Cardinals are undervalued here and they don’t deserve to be home favorites. The Chiefs are the better team in the better spot and I have a reasonable amount in confidence in their ability to pull the upset.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.96%. Not only should the Cowboys not be favored by more than a field goal here (3.5), I’m not convinced they should even be favored. On top of the line value we’re getting with the Bears, the Cowboys are also 12-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter. This is the time of year to fade Romo and I think we’re getting more than enough value to do it. I’m fairly confident in the Bears as long as this line is more than a field goal.

Chicago Bears 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +165

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Broncos, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3)

Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason why the public always loses money in the long run. However, there’s only a slight lean on the Broncos as 10 point favorites here. I think the public is actually slightly overrating the Bills here as underdogs. It makes sense that they’d do that as the Bills have a 7-5 record, but they are nowhere near as good as that record suggests.

The Bills rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.52% rate, as opposed to 67.73% for their opponents, a differential of -2.22%. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 1st, moving the chains at a 78.07% rate, as opposed to 70.82% for their opponents, a differential of 7.25%. I don’t think this line is high enough and I don’t have any problem taking the Broncos even with the public on them because it’s not a heavy lean. The Broncos have been especially good at home since Peyton Manning showed up in 2012, going 16-9 ATS as home favorites, including 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more.

The Bills are also in a tough spot as they host Green Bay next week. Teams are 59-92 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and 30-64 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. Meanwhile, the Broncos head to San Diego, where they will be road favorites. Teams are 100-63 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, which the Broncos could easily be next week. I like the Broncos to blow out the Bills here.

Denver Broncos 31 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Giants, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10)

The Giants typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.52 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate. As a result, they are 55-38 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-8 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, as they are here.

Giants are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 36-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game.

The Giants lost last week in Jacksonville on the road, but they lead early 21-0 and only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and the return touchdown battle by 2. Despite that, they still only lost by 1 (as 2.5 point favorites). The Jaguars lost the chain game by a significant amount, moving them at a 67.86% rate, while the Giants moved them at a 71.43% rate. The Giants probably win that game 80-85% of the game and probably cover about 75% of the time.

Now they face an even easier opponent than Jacksonville as the Titans have been horrible this season and they do so as even smaller favorites (1 point) and in their 2nd straight road game. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.77% rate, as opposed to 76.72% for their opponents, a differential of -8.95%, while the Giants rank 21st, moving the chains at a 72.93% rate, as opposed to 74.27% for their opponents, a differential of -1.43%. I like the Giants’ chances of winning straight up here in Tennessee and I have confidence in them as mere 1 point favorites.

New York Giants 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Uncategorized, Vikings

New York Jets (2-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

Both of these teams will be road underdogs next week, but the Vikings will have a much tougher game. While the Jets will be in Tennessee, the Vikings have to go to Detroit. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot because they are non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 88-107 ATS in since 2002, but the Jets are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 100-70 ATS in that spot since 2002.

The Vikings could also be in a bad spot as teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The Vikings are 5-7 and need to finish 2-2 or better over their final 4 games. They are projected to be favored at home week 17 for Chicago in addition to being favored here so that trend might not necessarily be applicable, but it easily could be. Even if it isn’t, this line is still way too high at 6 points regardless.

The Vikings are even worse than their record suggests, as they rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.53% rate, as opposed to 74.11% for their opponents, a differential of -5.59%. The Jets aren’t good, but they actually rank higher, ranking 27th, moving the chains at a 68.19% rate, as opposed to 72.93% for their opponents, a differential of -4.74%, almost a whole percentage point better than Minnesota. The public saw the Vikings beat the Panthers 31-13 last week, but they ignore that they had 2 touchdowns on blocked punts, which is obviously not sustainable. The Vikings lost the chain game to the Panthers, as they have almost every week this season.

The public is on the Vikings and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here. Regardless of what record the Vikings finish with, they aren’t deserving of being 6 point favorites over pretty much anyone (except Oakland and maybe Tennessee). Speaking of the Vikings being 6 point favorites this week and speaking of them having a tough game next week, favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002. Between that and the fact that the Vikings are overrated, I like the Jets a good amount here as long as the line is 6 or more.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2014 Week 13 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Last week

Against the Spread: 8-8

Straight Up: 10-6

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 0-1

Medium Confidence: 1-3

Low Confidence: 2-2

No Confidence: 5-1

Upset Picks: 2-2

On the season

Against the Spread: 112-79-1 (.586)

Straight Up: 126-65-1 (.660)

Pick of the Week: 8-5

High Confidence: 8-8

Medium Confidence: 41-20

Low Confidence: 26-22-1

No Confidence: 29-24

Upset Picks: 15-15

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 14

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 311 39 18 41 20 5 0 80.65%
2 GB 260 41 23 38 8 3 2 80.27%
3 DEN 280 44 18 54 13 6 0 78.07%
4 NE 281 39 28 49 9 4 0 78.05%
5 PIT 295 32 24 47 16 6 0 77.86%
6 BAL 265 34 28 38 15 6 0 77.46%
7 IND 295 42 25 45 22 6 1 77.29%
8 DAL 250 33 22 45 22 3 1 75.27%
9 SEA 243 29 30 44 9 6 1 75.14%
10 MIA 263 29 29 42 18 8 0 75.06%
11 KC 237 30 18 54 13 4 0 75.00%
12 SD 245 30 21 54 14 3 0 74.93%
13 CHI 254 30 12 51 23 10 0 74.74%
14 ATL 250 30 24 52 18 6 1 73.49%
15 NYG 259 32 12 61 25 10 0 72.93%
16 PHI 275 32 29 56 28 4 0 72.41%
17 CAR 251 23 24 58 20 3 0 72.30%
18 ARZ 228 24 21 66 11 1 0 71.79%
19 CIN 234 28 25 56 18 4 0 71.78%
20 HOU 238 27 26 57 17 4 1 71.62%
21 WAS 243 27 22 58 22 6 0 71.43%
22 SF 232 22 25 56 18 5 0 70.95%
23 DET 232 23 30 54 15 6 0 70.83%
24 CLE 251 26 26 65 16 9 0 70.48%
25 STL 218 26 21 60 19 4 0 70.11%
26 MIN 213 20 25 64 14 4 0 68.53%
27 TB 209 22 19 55 25 7 1 68.34%
28 NYJ 219 19 24 61 20 6 0 68.19%
29 TEN 201 24 15 64 21 5 2 67.77%
30 JAX 211 19 18 71 24 7 0 65.71%
31 BUF 205 23 31 64 16 7 2 65.52%
32 OAK 184 19 14 78 26 3 0 62.65%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 BUF 234 20 25 67 25 4 0 67.73%
2 PHI 241 31 19 70 22 8 0 69.57%
3 ARZ 228 22 25 58 21 5 0 69.64%
4 CLE 252 25 26 65 22 6 1 69.77%
5 SF 217 25 16 57 22 6 0 70.55%
6 MIA 222 24 26 46 21 8 1 70.69%
7 DEN 237 30 21 67 16 5 1 70.82%
8 DET 233 22 18 65 17 4 1 70.83%
9 KC 235 21 27 56 10 10 0 71.31%
10 SEA 222 22 20 55 18 3 1 71.55%
11 WAS 221 34 16 64 15 3 0 72.24%
12 STL 240 25 19 55 22 5 0 72.40%
13 IND 247 33 14 64 18 10 0 72.54%
14 JAX 251 31 26 56 17 5 1 72.87%
15 NYJ 222 34 23 62 8 2 0 72.93%
16 HOU 264 28 17 57 28 6 0 73.00%
17 NE 261 25 29 44 20 12 0 73.15%
18 CIN 268 24 27 52 17 8 2 73.37%
19 SD 229 28 20 51 13 7 1 73.64%
20 OAK 246 35 27 60 8 5 0 73.75%
21 BAL 248 27 22 50 18 6 1 73.92%
22 PIT 237 32 24 54 14 1 1 74.10%
23 MIN 243 29 18 58 15 4 0 74.11%
24 TB 260 33 29 53 19 1 0 74.18%
25 NYG 247 33 24 51 19 3 0 74.27%
26 DAL 236 30 15 51 19 7 0 74.30%
27 ATL 269 30 31 45 24 1 0 74.75%
28 CHI 242 34 30 38 19 6 0 74.80%
29 CAR 252 35 22 51 17 3 0 75.53%
30 GB 271 29 17 42 23 11 0 76.34%
31 TEN 288 35 29 50 15 4 0 76.72%
32 NO 269 32 25 44 13 2 1 77.98%

 

Overall

1 DEN 7.25%
2 NE 4.90%
3 IND 4.75%
4 MIA 4.37%
5 GB 3.93%
6 PIT 3.75%
7 KC 3.69%
8 SEA 3.58%
9 BAL 3.54%
10 PHI 2.84%
11 NO 2.67%
12 ARZ 2.16%
13 SD 1.29%
14 DAL 0.96%
15 CLE 0.71%
16 SF 0.40%
17 DET 0.00%
18 CHI -0.06%
19 WAS -0.81%
20 ATL -1.26%
21 NYG -1.34%
22 HOU -1.38%
23 CIN -1.59%
1 BUF -2.22%
2 STL -2.29%
3 CAR -3.23%
4 NYJ -4.74%
5 MIN -5.59%
6 TB -5.83%
7 JAX -7.15%
8 TEN -8.95%
9 OAK -11.10%