Year: 2021

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

The Vikings are just 1-3, but they have played much better than their record, playing teams that are a combined 12-4 through four weeks who could all end up as playoff qualifiers and playing all of their teams close, losing by a combined 11 points to actually give them a positive point differential at +2 on the season. I thought the Vikings would be a significantly improved team in 2021 because their defense is much healthier and more talented than a year ago and, while their record hasn’t shown it, they have been at least a solid team overall and have been much more balanced than a year ago.

This week, things get a lot easier for the Vikings, who host a Lions team that was already one of the weakest in the league entering the season and now is very injury depleted. In total, they are missing their top-2 offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow, their top edge rusher Romeo Okwara, and their likely top cornerback Jeff Okudah, with Ragnow and Okwara just going down in the past couple weeks. On top of that, talented edge defender Trey Flowers has missed the past two games and is no guarantee to return this week, while left tackle Penei Sewell, by default their best offensive lineman now, might also miss this game.

This line might seem high at Minnesota -10, but I actually have the Vikings favored by 15 in my calculated line, as they could easily be 3-1 with wins over quality teams and in that case would likely be favored by at least two touchdowns against one of the two worst teams in the league. The Vikings are also in a bit of a good spot in their third straight home game, which has about a 55.3% cover rate all-time. This is a smaller bet for now, but if this line happens to move down from 10, I would increase this play to a high confidence pick.

Update: Dalvin Cook has been ruled out for the Vikings, but this line has dropped to 9.5 to compensate. I already had Cook factored in as limited, so the line movement is the more important development to me. I am increasing this to a high confidence pick, as the Lions are still in much worse injury shape and are a much less talented team to begin with.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Detroit Lions 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -9.5

Confidence: High

New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (1-3) at Houston Texans (1-3)

The Patriots are 1-3, but they’ve had some bad luck to get to that point, as two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points in games in which they lost three fumbles. Fumbles and fumble recovery rate are among the least predictive stats and the Patriots have been as disciplined holding onto the football as any team in the league in recent years, so it’s unlikely that will be a long-term problem, while more predictive metrics like yards per play and first down rate give the Patriots a statistical edge in both their loss to the Dolphins and their loss to the Buccaneers. 

Their other loss was not nearly as close, losing to the Saints by 15, but they also could have been caught looking forward to their huge matchup with the Buccaneers the following week in that game. The Patriots continue to have bad luck though, now in the form of significant missing personnel, as their offensive line that was already struggling without injured right tackle Trent Brown will now be without right guard Shaq Mason and likely left guard Michael Onwenu and left tackle Isaiah Wynn, four of their five week one starters from a group that was supposed to be a strength of this team.

The good news is the Patriots face a Texans team that is easily the worst in the league without rookie quarterback Davis Mills under center, as they have not been remotely competitive since losing quarterback Tyrod Taylor to injury. Mills has looked lost as an NFL quarterback so far, but if possible, I expect him to look even worse this week, given Bill Belichick’s track record against rookie quarterbacks. We saw this defense completely confuse a more talented rookie just a few weeks ago and this week could be even worse.

Unfortunately, this spread (New England -8) is too high for me to confidently bet the Patriots without their whole offensive line on the road, even against a team as bad as the Texans. The Texans offense should struggle to sustain drives all game, so the Patriots won’t have to score too many points to cover, but if the Patriots allow a couple turnovers without their offensive line, the Texans could make this closer than expected.

My calculated line is actually right where this line is at New England -8 and, with that in mind, I’m actually going to take the Texans for pick ‘em purposes, as teams tend to bounce back after a huge blowout loss like the Texans had last week, covering at about a 58.5% rate all-time after a loss by 35 points or more and a 55.9% rate all-time after being shutout. That’s not nearly enough for me to take the Texans with any confidence, but it’s a tiebreaker in a matchup where the line is about right.

New England Patriots 16 Houston Texans 9

Pick against the spread: Houston +8

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

Both of these teams are 3-1, but one is clearly getting more respect than the other, with the Packers favored by a field goal on the road. It’s understandable, given that the Packers have a history of recent success and have reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers under center, while the Bengals do not have that history of recent success, but right now the Bengals actually have the better roster overall and, while they may not have Aaron Rodgers, they are at home and quarterback Joe Burrow is playing well enough that he could easily outperform or match Rodgers, who has about a 10 point drop in QB rating when he goes on the road in his career, well above average for a quarterback. 

The Bengals are coming off of an uninspiring performance against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, but they were missing their top-2 defensive backs, including safety Jessie Bates, who is one of the best safeties in the league. Both Bates and Chidobe Awuzie are back this week and, even with last week’s uninspiring performance included, the Bengals have had a significantly higher DVOA (14.8%, 10th in the NFL vs. 1.7%, 17th in the NFL) on the season than the Packers, who are the team with the much bigger injury concerns this week.

The Packers have been without stud left tackle David Bakhtiari all season, a huge blow to an offensive line that lost its other elite offensive lineman Corey Linsley in free agency and entered this season starting a pair of rookies upfront, after having one of the best offensive lines in the league for years. Elgton Jenkins, who has moved to left tackle from left guard to replace Bakhtiari, also missed last week with injury and, while he could be back this week, he may not be at 100% and, on top of that, rookie center Josh Myers will miss his first game of the season this week, a concern given that Myers had been holding up pretty well and the Packers don’t have a proven backup behind him.

Meanwhile, their defense, which was already missing its top edge defender Za’Darius Smith, will be without top cornerback Jaire Alexander. Not only are Smith and Alexander their two best defensive players, but, when healthy, they are among the best players in the league at their position. It’s going to be very difficult for this defense to adapt to not having either, while their offense is likely to continue having much shakier play on the offensive line than they are used to. With all of this taken into account, I have the Bengals a couple points higher than the Packers in my roster rankings, so getting a full field goal with them at home feels like stealing. This is my Pick of the Week.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

The Rams got off to an impressive 3-0 start, capped by a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they lost at home last week to another impressive team, the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks, meanwhile, bounced back from two straight losses to win in San Francisco last week, a quality win on the road. Despite that, this line has shifted from favoring the Rams by 1.5 points a week ago up to 2.5 points this week. That’s not a significant shift, but it’s a shift away from what you would expect based on last week’s results.

One possible reason for the shift is that Seahawks running back Chris Carson will likely be out, or at least limited, but the Seahawks will get right tackle Brandon Shell back, which somewhat cancels that out because the Seahawks have better running back depth than offensive tackle depth. The Seahawks also have been close to an automatic bet on Thursday Night in the Russell Wilson era, going 9-0-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS at home. 

I normally don’t put too much stock into those types of things, but the Seahawks have had the same coach and quarterback throughout that stretch, so it’s possible they just prepare better on short weeks. I would need a full field goal to bet the Seahawks against the spread, as my calculated line is even, but this is no worse than a 50/50 bet on the money line, so the Seahawks are worth a play at +120.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

2021 Week 4 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

DAL -4.5 vs. CAR

High Confidence Picks

LV +3 @ LAC

CLE PK @ MIN

Medium Confidence Picks

ARZ +4 @ LAR

GB -6.5 vs. PIT

NE +7 vs. TB

NYG +7 @ NO

CIN -7.5 vs. JAX

Low Confidence Picks

ATL +2 vs. WAS

SF -2.5 vs. SEA

CHI -3 vs. DET

MIA -2 vs. IND

PHI +7 vs. KC

No Confidence Picks

BUF -17 vs. HOU

TEN -6 @ NYJ

BAL +1 @ DEN

Upset Picks

ATL +110 vs. WAS

LV +145 @ LAC

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Football Team (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Washington is 1-2 with their only win coming by just 1 point over the Giants at home, but they are still a little overrated, favored by 2 points on the road in Atlanta, against a Falcons team that I have just a half point worse than Washington in my roster rankings. Both teams are mediocre, but the public hasn’t caught on to the fact that Washington’s defense isn’t as good as a year ago. They still have their dominant defensive line, but their back seven isn’t nearly as good as a year ago. Overall, this defense isn’t good enough to carry an offense that is starting a backup quarterback and that has a noticeably worse offensive line than a year ago. There isn’t quite enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line at +110 is a good value because the Falcons should be no worse than 50/50 to win this game at home.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Washington Football Team 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

I expected the 49ers to win the NFC West and be one of the top teams in the NFC coming into the season, but that was primarily dependent on them staying significantly healthier than a year ago. The 49ers were much better than their 6-10 record suggested last season and they are still not as injury plagued as a year ago, but the injuries are piling up, as they are missing starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, their top two cornerbacks Jason Verrett and K’Waun Williams, starting running back Raheem Mostert, and possibly their stud tight end George Kittle, who barely practiced this week.

I still have the 49ers a little bit better than the Seahawks, a solid team in their own right, so this line, which only favors them by 2.5 points at home, is too low, but I can’t bet on the 49ers confidently given the uncertainty around Kittle’s status and how much he will play. I also don’t like going against Russell Wilson after back-to-back losses, as he is 30-13-3 ATS in his career off of a loss and 9-1 ATS off of back-to-back losses. This is a low confidence pick on the 49ers right now, but I would probably drop all confidence if Kittle is ruled out or significantly limited.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3)

This is a pretty unappealing game to bet on. I have thought the Titans are overrated since before the season began. They won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They drew a lot of attention in the off-season for their addition of Julio Jones, but he is on the decline and might not be an upgrade on free agent departure Corey Davis, while the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and an aging offensive line also affect this offense in a negative fashion. They are 2-1, but their point differential is still negative at -13, as a result of an embarrassing week one loss to the Cardinals.

The Jets, however, are one of the worst teams in the league, with the league’s worst point differential (-50), and are the type of team the Titans could beat by multiple scores. The Titans are missing their top-2 wide receivers with both Julio Jones and AJ Brown out, while their defense will be missing edge defender Bud Dupree and cornerback Caleb Farley, two key off-season additions, but the Jets will be missing their top defensive player Marcus Maye from a roster that was already very thin on above average players. My calculated line is right at where the odds makers have it, Tennessee -6, and I don’t see a real edge for either side, but I’m taking the Titans purely because it’s hard to expect anything positive from the Jets right now.

Tennessee Titans 24 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2)

The big question for the Bears this week is who is going to start at quarterback. Veteran Andy Dalton began the season as the starter, much to the chagrin of fans who wanted to see rookie first round pick Justin Fields get a shot from the start of the season, and even when Dalton struggled through two games and then injured his knee, Dalton remained the starter on the depth chart, with Fields only coming into the lineup as an injury replacement. 

Fields had a shot to flip the depth chart with a good performance in Dalton’s absence, but Fields struggled mightily last week in an embarrassing loss to the Browns. With Dalton at less than 100%, Fields’ performance last week prompted the Bears to make this a three quarterback battle, with veteran third stringer Nick Foles a possibility to start over Fields if Dalton can’t play. The Bears are calling their quarterback decision a gametime call, likely suggesting they are holding out hope Dalton can play through his injury, and there isn’t anything close to definitive on who the Bears are going to use this week.

Ultimately, who starts at quarterback might not matter that much because none of them are good enough to elevate a team with serious issues beyond the quarterback position, especially on the offensive line. Fortunately, the Bears do get a much easier matchup this week with the Lions, one of the worst teams in the league, coming to town and, on top of that, the Bears’ defense should at least be in somewhat better shape with nose tackle Eddie Goldman and possibly middle linebacker Danny Trevathan set to make their season debuts after missing the start of the year with injury.

The Bears are 1.5 points better than the Lions in my roster rankings, suggesting they should be favored by more than the field goal they are favored by, but these are the 4th worst and 5th worst teams in my roster rankings and it’s hard to get excited to bet on a team as mediocre as the Bears, especially given their uncertain quarterback situation. I’m still taking the Bears for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick and I might drop it to no confidence depending on what they do with their quarterback situation. The worst thing they could do in my opinion would be to try to play Dalton at less than 100%, as he is not an upgrade enough over Fields or Foles to justify playing him at less than full strength.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

The Chiefs have started the season 1-2, matching last season’s regular season loss total, but I am not too concerned about them going forward. They have faced a relatively tough schedule overall and both of their losses could have easily been wins, including a game last week against the Chargers in which they won the first down rate battle by 7.92%, but lost by six because of a -4 turnover margin, which is an relatively non-predictive metric and highly uncharacteristic for this team. Their offense still leads the league in first down rate, which is the most predictive offensive metric and offense is the more predictive side of the ball in general.

All of that being said, I still feel like the Chiefs are being overvalued. Now dating back to week 9 of last season, the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 11 straight regular season games and, including playoffs, they’ve covered just once in their past 14 games. This spread has the Chiefs favored by a touchdown, but their average margin of victory in their past 10 wins is just 5 points per game with just one win by more than 6 points. The odds makers know they can boost the spread on the Chiefs and still get bettors willing to take them and it doesn’t seem like that has stopped.

As good as Patrick Mahomes and his playmakers are, their new look offensive line hasn’t been as much of an upgrade as expected and their defense looks like a below average unit, so the Chiefs could easily continue playing a lot of close games. I’m not confident enough in the Eagles to bet on them, as they are missing their top edge rusher Brandon Graham and a trio of starting offensive linemen in left tackle Jordan Mailata, right guard Brandon Brooks, and left guard Isaac Seumalo with injury,, all of whom were badly missed in last week’s blowout loss to the Cowboys, but my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by just 6 points, so we’re at least getting some line value with the Eagles. This is a low confidence pick, but I would expect a relatively close game.

Update: The Eagles surprisingly will also be without right tackle Lane Johnson due to a personal matter, meaning they will be without four of their five week one starters on the offensive line. However, the Chiefs will be without top edge rusher Frank Clark and a pair of cornerbacks, Charvarius Ward and Rashad Fenton, so I am not changing anything on this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 24

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +7

Confidence: Low