NFL Picks

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Seattle Seahawks (9-6)

Unlike other games this week, I am confident the Seahawks will play their starters the whole way in this game, unless they jump out to a huge lead, in which case covering this spread shouldn’t be a problem. The Seahawks are locked into either the 5th or 6th seed, but they’ve never rested starters in the past even when they’ve had nothing to play for and I think they’d much rather go to Dallas next week than either Chicago or Los Angeles. Winning this game assures they will face the Cowboys, easily the weakest of the four division winners.

Given that the Seahawks will be treating this as a real game, I like their chances of covering as 13-point home favorites. The Cardinals are horrible, ranking dead last in first down rate differential at -8.41%, and they’ve been even worse over the past 8 weeks at -9.49%, as injuries have piled up on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have gotten better as the season has gone on, just as they have in almost every season in the Russell Wilson era, going 37-17 ATS in the final 8 games of the regular season since 2012.

I haven’t picked them much in recent weeks because they went just 3-5 ATS in the final 8 games of last season and because they don’t have the same talent level they had from 2012-2016 when they always finished the season dominantly, but Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level and Pete Carroll seems to have once again gotten his team playing at a high level at the end of the season. They should run over the worst team in the league.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -13

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (9-6) at New York Giants (5-10)

This is another game with motivational uncertainty. The Cowboys are locked into the #4 seed in the NFC and have rested starts with nothing to play for in the past, but Jason Garrett at least publicly says he’s treating this as a real game because the Cowboys still have issues they need to work through. That makes some sense, as the last time the Cowboys rested starters it was with a first round bye locked up, but the Cowboys have also been giving more reps to backups at practice this week, including practice squad running back Darius Jackson, who could split carries with backup Rod Smith this week if Ezekiel Elliott sits on the sidelines, with his rushing title all but wrapped up.

If Elliott sits, you have to figure banged up offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Zack Martin also won’t play and, without those two and Elliott, it doesn’t make much sense to have Dak Prescott or any other stars play for more than a quarter or so. This line also seems to expect the Cowboys to mail it in, favoring the Giants by 6. The Giants are also missing a pair of stars though, without stud safety Landon Collins and #1 wide receiver Odell Beckham due to injury, so I’m taking the Cowboys for pick ‘em purposes and hoping they don’t completely mail it in.

New York Giants 24 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas +6

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (13-2)

This is one of several games this week that is unpredictable because of uncertainty about motivation. Saints head coach Sean Payton is at least giving lip service to playing his starters, but with the #1 seed in the NFC locked up it’s unlikely he’ll play his starters the whole game and the last time the Saints in 2009 were in this position their stars didn’t play at all. Drew Brees has already said publicly he doesn’t expect to play the whole game.

Backup quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill are good enough to still lead the Saints to a victory even if Brees and company barely play and the Panthers are could be fielding a skeleton crew as well, down to practice squader Kyle Allen under center, missing top defensive lineman Kawann Short and talented guard Trai Turner, and possibly resting other key players like stud feature back Christian McCaffrey in a meaningless game, but this line is pretty high at 7. I’m taking the Saints for pick ‘em purposes, but I’m not putting much time into handicapping a game with this kind of uncertainty.

New Orleans Saints 24 Carolina Panthers 16

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: None

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-6-1)

Vikings came into the season with high expectations, but now are fighting for their playoff lives against a team that had the kind of year they were expected to have, the 11-4 Bears, who have clinched the NFC North. The Vikings have been better recently though and have started resembling the team they were supposed to be. Their offensive line remains a problem, but they’ve taken a more balanced approach on offense since changing offensive coordinators, leaning on Latavius Murray and a finally healthy Dalvin Cook, which has benefitted both the offensive line and inconsistent quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Their defense has also played a lot better since getting defensive end Everson Griffen back in the middle of the season and they rank 2nd in first down rate allowed since week 9 at 30.96%, only behind their week 17 opponent. The Vikings are playing their best football at the right time and, with the Bears missing stud safety Eddie Jackson due to injury right now, these two teams are about even right now, with the Vikings actually ranking slightly higher in my roster rankings.

Unfortunately, this is one of several games I’m staying away from this week because of motivational uncertainty. This line favors the Vikings by 5 points at home, suggesting the books think the Bears are not going to bring their best effort, needing an improbable Rams loss at home to the 49ers to change their seeding, against a Vikings team they might be facing again in the first round. That may be the case, but I’m not totally convinced.

The Bears may sit injured #1 receiver Allen Robinson for cautionary reasons, but I don’t expect them to completely mail it in with a first round bye on the line (especially with key injured players who could use a week off) and I think they may also want to eliminate a division rival and face a banged up Eagles squad in the first round if they have to play next weekend. This is a no confidence pick and I may update this at some point, but the Bears should be able to keep it within the points if they treat this like a real game.

Minnesota Vikings 20 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +5

Confidence: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)

The Dolphins are 7-7, but have not played nearly as well as their record. While their 7 wins have come by a combined 38 points, their 7 losses have come by a combined 117 points, giving them a -79 point differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. That’s despite the fact that they rank tied for 4th in the NFL in turnover margin at +9. Turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t necessarily be able to rely on that going forward, and they rank just 30th in first down rate differential at -5.75%.

The Dolphins have been significantly better at home than on the road, going 6-1 at home and 1-6 on the road, but home/road disparities tend to be random more than anything. Over the past 30 years, there have been 26 teams that have a home winning percentage 60% better than their road winning percentage this late in the season. Those teams are 13-13 ATS in their next home game. That’s not reason enough to bet against the Dolphins, but we also shouldn’t blindly bet them because they’ve been good at home.

That being said, we’re not getting nearly enough points with the Jaguars at +4 to take them with any confidence. While Jacksonville’s defense is by far the strongest unit in this game, their offense is by far the worst, with a ton of injuries on the offensive line and a backup caliber quarterback under center in Cody Kessler. Miami hasn’t gotten any blowout wins this season, but this is one of their easier games. I expect this to be a close game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dolphins won with relative ease compared to their other wins.

Miami Dolphins 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +4

Confidence: None

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-11)

The Broncos have had a tough year. They started the season with the toughest schedule in the league through 11 games, going 5-6, with close losses to the Texans, Rams, and Chiefs (twice) and wins over the Chargers, Steelers, and Seahawks. The schedule has gotten easier recently, but they’re not the same team as they were earlier in the season, with key players like right guard Ron Leary, center Matt Paradis, cornerback Chris Harris, and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on injured reserve and fellow wide receiver Demaryius Thomas traded to the Texans. As a result, they’ve lost 2 of 3 and were eliminated from the playoffs last week with a home loss to the Browns.

Their schedule remains easy this week, with a trip to Oakland on deck, but the Broncos might not bring their best effort. With their season over, the Broncos could be looking forward to a much tougher game against the Chargers, a game in which they are 5.5-point home underdogs on the early line. Road favorites, which the Broncos are this week, are just 23-47 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs.

The Raiders aren’t in a good spot either, with a trip to Kansas City on deck, a game in which they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 22-46 ATS since 2016 before being double digit underdogs, as tough upcoming games tend to present a distraction to teams. However, this is likely the Raiders’ last game in Oakland, so I expect a strong effort from them. We’re not getting enough line value with them as 3-point underdogs to bet them confidently, but they should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 19

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (10-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)

After winning the Super Bowl last year, the Eagles’ 2018 season was derailed by injuries and close losses (6 losses by 7 points or fewer), but they are still very much in the playoff race in the NFC after backup quarterback Nick Foles led them to a big upset victory over the Rams in Los Angeles last week. Foles isn’t an upgrade on Carson Wentz, but Wentz was not at 100% all season and the team really does seem to play harder with a backup quarterback in the lineup, embracing the underdog role.

The Eagles are not underdogs this week, favored by 2 points at home against the Texans, but I would expect them to continue playing hard against a tough opponent with their season on the line. They’re also finally getting some players back from injury, most notably stud every down linebacker Jordan Hicks, who is not listed on the injury report this week, after missing 4 games with a calf injury. We’re not getting enough line value with the Eagles to take them with any confidence, but I think the most likely outcome in this game is a Philadelphia win by a field goal, which would cover this spread.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-9) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Cowboys were shut out in Indianapolis last week, ending their 5-game winning streak. That was a tough spot for them though, on the road against a strong Indianapolis team, without their top offensive lineman Zack Martin, after back-to-back tough wins over the Saints and Eagles. This week, they are at home with an easier matchup against the Buccaneers, they probably are getting Martin back, and they should be more focused after last week’s loss humbled them.

That being said, I’m still leaning towards the Buccaneers as 7-point underdogs. The Cowboys have had offensive issues all season and that has kept them from blowing out their opponents, with 7 of their 8 wins coming by 8 points or fewer. Even if Martin is back, he likely won’t be at 100%, which could be a major problem for this offense. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have also played a lot of close games in recent years, with 12 of their 20 losses over the past 2 seasons coming by 8 points or fewer.

The Buccaneers have defensive issues (6th in first down rate allowed at 41.02%) and they start one of the more turnover prone quarterbacks in the league in Jameis Winston, but their offense moves the ball well (30th in first down rate at 41.28%) and is more than capable of getting a backdoor cover if needed. There’s not enough here to take the Buccaneers with any confidence and we’re not really getting any line value with the Buccaneers, but this could easily be another close game for these teams, so I like the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

Earlier in the week, the Chiefs seemed like the clear pick. The Seahawks have a solid record at 8-6 and have been playing better offensively in recent weeks, but their defense has had trouble getting off the field this season. They’ve played the 2nd fewest defensive snaps in the league, as a result of the offense going 11 of 14 on 4th down on the season and only turning over the ball 10 times, fewest in the NFL, but 4th down percentages and turnovers tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t always be able to depend on that making life easier for their defense and they rank just 26th in first down rate allowed at 38.51%.

However, the Seahawks could be getting a huge boost defensively this week, with the return of outside linebacker KJ Wright from injury. Bobby Wagner is the linebacker that gets all the attention on this defense, but Wright is arguably the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the league when healthy. Lingering knee issues have limited him to just 133 underwhelming snaps in 3 games this season, a big part of why they’ve struggled defensively, especially since replacement Austin Calitro has been horrendous this season. It’s tough to know if Wright is at 100% or if he’ll play his full snaps, but his return should be a boost for this defense.

Despite that, this line didn’t really shift to adjust for his return, opening at Kansas CIty -2.5 and only falling to Kansas City -2, really insignificant line movement. With Wright in the lineup, I have this line calculated at Kansas CIty -2.5, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Chiefs, but not nearly enough to take them with any sort of confidence this week. I think the most likely outcome in this game is a Kansas City win by a field goal, which would cover this spread, but this was one of the toughest games of the week for me to decide on because the Seahawks could easily pull this upset at home.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Seattle Seahawks 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2

Confidence: None