Month: October 2022

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Rams

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3)

The Panthers came into this season with some hope of being better on offense, adding quarterback Baker Mayfield and overhauling the offensive line in front of him, after finishing the 2021 season ranked 29th in offensive efficiency. Their defense ranked 4th in efficiency last season, and, while they didn’t look quite as talented on defense going into this season, they still seemed to have an above average unit on that side of the ball, so if they had a somewhat decent offense, the Panthers could have been a competitive team this season. 

Carolina’s defense has mostly held up its end of the bargain, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but their offense has been arguably worse than a year ago, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency. Things went from bad to worse for the Panthers last week when they were blown out at home by the 49ers in a game in which Baker Mayfield got hurt and after which head coach Matt Rhule was fired, meaning the Panthers will have a completely different head coach/quarterback combination this week than they did a week ago. It’s unclear if that will help though and it actually could make things worse. 

Rhule was definitely overmatched as head coach, but interim head coach Steve Wilks does not have a good track record leading a team and their offense problems will remain, with Wilks being a defensive coach and Ben McAdoo still in charge on offense. Meanwhile, as badly as Mayfield has played, backup PJ Walker has proven to be completely overmatched whenever he’s been forced into action in the past and at ont point this off-season he was the Panthers’ 4th quarterback, before injuries to Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Matt Corral. 

The Panthers are also in a tough spot in Los Angeles against a Rams team that has a bye on deck, with big home favorites covering the spread at a high rate before their bye week, doing so at a 62.9% rate all-time as home favorites of 6 points or more. That trend would seem to apply, with the Rams being favored by 10 points, but, even with all of the problems the Panthers have, I think the Rams are overvalued at that number, as they have their own offensive problems, having lost several starters from last year’s Super Bowl team, due to injuries and free agency. 

The Panthers still have a strong defense, especially with safety Xavier Woods back from a one-game absence, so it’s really hard to trust the Rams as double digit favorites in what figures to be a low scoring game, even with the head coach and quarterback issues the Panthers have and even with the Rams in a good spot. I can’t have any confidence in the Panthers either, but they seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes, with my calculated line only favoring the offense challenged Rams by 6.

Los Angeles Rams 19 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Carolina +10

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)

The Steelers were blown out last week in Buffalo, losing the first down rate battle by 6.42% and the yards per play battle by 5.17 in a 38-3 defeat. That normally is a good thing for their chances of covering the spread this week though, as teams tend to bounce back after a blowout loss, covering the spread at a 58.4% rate after a loss by 35 points or more, with teams tending to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed in that spot. 

We did see this line move from favoring the Buccaneers by 6.5 points on the early line to now favoring the Buccaneers by 9.5, but that’s not necessarily an overreaction to the Steelers getting blown out last week, as the Steelers are have significant injury concerns in their secondary now, with talented safety Minkah Fitzpatrick out, as well as their top-3 cornerbacks, Ahkello Witherspoon, Cameron Sutton, and Levi Wallace. This is on a defense that is already far from its best without top edge defender TJ Watt.

Given all of the Steelers’ injuries, my calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by 11 points. That may seem high, but the Buccaneers are one of the best teams in the league, while the Steelers have had a propensity to get blown out in recent years, with 10 of their 17 losses coming by double digits, including playoffs. There’s not nearly enough line value with the Buccaneers to take them confidently given that the Steelers are in the better spot, but the Buccaneers should still be the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -9.5

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Packers

New York Jets (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

I was hoping we would get some value with the Packers this week, back at home after a disappointing performance in London against the Giants last week. In Aaron Rodgers’ career, the Packers have had a significant homefield advantage, going 47-20 ATS at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers, with Rodgers having a QB rating that is 10 points better at home, significantly higher than the average differential for a quarterback. Unfortunately, despite the Packers’ loss last week and the Jets’ upset win over the Dolphins, this line has barely moved from a week ago, with the Packers still favored by 7.5 points, after being favored by 9 on the early line last week, a pretty insignificant difference. 

That’s probably because the Jets are still underrated, as their offense is significantly better than earlier this year with Zach Wilson and Duane Brown back from injury, while their defense (8th) and special teams (2nd) both rank well above average in efficiency. Even with extra homefield advantage taken into account, my calculated line only has the Packers favored by a touchdown, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Jets, although not nearly enough to be confident picking them.

Green Bay Packers 27 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals are off to a 2-3 start, but they’ve been worse than that suggests, as they have a negative point differential, -18, despite a positive turnover margin, +3, tied for 4th best in the NFL. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cardinals rank 22nd. Despite that, they are favored on the road against a competent Seahawks team that has been competitive in all but one of their games. My calculated line has the Seahawks favored by a point, with the Cardinals being on the road and only having a slight edge in my roster rankings. The Cardinals are also in a tough spot with a short week next week, with favorites covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate before Thursday Night Football. I wish we were getting the full field goal with the Seahawks, but they’re still worth a bet at +2.5 and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Seattle Seahawks 28 Arizona Cardinals 27 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

The 49ers won in a blowout as 6.5-point road favorites in Carolina last week, but it was surprising to see them still be 4.5-point road favorites in this game in Atlanta this week. The Falcons are a much more competent and better coached team than the Panthers and the 49ers’ still have concerns on offense that will show up in a tougher matchup. Even after last week’s performance in Carolina, the 49ers rank 21st in both first down rate and schedule adjusted efficiency and they also rank below average in my roster rankings on offense.

The 49ers still have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, but their running back group is depleted by injury and their offensive line lost a trio of starters this off-season and now is without Trent Williams, who will be filled in for this week by third stringer Jaylon Moore, after backup Colton McKivitz played admirably in their first game without Williams two weeks ago, before suffering an injury of his own. The 49ers have a strong defense, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they’ve struggled on special teams as well and, with offensive performance being significantly more predictive than defensive performance, the 49ers rank just 14th in overall efficiency, just a half point above average, while being a half point below average in my roster rankings, due to injuries. 

Given that, this line is way too high on the road against a competent Falcons team that has been competitive in all of their games, despite an above average schedule. My calculated line has the Falcons favored by 1.5 points, so we’re getting great line value with them at +4.5. The 49ers are also in a tough spot, with a bigger game on deck against the Chiefs that could easily be a distraction and make this a trap game. This is my favorite pick this week and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Atlanta Falcons 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +185

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Commanders, NFL Picks

Washington Commanders (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)

This is a tough call. Normally I like home favorites in non-divisional Thursday games because teams tend to be at a disadvantage when they travel on a short week to face a relatively unfamiliar opponent, unless they happen to be the significantly better team. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 63.2% rate on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest. The Bears are favored in this game, but only by one-point and, while the visiting Commanders aren’t drastically better than the Bears, they are still the significantly better team and, as a result, I have them as 1-point favorites on my calculated line. That’s not significant line value, but it probably nullifies any extra advantage the Bears would get at home on a short week against a non-divisional opponent. 

Both of these teams have struggled this season, but the Bears’ struggles have been even worse, even though they’ve managed to win one more game than Washington. In both of their wins, the Bears have lost the first down rate and yards per play battle, by 0.41% and 1.30 against the 49ers and by 1.39% and 0.08 against the Texans, winning those games as a result of much less predictive metrics than yards or first downs. In terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards, the Bears rank 30th, 2.5 points behind the 25th ranked Commanders. The Commanders also have a four point edge in my roster rankings. This is a no confidence pick because we’re only getting one point with the Commanders, but they should be slightly favored to win this game.

Washington Commanders 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +1

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 5 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Patriots

Detroit Lions (1-3) at New England Patriots (1-3)

Both of these teams are dealing with significant injury problems on offense. For the Patriots, the problem is that they are down to third string quarterback Bailey Zappe, a 4th round rookie and a significant downgrade from normal starter Mac Jones. The Lions, on the other hand, have starting quarterback Jared Goff healthy, but the problem is the sheer quantity of injuries around him on offense. Two of his top-4 wide receivers, DJ Chark and Quintez Cephus, are both out, while the other two are both questionable, with top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown seeming like a gametime decision at best, getting in just one limited practice on Friday, his first practice time since getting hurt two weeks prior. On top of that, feature back D’Andre Swift is also out.

The Lions still have the better offense than the Patriots, as they would if both teams were healthy, but the Patriots have a much bigger edge on the other side of the ball, with the Lions having arguably the worst defense in the league. Even with a third string quarterback under center, I have the Patriots calculated as 4-point favorites in this game, so we’re getting some line value with them at -3, though not nearly enough for them to be worth betting and if St Brown ends up playing I’ll probably drop all confidence on New England.

Update: St. Brown and fellow wide receiver Josh Reynolds are both playing, so I’ll lower this to no confidence.

New England Patriots 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week. I have the Ravens a couple points better than the Bengals in my roster rankings and they are at home, but being favored by 3.5 points is actually a lot, considering 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, including 1 in 6 games by exactly a field goal. Because of that, 3.5-point underdogs actually hit more often than any other number, covering the spread at a 53.0% rate all-time, which is actually profitable by itself. The Ravens should be significant favorites in this game, but I’m not sure if they can quite justify being favored by 3.5.

Making matters more complicated, the Ravens have some key players who are questionable. I expect left tackle Ronnie Stanley to play and cornerback Marcus Peters to sit, which is what my roster rankings assume, but neither of those are guaranteed and something unexpected happening with either of those players would have a significant impact on this game. I am taking the Bengals for a no confidence pick for now, mostly just because of how often 3.5-point underdogs cover, but if both Peters and Stanley play, I would probably change my pick to Baltimore and, if both Peters and Stanley are out, I may raise the confidence on Cincinnati.

Baltimore Ravens 34 Cincinnati Bengals 31

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)

The Chiefs are 3-1 and could easily be 4-0 if not for missed makeable kicks and turnovers in a 3-point loss to the Colts, a game in which the Chiefs won the first down rate battle by 5.50% and the yards per play battle by 1.50, which are both significantly more predictive than turnovers or special teams. In terms of overall efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play, the Chiefs rank 5th and my roster rankings have them as the most talented team in the league overall.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are 1-3, but all four of their games could have gone either way and their roster is middling overall. Despite that, they are only 7-point underdogs on the road in Kansas City, so we’re getting some line value with the Chiefs, who I have as 8 points better than the Raiders and 10-point home favorites on my calculated line. That being said, the Chiefs are in a bad spot this week, with a much tougher game against the Bills on deck, so I can’t be confident betting them. They are the right side for pick ‘em purposes though.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Low